EUR/USD:

Weekly Timeframe: Following a break of the weekly demand area at 1.26591-1.28010 last week. This week however began with buying interest coming into the market almost immediately around the 1.25079 level. Let’s see what we can find on the lower timeframes.

Daily Timeframe: The daily timeframe shows buying interest is currently being seen out of a daily demand area at 1.24642-1.25616. However, considering price is not trading around any obvious weekly demand area at the moment, the buyers will need to prove that this area of daily demand is worthy, by breaking above the 1.26837 level. This would likely indicate buying strength, and as a result could see prices rallying higher up to a daily supply area seen at 1.29001-1.28453.

4hr Timeframe: The 4hr timeframe shows that once the market opened deep within a combined 4hr demand/round number area (1.25005-1.25362/1.25) at 1.25112, the buyers took full control. Price has so far rallied around 160 pips in total, breaking the 1.26 level along the way. Be that as it may, the buyers could have met their match, since they are at the time of writing seen trading around what we’d like to believe was the origin of the NFP downside move (see the red circle) around the 1.26580 area, where unfilled sell orders have already likely been filled, or are in the process of getting filled.

Two things can happen here in our opinion:

  • Any unfilled sell orders left over from the NFP move will likely get filled, and push prices south down to at least the 1.26 level (active buy orders likely set just above at 1.26060).
  • Buying interest can come into the market and push price above the combined 4hr supply/round number area at 1.27012-1.26806/1.27, which would likely confirm higher prices are to be expected.

EURUSD 4HR

Buy/sell levels:

  • Buy orders: 1.26060 (Predicative stop-loss orders seen at: 1.25853).
  • Sell orders: N/A (Predicative stop-loss orders seen at: N/A).

 

GBP/USD:

Weekly Timeframe: As expected, higher prices are indeed being seen out of the weekly demand area coming in at 1.58533-1.60157.

Daily Timeframe: Following the strong break of a daily demand area (1.60507-1.61044) seen on Friday, the market seems to have found strong support around the 1.59529 level, and as a result has pushed prices back into the this area of daily demand, making it a valid swap zone now.

4hr Timeframe: The 4hr timeframe shows no clear area of 4hr demand in our opinion that would justify a 144 pip rally in price like we just saw. All we can see is that the1.59500 level was clearly supportive enough to turn things around. With that being said though, we have to remember the fact that price is currently trading out of a weekly demand area (1.58533-1.60157) at the moment, so theoretically, we do not need lower timeframe demand to move prices higher, as the higher timeframes usually overrule.

Nonetheless, at this point in time, it appears selling interest is coming into the market around the 1.61 level. Assuming follow-through selling is seen today, we may see a nice move south towards the 1.60 level, where it is very likely that unfilled buy orders await just above around the 1.60052 area. With that being said though, we must also be prepared for a a break above the 1.61 level, which would almost immediately see prices trading around a small 4hr decision-point (supply) area at 1.61416-1.61237 (active sell orders likely set just below at 1.61183).

GBP 4HR

Buy/sell levels:

  • Buy orders: 1.60052 (Predicative stop-loss orders seen at: 1.59760).
  • Sell orders: 1.61183 (Predicative stop-loss orders seen at: 1.61450).

 

AUD/USD:

Weekly Timeframe: The weekly timeframe shows that last week price spiked below the weekly demand area coming in at 0.86591-0.88247. Was this spike to clear the buyers out to continue south, or was it merely a push lower to accumulate liquidity (fakeout) for a move higher? It will be interesting to see what the lower timeframes have to say.

Daily Timeframe: The daily timeframe shows price is currently trading out of a daily demand area at 0.86183-0.87183. A break above the near-term daily supply area coming in at 0.88961-0.88302 would likely imply that the spike below the weekly demand area mentioned above was indeed a fakeout, and that we should expect higher prices to follow. On the other hand, if the aforementioned daily demand area fails, and a significant push below is seen, it is very likely continuation selling will follow, and thus would likely confirm that the spike below the weekly demand area was indeed a consumption spike, and not a fakeout.

4hr Timeframe: As reported in the previous analysis, we felt that the spike below the 4hr support level/minor low at 0.86591/0.86622 was likely a fakeout, since in our opinion we have already had a signal that price could trade up to at least the 4hr supply area coming in at 0.88961-0.88629 (located deep within a daily supply area at 0.88961-0.88302), where we believe there to be active sell orders waiting just below, around the 0.88574 level. This signal came in the form of price pushing above the combined 4hr supply/round number area seen at 0.88122-0.87511/0.88 (marked with a blue arrow [0.88258]), which very likely stopped out a ton of sellers in the process, and also trapped a lot of breakout buyers.

Assuming price can overcome any selling opposition (we do not expect much) there may be around the 0.88 level (0.87955); a strong move north will likely follow.

AUD 4HR

Buy/sell levels:

  • Buy orders: N/A (Predicative stop-loss orders seen at: N/A).
  • Sell orders: 0.88574 (Predicative stop-loss orders seen at: 0.89055) 0.87955 (Predicative stop-loss orders seen at: 0.88334).

 

USD/JPY:

Weekly Timeframe: The weekly timeframe shows that selling interest is beginning to come into the market seen within weekly supply seen at 110.652-108.123. Assuming further selling is seen, we can likely expect prices to trade down to at least the weekly resistance flip level coming in at 105.432.

Daily Timeframe: Price is currently trading around a major support flip level seen at 108.575. If price significantly breaks below this level, we can likely expect lower prices down to around the daily decision-point area at 106.799-107.108, which at the same time would likely confirm selling strength from the weekly supply area mentioned above at 110.652-108.123.

4hr Timeframe: For anyone who follows our analysis regularly, you may recall us mentioning to watch out for a possible move south from the combined 4hr supply/round number area coming in at 110.081-109.712/110, which as we all can see is working out beautifully so far!

At the time of writing, price has closed below the 109 level. This could be a good opportunity to get in on the retest around the 108.948 area, and target the 108 level, since price currently has higher-timeframe ‘energy’ supporting it from the weekly supply area at 110.652-108.123.

USDJPY 4HR

Buy/sell levels:

  • Buy orders: N/A (Predicative stop-loss orders seen at: N/A).
  • Sell orders: 108.948 (Predicative stop-loss orders seen at: 109.135).

 

EUR/GBP:

Weekly Timeframe: The weekly timeframe shows price is currently trading within a monster weekly demand area at 0.76931-0.78623. Does this mean we should be preparing ourselves for a rally in price?

Daily Timeframe: Last week showed there was clear buying interest around the daily demand area at 0.77507-0.77772. Be that as it may, the only way in our opinion to find out if this buying was legit, and not just traders liquidating their short positions, would be to see price close above the 0.78729 level, and as a result this would likely also confirm buying strength from the weekly demand area mentioned above at 0.76931-0.78623.

4hr Timeframe: Buy orders (0.78221) have already been filled around the 4hr resistance flip level at 0.78195, and as a result a rally higher in price followed.  Potential selling opposition has likely been consumed around the 0.78439 level marked in pink, and as such the path north is likely clear up to at least the 4hr Quasimodo resistance level seen at 0.78777 (lines up beautifully with the daily support flip level at 0.78729). This would make a fantastic take-profit area for anyone long at the moment, as we believe there to be active sellers waiting just below at 0.78754.

However, In the event that a break below the 0.78195 level is seen, we can very likely expect price to hit a combined 4hr decision-point/round number area at 0.77891-0.77982/0.78, where buy orders are likely set just above at 0.78026.

EURGBP 4HR

Buy/sell levels:

  • Buy orders: 0.78026 (Predicative stop-loss orders seen at: 0.77865).
  • Sell orders: 0.78754 (Predicative stop-loss orders seen at: 0.78909).

 

USD/CAD:

Weekly Timeframe: A positive close above a weekly Quasimodo resistance level coming in at 1.12231 was seen last week, and at the time of writing, price is currently retesting this level as potential support. Assuming this level holds, a possible rally could ensue all the way up to a weekly supply area seen at 1.17225-1.15417.

Daily Timeframe: For the weekly Quasimodo resistance flip level (1.12231) to hold, the buyers will need to overcome any selling opposition that may reside within a daily supply area at 1.12775-1.12361. On the other hand, if further selling interest comes into the market (as it appears to be doing right now), then it is very possible we’ll see a push down towards a daily decision-point demand area at 1.10521-1.10826.

4hr Timeframe: Ouch! A small 4hr decision-point area (1.12226-1.12430) has been consumed, which likely means price is now ‘theoretically’ free to trade down to at least the 1.12 level, where there may be active buy orders waiting around the 1.12045 area. At this point in time, things do look at all good for a bullish reaction to be seen off of the weekly Quasimodo resistance flip level (1.12231) at the moment, unless this round-number level holds of course.

With the above in mind, we have to be prepared for price to break through the 1.12 level, and continue south down towards at least a small 4hr decision-point demand area coming in at 1.11636-1.11765. Granted, a bullish reaction could be seen here, but what really takes our fancy even more is that juicy 4hr demand area below at 1.10521-1.10758 (active buy orders likely set around the 1.10794 level). The reason for this is simple. This area is located very deep within the daily decision-point demand area mentioned above at 1.10521-1.10826.

USDCAD 4HR

Buy/sell levels:

  • Buy orders: 1.12045 (Predicative stop-loss orders seen at: 1.11750) 1.10794 (Predicative stop-loss orders seen at: 1.10476).
  • Sell orders: N/A (Predicative stop-loss orders seen at: N/A).

 

USD/CHF:

Weekly Timeframe: A full-bodied bullish candle formed last week resulting in price trading relatively deep within a weekly supply area seen at 0.98378-0.95895. As per this timeframe, we are naturally expecting lower prices to be seen this week.

Daily Timeframe: At the time of writing, the daily timeframe is showing selling interest coming into the market within a daily supply area at 0.97505-0.96339. In the event this selling activity continues, it is very likely price will trade down towards at least the daily decision-point area coming in at 0.95163-0.95581.

4hr Timeframe: The market opened higher within the lower of the two stacked 4hr supply areas (0.97152-0.96744) at 0.96876. Regarding stacked supply areas, in our experience we have seen price trade to the ‘extreme’ areas more often than not. In this case, the extreme area would be the higher of the two coming in at 0.97505-0.97153.

Taking the above into consideration, if buying interest comes into the market around the small 4hr decision-point area seen at 0.96358-0.96603, this may be enough to allow price to rally higher up to the aforementioned 4hr (extreme) supply area, which in turn will likely fill active sell orders lurking around the 0.97106 level. However, assuming price breaks below the 4hr decision-point area, price will very likely at least trade down towards the 0.96 level, where at which point, this could trigger active buy orders (0.96049) that with a little effort may still push prices up to the extreme area of 4hr supply, but as always, only time will tell!

On a side note, any traders considering shorting the 0.97 level may want to take into account the aforementioned stacked supply area for stop-loss purposes, since a deep test of the round-number level will very likely be seen. The safest bet in our opinion would be to place stops above the extreme supply area around the 0.97582 level.

USDCHF 4HR

Buy/sell levels:

  • Buy orders: 0.96049 (Predicative stop-loss orders seen at: 0.95828).
  • Sell orders: 0.97106 (Predicative stop-loss orders seen at: 0.97592).

 

XAU/USD (GOLD)

Weekly Timeframe: The weekly timeframe shows active buying interest is currently being seen around a weekly demand area at 1156.70-1194.45, is it time to be looking for buying opportunities?

Daily Timeframe: Price has played out exactly as expected on the daily timeframe. A small fakeout was seen just below the daily Quasimodo support level (1186.83) into a major daily support level coming in at 1182.01, where at which point, solid buying interest entered the market. However, for prices to continue higher from here, the buyers have to overcome potential selling opposition around the 1206.49 level.

4hr Timeframe: There were clearly unfilled buy orders lurking just above the 4hr demand area at 1178.86-1118.16, which was reported in the previous analysis. The 1206.49 level seen on the daily timeframe is actually a small 4hr supply flip area on the 4hr timeframe at 1208.18-1204.31; where at the time of writing price is currently trading at. Even if a small decline is seen from here, we are still very confident higher prices will at least reach the 1228.46 (active sell orders expected just below at 1227.76) level, since in our opinion most of the supply has already been consumed. For instance, take note of the pink downtrend line, and more specifically the supply consumption wicks seen at 1215.24/1218.92.

GOLD 4HR

Buy/sell levels:

  • Buy orders: N/A (Predicative stop-loss orders seen at: N/A).
  • Sell orders: 1227.76 (Predicative stop-loss orders seen at: 1232.12).