Weekly Timeframe: The weekly timeframe shows that the 1.27541 weekly support flip level seems to be holding the market lower for the time being, which as a consequence forced price back down to a minor weekly demand area coming at 1.24996-1.26262.
Daily Timeframe: It was reported in the last analysis that if active sellers were to come into the market around the 1.27500 level (located just below the weekly support flip level mentioned above at 1.27541), we saw no reason why price could not drop down to at least the 1.26213 level, which is in actual fact is located just within the minor weekly demand area mentioned above at 1.24996-1.26262. As we can all see this did in fact happen. From here, price could either range between these two daily levels, or break below. A break below would likely force price to test a long-term daily demand area seen at 1.24642-1.25616, however let’s see what the 4hr timeframe has to offer us.
4hr Timeframe: The 4hr timeframe shows that price easily sliced through the consumed demand to the left (pink trendline) with no trouble at all. We still however feel there is a good chance that further selling will be seen, as the 4hr demand area at 1.26236-1.26469 has already likely been consumed (blue arrow – 1.26125), and that other than the 1.26 level, most of the demand below has also likely been consumed as well (check out the demand consumption tails around the green trend line). This effectively leaves the path clear down to around a 4hr Quasimodo support level seen at 1.25699 (active buy orders are seen just above at 1.25744).
With all the above taken into consideration, we have to be prepared for some sort of a pull back before price continues south. The most logical area where we would expect pro money to bring price to is around the ignored low coming in at 1.26835 (active sell orders are seen just below at 1.26791), since there are very likely some unfilled sell orders left there from the break.
- Buy orders: 1.25744 (Predicative stop-loss orders seen at: 1.25593).
- Sell orders: 1.26791 (Predicative stop-loss orders seen at: 1.27052).
Weekly Timeframe: For the past few weeks price has been trading around a weekly demand area coming in at 1.58533-1.60157. There has been some buying interest seen here, but nothing to get excited about. A break below would likely attract further selling down to a weekly resistance flip level seen at 1.57166.
Daily Timeframe: The daily timeframe shows why buying interest on the weekly timeframe is not anything to get excited about. Price has been consolidating between a minor daily support flip level seen at 1.61609 and a combined daily demand/Quasimodo support area coming in at 1.58533-1.59914/1.58934 since the 03/10/2014 (located deep within the aforementioned weekly demand area). It is only until one of these areas sees a positive close; we will then have some idea on future direction.
4hr Timeframe: The 4hr timeframe shows that price obliterated both the round number 1.61, and the 1.60871 level, which consequently forced the market down to around 1.6, where active buyers seem to be present.
We feel there is a good chance a move off of the 1.6 level will be seen at least up until the 1.60871 level (tentative sell orders are likely seen just below at 1.60803), since price is still trading around higher timeframe demand (Weekly: 1.58533-1.60157, Daily: 1.58533-1.59914/1.58934) at the moment. However, in the event that price closes below this level and a successful retest is seen, we see very little stopping price from dropping all the way down to at least 1.59. The reason for this is simply because of the buying tail seen marked with a blue arrow at 1.59398 has likely taken most of the demand out already.
Therefore, if a close below is seen, we will be looking for shorts targeting 1.59, on the other hand, if the market decides to honor 1.6 and continue higher, we will be watching the lower-timeframe action for a potential long trade targeting 1.60871.
- Buy orders: N/A (Predicative stop-loss orders seen at: N/A).
- Sell orders: 1.60803 [Tentative] (Predicative stop-loss orders seen at: 1.61062).
Weekly Timeframe: At the time of writing the weekly timeframe shows that the buyers attempted to trade out of the weekly demand area at 0.86591-0.88247, this was however unfortunately met with heavy selling around the 0.88874 weekly support flip level.
Daily Timeframe: The daily timeframe shows that price has been ranging ever since the 29/09/14 between a daily demand area at 0.86318-0.87183 and a daily decision-point supply area coming in at 0.88961-0.88302 (located nicely around the aforementioned weekly support flip level). However, during yesterday’s trading sessions, price broke above this range by a few pips; could this be a signal that the buyers are gaining strength? Let’s take a look on the 4hr timeframe to see what we can find.
4hr Timeframe: The 4hr timeframe shows that price clearly broke above the 4hr supply area seen at 0.88591-0.88275 in order to reach 0.89, where a sharp selloff shortly followed. This move forced price down past 0.88 into a small 4hr support level marked in green at 0.87878. Assuming price closes below this level, we could safely assume the breakout seen above the daily range was likely a fakeout, since price would then in our opinion be free to trade down to a combined 4hr demand/round number area at 0.86744-0.87235/0.87, which is conveniently located within the daily demand area (lower limits of the daily range) mentioned above at 0.86318-0.87183 (tentative buy orders are seen just above at 0.87297).
If price does indeed close below here, we would be looking to trade the retest targeting at least 0.87285. This trade could provide one a 3:1 risk/reward dependent upon where one placed their stop-loss order of course.
- Buy orders: 0.87297 [Tentative] (Predicative stop-loss orders seen at: 0.86483).
- Sell orders: N/A (Predicative stop-loss orders seen at: N/A).