EUR/USD:

Weekly Timeframe: Not a lot of movement has been seen on the weekly timeframe since the previous analysis, and as such, price remains trading around the Weekly demand swap level coming in at 1.26591-1.28010.

Daily Timeframe: The daily timeframe shows that the buyers and sellers are currently battling it out around the 1.26837 level. A break above here would not only confirm buying strength from the daily demand area below (1.24642-1.25616), but would also likely encourage further buying up to at least the daily supply area at 1.29001-1.28453.

4hr Timeframe: The 4hr timeframe shows that there were clearly some unfilled sell orders around the 1.26580 area. This should come as no surprise, since this is likely the point where big sell orders were pumped into the market as a result of the positive NFP numbers announced on Friday last week. The EUR/USD did indeed fall from the 1.26580 area, but it was not long before the market found support around the 1.26 level and allowed buyers to come back into the market. This subsequently saw price rally up to a combined 4hr supply/round number area seen at 1.27012-1.26806/1.27.

In our humble opinion, we believe its decision time on this pair. Prices can either break above the aforementioned combined 4hr supply/round number area, which would likely confirm that the short-term direction is north at least up until the 4hr supply area at 1.27636-1.27268 (active sell orders likely set below at 1.27226). On the other hand, selling interest could very well come into the market here, and trade back down to the 1.26 level, which under those circumstances would create a temporary 4hr consolidation area.

EURUSD 4HR

Buy/sell levels:

  • Buy orders: N/A (Predicative stop-loss orders seen at: N/A).
  • Sell orders: 1.27226 (Predicative stop-loss orders seen at: 1.27714).

 

GBP/USD:

Weekly Timeframe: There is clear buying interest being shown within the weekly demand area at 1.58533-1.60157. Could we be seeing the start of higher prices here?

Daily Timeframe: After looking at the daily chart for some time now. We have come to the conclusion that a deep fakeout of the huge psychological number 1.6 may have happened, hence the current higher prices being seen on the pound lately. It seems from here that the path north is likely free up to the 1.62503 level, since any selling opposition has already likely been consumed around the daily demand swap area coming in at 1.60507-1.61044.

4hr Timeframe: The 4hr timeframe on the other hand is telling a different story. Fakeout wicks (1.61154/1.61276) have pierced through the 1.61 level into a small 4hr decision-point supply area (1.61416-1.61237), which has no doubt filled any sellers with orders just below around the 1.61183 area. Equally important was the approach to this small 4hr decision-point area, notice the demand consumption wicks (1.60250/1.60432/1.60706)? This was in all likelihood well-funded traders spiking south to collect unfilled buy orders whilst rally higher, but at the same time this type of move also clears the path south for any future selling!

Let’s quickly recap here:

  • Price is trading out of weekly demand at 1.58533-1.60157 = good for buying!
  • Price appears to have faked below the 1.6 level seen clearly on the daily timeframe = good for buying!
  • The 4hr timeframe shows that if the sellers wanted to bring prices back down to the 1.6 level (active buy orders may well be set above at 1.60052), or even the fakeout demand zone below at 1.59529-1.59764 (active buy orders may well be set above at 1.59797), they could do so with little buying opposition in their way to stop them.

So, with the above in mind, we are expecting higher prices, however, at the same time we are fully prepared for a retracement down to at least the 1.6 level beforehand.

GBPUSD 4HR

Buy/sell levels:

  • Buy orders: 1.60052 (Predicative stop-loss orders seen at: 1.59760) 1.59797 (Predicative stop-loss orders seen at: 1.59479).
  • Sell orders: N/A (Predicative stop-loss orders seen at: N/A).

 

AUD/USD:

Weekly Timeframe: With regards to the spike/tail that was seen below the weekly demand area at 0.86591-0.88247 last week, we was not sure whether this was a consumption tail for lower prices, or a fakeout to push higher. However, with the recent bullish activity being seen at the moment, we are for the time being favoring a fakeout.

Daily Timeframe: The daily timeframe on the other hand shows that the buyers have a potential obstacle in their way in the form of a daily supply area coming in at 0.88961-0.88302. Assuming the buyers can overcome any selling opposition that may present itself here, a fakeout of the weekly demand area mentioned above at 0.86591-0.88247 would very likely be confirmed.

4hr Timeframe: The 4hr timeframe shows that price has recently broken above the 0.88 level, and is currently retesting it as potential support. If the buyers can hold above here, we may very likely see a rally higher up to at least the 4hr supply area at 0.88961-0.88629. Active sellers are expected to come into the market here around the 0.88574 level, since this area has added weight due to it being located deep within the daily supply area mentioned above at 0.88961-0.88302.

Traders looking to jump in on a potential move higher from the 0.88 level would do better looking for price action confirmation on the lower timeframes, rather than just entering blindly here, since these psychological levels are prone to deep tests that stop countless traders out each and every time, so trade with caution.

AUD 4HR

Buy/sell levels:

  • Buy orders: N/A (Predicative stop-loss orders seen at: N/A)
  • Sell orders: 0.88574 (Predicative stop-loss orders seen at: 0.89055).

 

USD/JPY:

Weekly Timeframe: The weekly timeframe shows that selling interest is beginning to come into the market within a weekly supply area seen at 110.652-108.123. Assuming further selling is seen, we can likely expect prices to trade down to at least the weekly resistance flip level coming in at 105.432.

Daily Timeframe: A significant close below the 108.575 level has recently been seen on the daily timeframe, and with that in mind this likely confirms selling strength from the weekly supply area mentioned above at 110.652-108.123.  Overall, we are expecting lower prices down to at least the daily decision-point area coming in at 106.799-107.383. Be that as it may, we have to be prepared for a small rally in price beforehand up to the 108.575 level to collect any unfilled sell orders that may remain. This, in our opinion will only be seen if the big boys require more sell orders to push lower.

4hr Timeframe: For anyone who entered short at the combined 4hr supply/round-number area above at 110.081-109.712/110, very well done, the risk/reward on that trade is fantastic!

Price is currently trading around the 108 level at the moment, where a deep tail/spike has been seen testing this area. A close below this level would likely attract further selling down to a combined 4hr demand/round-number area at 106.799-107.048/107.It would be at this point where we would expect active buyers to come into the market around the 107.126 level, since this area sits deep within the daily decision-point area at 106.799-107.383.

For any traders wishing to catch this potential move south may want to wait for the close below the 107 level first. This would likely serve us better than entering straight after the break. Once a close below is seen, one could then try and attempt to enter short on the retest, preferably with lower-timeframe confirmation.

USDJPY 4HR

Buy/sell levels:

  • Buy orders: 107.126 (Predicative stop-loss orders seen at: 106.737)
  • Sell orders: N/A (Predicative stop-loss orders seen at: N/A).

 

EUR/GBP:

Weekly Timeframe: The weekly timeframe shows price is currently trading within a monster weekly demand area at 0.76931-0.78623. Does this mean we should be preparing ourselves for a rally higher in price?

Daily Timeframe: Last week showed that there was clear buying interest around a daily demand area at 0.77507-0.77772. Be that as it may, the only way in our opinion to find out if this buying was legit, and not just traders liquidating their short positions, would be to see price close above the 0.78729 level. Furthermore, this would likely also confirm buying strength from the weekly demand area mentioned above at 0.76931-0.78623.

4hr Timeframe: The 4hr timeframe shows that price broke higher during Monday’s trading sessions, and came very close to hitting the 0.78777 level (Quasimodo resistance) before active sellers came into the market. Admittedly, we expected price to trade a little higher to at least the 0.78754 level before a down move was seen.

At the time of writing, buyers have come into the market within a neat-looking 4hr demand area coming in at 0.78271-0.78399. Could this be all the buyers need to push prices above the 0.78777 level?  With this in mind, traders who are currently long here may want to take into consideration the 4hr resistance flip level just below at 0.78195 for stop-loss purposes, since price may fakeout below the 4hr demand area into this level!

As a final point, if a significant break below the 0.78195 level is seen, we can very likely expect price to hit a combined 4hr decision-point/round number area at 0.77891-0.77982/0.78, where buy orders are likely set just above at 0.78026.

EURGBP 4HR

Buy/sell levels:

  • Buy orders: 0.78026 (Predicative stop-loss orders seen at: 0.77865).
  • Sell orders: N/A (Predicative stop-loss orders seen at: N/A).

 

USD/CAD:

Weekly Timeframe: It seems for the time being active selling has come into the market around a major weekly high seen at 1.12775, and as such a double-top formation may be in the process of forming. Assuming follow-through selling is seen from here, the sellers could very well bring prices down to a weekly support flip level at 1.09645, where at which point we expect active buyers to come into the market.

Daily Timeframe: There were clearly active sellers seen within daily supply at 1.12775-1.12361 during Monday’s trading sessions, just look at that (near) full-bodied bearish candle dropping a little over 150 points, beautiful! Providing that this selling momentum continues, it is very likely price will once again hit the daily decision-point area at 1.10521-1.10826.

4hr Timeframe: Taking into account the recent sell-off seen from the 4hr Quasimodo resistance level at 1.12704, we still have our eye on the 4hr demand area coming in at 1.10521-1.10758. We feel this area will likely see a bounce at the very least (active buy orders potentially set above around the 1.10794 level), our reasons for which are as follows:

  1. This 4hr demand area was able to hold prices up once already on the 02/10/2014 at 1.10704 – just look at that reaction! There was clearly buying strength there!
  2. The psychological 1.11 level is 20 or so pips above the 4hr demand area. Why is that important? Well, these round-number levels tend to get tested, and at times these tests can be extremely deep! Assuming this level does indeed get tested, where is the likely place price will travel to next looking for buy orders? It will likely be the aforementioned 4hr demand area below!
  3. This 4hr demand area also sits nicely within a daily decision-point area seen at 1.10521-1.10826 giving this area extra strength.

However, before this area of 4hr demand gets hit, we have to be prepared for a small rally higher may be seen up to the 1.12 level to collect any unfilled sell orders that may remain (1.11957), before price continues south.

USDCAD 4HR

Buy/sell levels:

  • Buy orders: 1.10794 (Predicative stop-loss orders seen at: 1.10476).
  • Sell orders: 1.11957 (Predicative stop-loss orders seen at: 1.12266).

 

USD/CHF:

Weekly Timeframe: The weekly timeframe shows selling interest is currently being seen within a weekly supply area coming in at 0.98378-0.95895. Assuming this selling momentum continues, it is very likely prices will trade down to at least the 0.94546 level, where at which point, we expect active buyers to come into the market.

Daily Timeframe: Taking into consideration that the weekly timeframe is showing selling activity within a weekly supply area (levels above) at the moment. The daily timeframe on the other hand is showing a potential road bump (daily decision-point demand area seen at 0.95163-0.95581) that could temporarily stop prices trading lower. In the event that the sellers can overcome any potential buying opposition here; this would likely attract further selling down to yet another daily decision-point demand area coming in at 0.93522-0.93970, which is a little less than 60 points below the weekly (0.94546) level mentioned above.

4hr Timeframe: The 4hr timeframe shows that price literally dropped like a rock from the lower of the two stacked 4hr supply areas at 0.97152-0.96744. This downward momentum saw prices close below the 0.96 level, which is where price has been seen ranging for the past 12 hours or so. One can only imagine what torment this ranging action is causing to the lower-timeframe traders at the moment!

With the above taken into consideration, this is how we see things playing out from here. Price will likely spike down towards a small 4hr demand area at 0.95163-0.95432 (conveniently located deep within the daily decision-point demand area seen at 0.95163-0.95581) to collect any unfilled buy orders that are likely set around the 0.95496 level.

From there on, price will then likely trade higher towards the 4hr ‘extreme’ supply area coming in at 0.97505-0.97153 within the stacked supply formation, where at which point we expect active sellers to come into the market around the 0.97106 level.  On a side note, regarding stacked supply areas, in our experience we have seen price trade to the ‘extreme’ areas within both supply and demand stacked formations more often than not, since most well-informed traders attempt to get the best prices on all moves, and the best prices are usually very deep within areas of interest.

USDCHF 4HR

Buy/sell levels:

  • Buy orders: 0.95496 (Predicative stop-loss orders seen at: 0.95077).
  • Sell orders: 0.97106 (Predicative stop-loss orders seen at: 0.97592).

 

XAU/USD (GOLD)

Weekly Timeframe: The weekly timeframe shows active buying interest is currently being seen around a weekly demand area at 1156.70-1194.45, is it time to be looking for buying opportunities?

Daily Timeframe: The daily timeframe is currently showing some very beautiful price action. The sellers around the 1206.49 level have in our opinion been well and truly consumed. Check out the small wick at 1213.35, this candle very likely consumed the last of the sell orders which should theoretically allow prices to trade all the way up to at least a daily supply area coming in at 1241.95-1235.34. The reasoning for price being able to trade this high is simply because to the left of current price action shows that the majority of supply has likely already been consumed. Take a look at those prominent consumption wicks at 1222.41/1231.18; it’s a thing of beauty!

4hr Timeframe: The 4hr timeframe shows that in order for price to continue higher, the buyers have to break above a 4hr supply area coming in at 1215.24-1211.29. This will very likely attract follow-through buying up to at least the 4hr supply area at 1239.37-1233.79 (active sell orders are likely set just below at 1233.01), which is conveniently located just within the daily supply area mentioned above at 1241.95-1235.34. The reasons for price being able to trade that high is simply because (exactly the same as the daily timeframe analysis) history shows that supply has already likely been consumed. However, even after a break above the 4hr supply area at 1215.24-1211.29, we have to be prepared for a sneaky fakeout below the low 1202.82 (marked in pink), as well-funded traders will likely need liquidity (sell orders for their buys) to push prices higher. This could provide a beautiful entry long if one times it correctly!

GOLD 4HR

Buy/sell levels:

  • Buy orders: N/A (Predicative stop-loss orders seen at: N/A).
  • Sell orders: 1233.01 (Predicative stop-loss orders seen at: 1240.71).