EUR/USD:

Weekly Timeframe: The EUR/USD finished the week defending a major weekly supply area at 1.29941-1.28583, which as a result saw the market close at 1.27579, just above a weekly support flip level seen at 1.27541.

Weekly

Daily Timeframe: The daily timeframe shows price reacted nicely off of a daily supply area coming in at 1.29001-1.28453, which is located beautifully within the weekly supply area mentioned above at 1.29941-1.28583.

As per this timeframe, we feel there is a good chance that lower prices will be seen this week. The reason for this is because of the bullish pin-bar candle that formed on Thursday, as further buying was expected to follow; instead sellers came into the market. So, with this in mind, we believe Thursday’s pin-bar candle was in fact a demand consumption tail, which simply means it likely cleared out any buyers around the 1.27500 area, so that further selling could take place down to around the 1.26545 level.

Daily

4hr Timeframe: The 4hr timeframe shows that price still remains trading between a minor 4hr Quasimodo resistance level at 1.28667, and a round-number level coming in at 1.27.

Could we trade this range? We certainly could, but would only be possible in our opinion with lower-timeframe confirmation. Be that as it may, the 1.27 level in our opinion is vulnerable, and will likely break early during the week, where at which point we would then be looking to get short targeting the 4hr demand area seen at 1.26236-1.26469.

The 1.27 will likely see a break because of the following:

  1. Price is currently trading out off a weekly supply area seen at 1.29941-1.28583, and thus further selling is very possible.
  2. The daily timeframe shows the path south is likely clear down until 1.26545 level, which conveniently sits just above the aforementioned 4hr demand area.

Therefore, with all things considered, we remain flat on this pair until further developments are seen.

4hr

Buy/sell levels:

  • Buy orders: N/A (Predicative stop-loss orders seen at: N/A).
  • Sell orders: N/A (Predicative stop-loss orders seen at: N/A).

 

GBP/USD:

Weekly Timeframe: A beautiful buying tail (pin bar) was seen last week out of a weekly demand area at 1.58533-1.60157, which saw the market close at 1.60858. Does this mean we should all hit the buy button now?

weekly

Daily Timeframe: The daily timeframe shows that the market closed the week within a small daily decision-point supply area coming in at 1.61255-1.60948.  Therefore, anyone who entered long blindly off of the weekly pin bar candle has effectively bought into a daily supply area, and would now have to be prepared to suffer serious drawdown, as price could very well decline down towards the upper limit of the daily demand area at 1.58533-1.59914, or even worse, down to the daily Quasimodo support level seen extremely deep within this demand area at 1.58934.

daily

4hr Timeframe: The 4hr timeframe shows some very interesting price action, as the market closed just below a small 4hr decision-point supply area at 1.61344-1.61035 (located very deep within the daily decision-point supply area mentioned above at 1.61255-1.60948).

Take a look at how price approached this 4hr supply area, notice the buying tails marked with blue arrows at 1.60284/1.60585? This, in our opinion indicates buying strength, and as a result there is a good chance price could break above this 4hr supply area, which would likely attract further buying up to a combined 4hr supply/round number area at 1.62255-1.61910/1.62 (tentative sell orders are seen just below at 1.61849).

In the event the above does occur, this would consequently consume the daily decision-point supply area at 1.61255-1.60498, and very likely confirm buying strength out of the weekly demand area at 1.58533-1.60157 as well.

4hr

Buy/sell levels:

  • Buy orders: N/A (Predicative stop-loss orders seen at: N/A).
  • Sell orders: 1.61849 (Predicative stop-loss orders seen at: 1.62322).

 

AUD/USD:

Weekly Timeframe: Last week saw the buyers once again attempting to breakout north from the weekly demand area at 0.86591-0.88247, but as you can see the 0.88874 resistance barrier kept the market lower. Could this be a subtle hint that it’s ‘game over’ for this demand area?

WEEKLY

Daily Timeframe: The daily timeframe is currently showing indecision, as price is seen trading between a daily demand area at 0.86183-0.87183, and a daily decision-point supply area coming in at 0.88961-0.88302. In our opinion, until either one of these areas break, there is no clear direction on this timeframe. Therefore, going long within the aforementioned weekly demand area may not be the best path to take until the daily decision-point supply area mentioned above is consumed.

daily

4hr Timeframe: Last week’s action shows there is a definite consolidation in play here between the combined 4hr demand/round-number area at 0.86744-0.87235/0.87 (tentative buy orders are seen just above at 0.87297), and the 4hr supply area above at 0.88975-0.88614 (tentative sell orders are seen just below at 0.88566). Opportunities to trade this 4hr range are clearly evident, but we would not recommend entering blindly here with limit orders, rather we would seek lower-timeframe confirmation that price will likely move in our chosen direction. What we mean by this is simply to wait for an opposing decision-point area to be consumed on your chosen timeframe before considering entering the market, as this 4hr range could break at any time.

4hr

Buy/sell levels:

  • Buy orders: 0.87297 (Predicative stop-loss orders seen at: 0.86483).
  • Sell orders: 0.88566 (Predicative stop-loss orders seen at: 0.89061).

 

USD/JPY:

Weekly Timeframe: Last week saw the market react beautifully off of a weekly resistance flip level coming in at 105.432, which resulted in the market closing at 106.839. Is this level really enough to put a halt on the selling that was recently seen out of the weekly supply area above at 110.625-108.123?

Weekly

Daily Timeframe: The daily timeframe shows that the market closed the week within a fresh daily decision-point supply area seen at 107.486-106.661. In the event price breaks above this area, any traders that got short around the aforementioned weekly supply area may want to consider closing some or all of their position, since price could trade right back to your entry level. However, assuming selling interest comes into the market here, this could potentially signal that lower prices will be seen down to at least the daily decision-point demand area at 104.674-105.244.

daily

4hr Timeframe: The 4hr timeframe shows that deep within the aforementioned daily decision-point supply area there is a 4hr fresh rally base drop supply area seen at 107.486-107.035 (active sell orders are seen just below at 106.977).

(Similar to what we have already mentioned in the daily-timeframe analysis above) In the event price breaks above this area, any traders that got short around the aforementioned weekly supply area may want to consider closing some or all of their position as you may run the risk of turning a current winning trade into a losing one! However, assuming selling interest comes into the market here, this could potentially signal that lower prices will be seen at least down until the 106 level.

4hr

Buy/sell levels:

  • Buy orders: N/A (Predicative stop-loss orders seen at: N/A).
  • Sell orders: 106.977 (Predicative stop-loss orders seen at: 107.530).

 

EUR/GBP:

Weekly Timeframe: Last week started off looking so positive with serious buying interest being seen out of a weekly demand area at 0.76931-0.78623. However, this was quickly brought to a halt when sellers came into the market around the 0.80351 level, which as a result saw price close the week at 0.79228.

Weekly

Daily Timeframe: The daily timeframe on the other hand shows that the 0.80351 level is a nice-looking daily Quasimodo resistance level. If further selling comes into the market this week, which we believe it will, there is very little in our opinion stopping price from reaching the daily decision-point demand area seen at 0.78468-0.78986.

daily

4hr Timeframe: The 4hr timeframe shows a potential near-term support level coming in at 0.79144 (active buy orders are seen just above at 0.79161). We feel there is a good chance a bullish reaction will be seen here, but at the same time keeping in mind that price could very well fakeout below to the 0.79 level (located just above the daily decision-point demand area at 0.78468-0.78986), so do be careful where you place your stop-loss order!  In the event a bullish reaction is seen here, we’ll be targeting the fresh 4hr supply area seen above at 0.79802-0.79590, as it is very likely there will be some active sellers waiting around the 0.79569 level.

4hr

Buy/sell levels:

  • Buy orders: 0.79161 (Predicative stop-loss orders seen at: 0.78949).
  • Sell orders: 0.79569 (Predicative stop-loss orders seen at: 0.79821).

 

USD/CAD:

Weekly Timeframe: Last week shows that the buyers were unable to close above the 1.12775 high. Be that as it may, we still feel that the majority of sellers here were well and truly consumed with that humongous wick, and as a result there is a good chance higher prices could still be seen.

weekly

Daily Timeframe: The daily timeframe shows that even though price was unable to close above the 1.12775 high on the weekly timeframe, it certainly did on the daily timeframe. In addition to this, Friday’s trading sessions formed a beautiful-looking bullish pin-bar candle that potentially signals higher prices may follow.

Daily

4hr Timeframe: With the weekly timeframe indicating higher prices could be seen, along with the daily timeframe printing a bullish pin-bar candle, it is only natural to begin looking for buying opportunities. The 4hr timeframe also shows there is room for prices to rally higher at least up until the psychological number 1.13 (tentative sell orders seen just below at 1.12964). However, it is only until price breaks above, and successfully retests this level as support would we be interested in buying, as from here it is very likely a rally in price will be seen up to the 1.14 psychological level. Why not the 4hr supply area just above at 1.13842-1.13352? The answer is simply because this area of 4hr supply has been hit already been hit, and as such the majority of sell orders are likely already consumed, thus indicating potential weakness.

4hr

Buy/sell levels:

  • Buy orders: N/A (Predicative stop-loss orders seen at: N/A).
  • Sell orders: 1.12964 (Predicative stop-loss orders seen at: 1.13170).

 

USD/CHF:

Weekly Timeframe: Selling interest was seen last week out of a weekly supply area coming in at 0.98378-0.95895. However, active buyers came into the market around the 0.93589 level, and forced price to close above a weekly resistance flip level seen at 0.94546. Was this a fakeout to accumulate liquidity for higher prices, or was it merely to stop out as many buyers as possible to clear the path south for future selling?

Weekly

Daily Timeframe: The daily timeframe shows that price action is currently confined to trading between a daily supply area at 0.95613-0.94675, and a daily decision-point demand area seen at 0.93522-0.93970. It is only until one of these areas sees a break; we will then have some idea regarding possible future direction.

Concerning the question posed in the weekly timeframe analysis section above, it appears a fakeout has ‘possibly’ occurred below the weekly resistance flip level mentioned above at 0.94546, since price traded directly into the aforementioned daily decision-point demand area. Be that as it may, a fakeout in our opinion will only be confirmed once or indeed if price closes above the aforementioned daily supply area.

In the event price breaks below the aforementioned daily decision-point demand area however, this will then inform us that price will likely decline in value, and as a result confirm selling strength from the weekly supply area mentioned above at 0.98378-0.95895.

daily

4hr Timeframe: The 4hr timeframe shows price reacted beautifully off of a 4hr Quasimodo support level seen at 0.93774 (located deep within the daily decision-point demand area mentioned above at 0.93522-0.93970). As a consequence, price rallied up to a small 4hr decision-point supply area at 0.94729-0.94597, and broke above it (circled in red) likely consuming the majority of traders who attempted to fade this area in the process.

Since the path north appears to be relatively clear now, we feel there is a good chance that sometime early this week we will see price rally up to at least the 0.95 level (tentative sell orders are seen just below at 0.94971), and possibly even the 4hr supply area above at 0.95613-0.95298 (active sell orders seen just below at 0.95256) given enough time (both areas are located deep within the daily supply area mentioned above at 0.95613-0.94675).

4hr

Buy/sell levels:

  • Buy orders: N/A (Predicative stop-loss orders seen at: N/A).
  • Sell orders: 0.94971 (Predicative stop-loss orders seen at: 0.95113) 0.95256 (Predicative stop-loss orders seen at: 0.95649).

 

XAU/USD (GOLD):

Weekly Timeframe: The rebound from the weekly demand area at 1156.70-1194.45 extended higher last week up to a weekly support flip level coming in at 1244.08, and as per this timeframe, it appears there was a little selling interest seen here just before the market closed for the week at 1238.29.

Weekly

Daily Timeframe: The daily timeframe shows that the minor selling interest seen on the weekly timeframe brought price down to a small daily resistance flip level marked in pink at 1235.54, where active buyers came into the market on Friday.

In the event further buying is seen, and price closes above the 1244.08 weekly level, we can likely expect a rally higher up to at least a daily supply area at 1277.11-1260.46. Likewise, assuming sellers enter the market here, we can likely expect a decline in value down towards the 1206.49 support flip level.

daily

4hr Timeframe: It was mentioned in Friday’s analysis that if price broke below the small 4hr decision-point demand area at 1234.07-1238.94, it was very likely a decline in value would be seen down towards the 4hr demand area at 1221.78-1227.37. As we can all see, a break below this area was indeed seen late on Friday (marked with a blue arrow). Assuming a small rally higher in price is seen up to a 4hr supply area at 1250.85-1243.69 sometime this week, we then believe there is a short-term selling opportunity on gold at from around the 1243.57 level. An appropriate first take-profit target in our opinion would be the 4hr demand area mentioned above at 1221.78-1227.37.

4hr

Buy/sell levels:

  • Buy orders: N/A (Predicative stop-loss orders seen at: N/A).
  • Sell orders: 1243.57 (Predicative stop-loss orders seen at: 1252.26).