Weekly Timeframe: At the time of writing, price is trading very deep within a weekly (demand) ‘buy zone’ at 1.26591-1.28010 with very little buying interest being seen at the moment. A close below here would likely attract further selling down towards a combined weekly demand/Quasimodo support area at 1.22403-1.24420/1.22866.
Daily Timeframe: The daily timeframe shows price is currently trading around a daily demand swap zone seen at 1.26229-1.26742. Will this zone be enough to support the buyers, or will it crumble under the prevailing downtrend?
4hr Timeframe: On the 4hr timeframe, in our opinion, we do have some bullish price action. Notice how price closed above the 1.27 level consuming the majority of traders attempting to play the retest, and as such, potentially clearing the path north up to at least a 4hr supply area seen at 1.27597-1.27390 (active sell orders seen just below at 1.27350).
Buy orders have very likely already been filled just above the 4hr demand area (1.26591-1.26840) at 1.26882, with the possibility of price rallying to the aforementioned 4hr supply area – not bad risk to reward! Be that as it may, with the current weakness being shown within weekly demand (1.26591-1.28010) at the moment, a break below here would very likely force prices to fill potential buy orders sitting around the 1.26554 level, just above a 4hr decision-point area seen at 1.26250-1.26504.
- Buy orders: 1.26554 (Predicative stop-loss orders seen at: 1.26200).
- Sell orders: 1.27350 (Predicative stop-loss orders seen at: 1.27646).
Weekly Timeframe: A to-the-pip reaction was seen off of a weekly decision-point (supply) area at 1.66429-1.65340 two weeks ago. Assuming further selling is seen, it is very likely price could hit the weekly demand area at 1.58533-1.60157 sometime soon.
Daily Timeframe: The daily timeframe also shows we may see a sell off at least down to a daily support flip level seen at 1.61617, since late last week prices closed below the 1.62503 level, another daily support flip level.
4hr Timeframe: The market opened quite a bit below Friday’s close (1.62387) at 1.62234, and as a result buyers were likely filled just above the combined 4hr demand/round number area at 1.61609/1.62057/1.62. From there, price rallied up to a minor 4hr support flip level at 1.62760, where selling interest seems to have come into the market around the 1.62710 area (as reported may do in the previous analysis).
With that in mind, we are essentially expecting lower prices to be seen. So much so, we must be prepared for a fakeout north past the 1.62760 level up to a beautiful 4hr supply area at 1.63405-1.63021 (coupled with the round number 1.63 just below) beforehand, where we highly expect active sell orders to be seen around the 1.62931 area.
- Buy orders: N/A (Predicative stop-loss orders seen at: N/A).
- Sell orders: 1.62931 (Predicative stop-loss orders seen at: 1.63489).
Weekly Timeframe: The selling onslaught seems to be continuing within the weekly demand area seen at 0.86591-0.88247. Things are certainly not looking very good for the buyers at the moment! A break below here would likely attract further selling down towards a weekly demand area coming in at 0.83147-0.84241.
Daily Timeframe: The daily timeframe shows price has now entered daily demand (0.86183-0.87183). Going long here would in our opinion not be a good move, since we recognize that the 0.87556 level (Quasimodo resistance) is going to very likely repel the market. A close above this level on the other hand is a different matter, as this will potentially confirm price is heading up to at least the 0.88874 level (daily resistance).
4hr Timeframe: The Aussie Dollar is currently trading around the 0.87 level, which is shown more clearly on the 4hr timeframe, will this be enough to rally prices from here? It’s very doubtful. Be that as it may, we do expect the 4hr support level just below it at 0.86591 to accommodate any buying interest (active buy orders seen just above at 0.86640). That being said though, before the aforementioned 4hr support level is hit, we still believe there to be some unfilled sell orders still lurking below a minor 4hr support flip level (0.87467) at 0.87421, which may need to be filled in order for price to successfully break below the 0.87 level.
- Buy orders: 0.86640 (Predicative stop-loss orders seen at: 0.86459).
- Sell orders: 0.87421 (Predicative stop-loss orders seen at: 0.87560).
Weekly Timeframe: Weakness is currently being seen within weekly supply (110.652-108.123) at the moment. Assuming selling interest comes into the market here, we can likely expect price to test the 105.432 area (Resistance swap level) sometime in the near the future, since the path south appears to be clear of any obstacles (demand) on this timeframe.
Daily Timeframe: The daily timeframe shows the market has clearly found support around the 108.421 level. If follow-through buying is seen from here, we may see the current uptrend continuing up to at least the 110.390 level (daily Quasimodo resistance), which would consequently push price extremely deep within the weekly supply area mentioned above. On the other hand, if we see a daily close below the 108.421 level, this will likely attract further selling down to a daily decision-point area at 106.799-107.108, and ultimately confirm selling strength from the aforementioned weekly supply area.
4hr Timeframe: Very shortly after the market opened (109.279) a close above the 109.449 level was seen. This move likely signals price will rally up to at least the 110 level, which if you remember is only 39 pips away from the daily Quasimodo resistance level (110.390) mentioned above.
The most likely scenario we see playing out before higher prices are seen, is a decline in price (to collect buy orders) down to either the 109 level (active buy orders seen just above at 109.056), or failing that, a push down to a 4hr demand area seen at 108.467-108.775 (active buy orders are likely lurking just above at 108.830).
- Buy orders: 109.056 (Predicative stop-loss orders seen at: 108.799) 108.830 (Predicative stop-loss orders seen at: 108.411).
- Sell orders: N/A (Predicative stop-loss orders seen at: N/A).
Weekly Timeframe: Last week saw the EUR/GBP pair close relatively deep within a weekly demand area (0.76931-0.78623) at 0.78055, as the sellers relentless assault continued. Could we see buying interest come into the market here, or is this demand area doomed to receive even more punishment this week?
Daily Timeframe: The daily timeframe shows a spike/tail (0.77840) below the daily demand area at 0.77894-0.78271 was seen last week. This move has very likely cleared out a lot of buyers, and looks to be a perfect fakeout. With that being said, we have to be prepared for price to decline even further towards an extreme area of daily demand coming in at 0.77507-0.77772 before higher prices are seen. This area is extreme in our opinion because it remains to be the overall origin of a humongous rally that begun on the 23/07/12, making it an area well-funded traders are very likely paying attention to.
4hr Timeframe: The market opened at 0.78052, and shortly after, the 0.78 level got tested for the third time (0.77981). Sell orders appear to have been consumed around the decision-point level seen marked with a blue arrow at 0.78176, which likely indicates price is free to move up to the next set of sell orders seen just below the 4hr decision-point level (0.78311) at 0.78292.
Be that as it may, before higher prices are seen, a forth test of the 0.78 level could very well take place, in a last attempt to gobble up any fresh buy orders possibly coming into the market around the 0.78023 area.
Let’s quickly recap here; we believe price will trade northbound because of the following:
- Price is currently trading within weekly demand (0.76931-0.78623) at the moment.
- A potential fakeout below a daily demand area (0.77894-0.78271) has been seen.
- At the time of writing, we have, in our opinion, bullish price action on the 4hr timeframe.
- Buy orders: 0.78023 (Predicative stop-loss orders seen at: 0.77970).
- Sell orders: 0.78292 (Predicative stop-loss orders seen at: 0.78399).
Weekly Timeframe: At the time of writing, the buyers and sellers are seen trading between a weekly decision-point support level at 1.08774, and a weekly Quasimodo resistance level at 1.12231. A break above this resistance level could potentially see prices trading up to a weekly supply area seen at 1.17225-1.15417, and conversely, a break below the decision-point support level could encourage further selling towards a very obvious weekly demand area seen at 1.05715-1.07008.
Daily Timeframe: The daily timeframe shows that selling interest recently came into the market around the 1.11775 level, and as a result, this prevented price from hitting the daily Quasimodo resistance level just above at 1.11910. Assuming follow-through selling is seen from here, a push south towards a very obvious daily decision-point area seen at 1.10521-1.10826 may be on the cards.
4hr Timeframe: A break above a 4hr supply area at 1.11681-1.11392 has been seen, and as such, the majority of traders who attempted to fade this area have more than likely been stopped out.
From here on, we anticipate further buying will possibly materialize, since the path north appears to be relatively clear up to a combined fresh 4hr supply/round number area at 1.12096-1.11933/1.12 (active sell orders will likely be set just below, around the 1.11892 area), which so happens to line up beautifully with a daily Quasimodo resistance level seen at 1.11910.
On the other hand, before higher prices are seen, a correction may be seen down towards the 1.11 level, at which point we fully expect active buy orders to come into the market around the 1.11107 area.
- Buy orders: 1.11107 (Predicative stop-loss orders seen at: 1.10869).
- Sell orders: 1.11892 (Predicative stop-loss orders seen at: 1.12122).
Weekly Timeframe: The weekly timeframe shows that price recently closed above a weekly supply area seen at 0.94546-0.93081. This move will very likely attract further buying up to at least the next area of fresh weekly supply that comes in at 0.97505-0.96494.
Daily Timeframe: It comes as no surprise to us that daily supply at 0.94546-0.93702 was also consumed as well, since this area was located deep within the aforementioned weekly supply area that has recently been destroyed! If this buying onslaught continues, it is very likely that the fresh daily supply area above at 0.97505-0.96339 will be hit relatively soon. With that being said, before this happens, we should prepare ourselves for a possible retracement down towards a daily decision-point area at 0.93522-0.93970.
4hr Timeframe: Once the market opened at 0.95118, both the buyers and sellers were for the most part neutral, with neither showing any signs of intent to take control.
Late last week saw a break above the 0.95 level, and as such, this level should now offer plenty of support for traders attempting to play the retest (buy orders seen at 0.95028). Assuming this level holds, a rally higher up to around the 4hr demand flip area at 0.95452-0.95836 could very well be seen, where we highly expect active sell orders to be lurking just below, around the 0.95400 level.
However, if the buying interest is recognized as being weak here (0.95 level), this could encourage further selling down to the next set of fresh buy orders sitting just above a 4hr demand area (0.94553-0.94680) at 0.94722, and if prices do reach this far, we highly anticipate a nice rally from here with great risk to reward potential.
- Buy orders: 0.95028 (Predicative stop-loss orders seen at: 0.94838) 0.94722 (Predicative stop-loss orders seen at: 0.94516).
- Sell orders: 0.95400 (Predicative stop-loss orders seen at: 0.95893).
Weekly Timeframe: The weekly timeframe shows price is currently trading between a weekly support flip level at 1244.08, and a weekly demand area seen below at 1156.70-1194.45, with no attempt to break out seen just yet.
Daily Timeframe: The daily timeframe also shows price is currently trading between a daily decision-point supply area at 1241.95-1235.34, and a daily support flip level at 1211.67. This type of action is dreamy for range traders, but hellish for any trend traders attempting to join the current down trend seen on the daily timeframe.
4hr Timeframe: Technically, nothing has changed since the previous analysis. However, a quick reminder will not hurt.
It appears a decision needs to be made on gold. The weekly, daily (1244.08/1156.70-1194.45…… 1241.95-1235.34/1211.67), and now the 4hr timeframe (1211.12/1228.46) are all displaying distinguishable ranges, with no clear direction being shown in our opinion. Check out the possible fakeouts either side of the 4hr range, this has very likely stopped a lot of traders out who place their stops too close to the range limits.
Nevertheless, there are still opportunities here to buy and sell the limits of this range with price action confirmation. We see potential opportunities to buy at 1212.17, and sell at 1227.67, again, please do wait for some sort of confirmation signal here, since this area could break at any time!
- Buy orders: 1212.17 (Predicative stop-loss orders seen at: Dependent on which price-action confirmation signal you use).
- Sell orders: 1227.67 (Predicative stop-loss orders seen at: Dependent on which price-action confirmation signal you use).