For the readers’ benefit:

Price action confirmation levels: Simplymeans traders will likely wait for price action to confirm a level by consuming an opposing supply or demand area, then entering a trade on a possible retracement, this may occur on the lower timeframes also.

Pending orders: means a level, or area is valid for a touch trade.

EUR/USD: 

Weekly Timeframe: The Euro continued its relentless march south last week, and as a result saw prices closing the week just above a very obvious weekly ‘buy zone’ (1.26591-1.28010) at 1.28234. This zone remains an important one to us, since it has provided support to the market on three previous occasions, the first, on the 25/03/13 (1.27497), the second seen on the 13/05/13 (1.27953), and finally the third time was on the 01/07/13 (1.28049), and as a result we are expecting some sort of a bullish reaction to be seen here.

Daily Timeframe: At the time of writing, there is very little active buying being seen within the daily demand area at 1.27541-1.28676, if this continues, we could possibly see a break south towards a notable daily support flip level at 1.26859 (Both of which are seen within the aforementioned weekly ‘buy zone’).

4hr Timeframe: Buying interest did indeed come into the market around the 4hr demand area at 1.28095-1.28353, and as a result prices rallied up to a super fresh 4hr supply area just above at 1.29276-1.28959.

We feel this move was primarily carried out consume some of the selling pressure before higher prices could be attempted, with that being said, the 4hr demand area mentioned above, seems to be well and truly consumed now. The next set of the serious buy orders are seen coming in at 1.27970, just above a fresh 4hr demand area at 1.27541-1.27904. A bounce at the very least should be seen here since this remains the overall origin of a huge rally that started on the 09/07/13, and also not forgetting price is currently trading around higher-timeframe demand (Weekly: 1.26591-1.28010, Daily: 1.27541-1.28676) at the moment.

EURUSD 4HR

Pending orders/Price action confirmation levels:

  • Areas to watch for buy orders: Pending orders: 1.27970 (Stop loss: 1.27477 Take profit level(s): Dependent on how price approaches). Price action confirmation levels:  No price action confirmation buy levels are seen in the current market environment.
  • Areas to watch for sell orders: Pending orders: No pending sell orders are seen in the current market environment. Price action confirmation levels: No price action confirmation sell levels are seen in the current market environment.

 

GBP/USD:

Weekly Timeframe: Active buying is currently being seen off of a weekly resistance flip level at 1.62591, with very little seen to stop price (on this timeframe) from hitting the weekly decision-point area above at 1.66429-1.65340.

Daily Timeframe: The daily timeframe shows price is trading off of an obvious daily resistance flip level at 1.62503 (essentially the same as the weekly resistance flip level). In all honesty, we’re not convinced with the buying enthusiasm currently being seen on this timeframe, and in our opinion, a drop in price may be seen back to the aforementioned daily support flip level for a second retest before prices can continue higher.

4hr Timeframe: For the time being, trading action is confined between two psychological numbers: 1.63/1.64, a break above would likely encourage further buying up to the 1.65 level, conversely, a break below would almost immediately see price trading around a 4hr demand area at 1.64253-1.62776.

We are personally on the sidelines with this pair at the moment, since the higher timeframes in our opinion are providing no ‘clear’ direction, furthermore there is no trade on the 4hr timeframe until either the 1.63/1.64 levels are successfully consumed, at which point we would be looking for retest opportunities.

GBPUSD 4HR

Pending orders/Price action confirmation levels:

  • Areas to watch for buy orders: Pending orders: No pending buy orders are seen in the current market environment. Price action confirmation levels: No price action confirmation buy levels are seen in the current market environment.
  • Areas to watch for sell orders: Pending orders: No pending sell orders are seen in the current market environment. Price action confirmation levels: No price action confirmation sell levels are seen in the current market environment.

 

AUD/USD:

Weekly Timeframe: The recent cascading momentum seen over the past two weeks has brought price down to a weekly Quasimodo support level at 0.88189, which should produce a bounce at the very least, since weekly demand is sitting directly below at 0.86591-0.88247.

Daily Timeframe: The daily timeframe however is telling a different story. Monday’s trading sessions saw a bearish daily close below the 0.88874 level, coupled with a successful, albeit deep retest (as resistance) seen on Tuesday. This move has potentially cleared the path south towards a daily Quasimodo support level at 0.87556 (located within weekly demand at 0.86591-0.88247), which, theoretically would mean the weekly Quasimodo support level at 0.88189 could fail, and prices may trade deeper into the aforementioned weekly demand area, very interesting indeed!

4hr Timeframe: A deep retest of the 0.89 level was seen, from there on, the Aussie sold off sharply coming within a few pips of hitting a 4hr support flip level at 0.88223 (price action confirmation buy level set just above at 0.88262).

As one can already see, the higher timeframes are giving conflicting signals at the moment; the weekly is firmly sitting around a weekly Quasimodo support level (0.88189), while the daily timeframe has just successfully retested a newly-formed resistance level at 0.88874. We are fully aware that the higher timeframes usually overrule the lower, and with that in mind, we do expect higher prices to be seen eventually, but the question is when?, and more importantly, where? Any prospective area or level of demand on the 4hr timeframe will be treated as a viable option to go long from, with price action confirmation of course.

AUDUSD 4HR

Pending orders/Price action confirmation levels:

  • Areas to watch for buy orders: Pending orders: No pending buy orders are seen in the current market environment. Price action confirmation levels: 0.88262 (Stop loss: Dependent on price action after the level has been confirmed, Take profit levels(s): Dependent on approaching price action after the level has been confirmed).
  • Areas to watch for sell orders: Pending orders: No pending sell orders are seen in the current market environment. Price action confirmation levels: No price action confirmation sell levels are seen in the current market environment.

 

USD/JPY:

Weekly Timeframe: Price is currently trading relatively deep within a weekly supply area at 110.652-108.123. We will now be primarily looking for selling opportunities. However, in the event a buy trade presents itself, extreme caution will be taken regarding trade management, and risk.

Daily Timeframe: Keeping in mind the weekly timeframe is currently seen trading deep within weekly supply (levels above), the daily timeframe on the other hand shows price broke above and successfully retested the 108.421 level, is this an early sign that price may trade deeper into the aforementioned weekly supply area? Be that as it may, the next area/level of interest on the horizon (resistance) is coming in at 110.390 (daily Quasimodo), where, if prices reach that high, we fully expect active sellers to come into the market, since this level is sits very deep within the aforementioned weekly supply area.

4hr Timeframe: On the 4hr timeframe, we get to see a more magnified view of the higher timeframes. The recent decline in value seen here was where price had dropped to retest the daily support flip level (108.421), and as we can all see, a rally higher back up to the 109 level shortly followed.

This retest of the daily level looks great on the daily timeframe, but not so great on the 4hr timeframe. The reason for this is simple, all price has essentially done is traded into a resistance level (109), it is only when, or indeed if prices close above this level, then the daily test would have some credibility. We are going to patiently watch price action here, and if a close above the 109 level is seen, we will attempt to buy the retest, and target the 110 level, but at the same time remaining extra vigilant regarding trade management and risk, since we mustn’t forget that price is still trading within weekly supply (levels above) at the moment.

USDJPY 4HR

Pending orders/Price action confirmation levels:

  • Areas to watch for buy orders: Pending orders: No pending buy orders are seen in the current market environment. Price action confirmation levels: No price action confirmation buy levels are seen in the current market environment.
  • Areas to watch for sell orders: Pending orders: No pending sell orders are seen in the current market environment. Price action confirmation levels: No price action confirmation sell levels are seen in the current market environment.

 

EUR/GBP:

Weekly Timeframe: The EUR/GBP is now trading around serious weekly demand seen at 0.76931-0.78623. Overall, our bias for this pair is very much long, with the expectation of prices eventually trading back up to at least the weekly supply area at 0.81571-0.80635.

Daily Timeframe: Last week shows price reacted beautifully off of a daily demand (part of a stacked demand formation) area seen at 0.77894-0.78271, forming a bullish pin-bar candle in the process. However, the only way to find out if this buying was legit, and not just traders liquidating their short positions, would be a follow-through to the upside, and on this timeframe we see very little stopping price from rallying all the way up to daily supply at 0.80084-0.79702.

4hr Timeframe: The 4hr timeframe shows more selling was indeed seen from the 4hr supply area at 0.78963-0.78777, this however did not last long though, as buying interest came into the market around the 0.78405 level, consequently rallying prices back up to the aforementioned 4hr supply area, where at the time of writing, active selling is once again being seen.

Even though we are currently seeing selling interest at the moment, we feel this will be short lived. We must always remember the bigger picture, and with price currently trading around both weekly, and daily demand areas (Weekly: 0.76931-0.78623, Daily: 0.77894-0.78271), we are very much expecting a break above the 4hr supply area mentioned above. With that being said, for us to even consider buying this market, a break above the high 0.79133 would have to happen, this way we can be pretty confident most of the selling opposition has been consumed, making any long entry taken from there on less stressful.

EURGBP 4HR

Pending orders/Price action confirmation levels:

  • Areas to watch for buy orders: Pending orders: No pending buy orders are seen in the current market environment. Price action confirmation levels: No price action confirmation buy levels are seen in the current market environment.
  • Areas to watch for sell orders: Pending orders: 0.79882 (Stop loss: 0.80103 Take profit level(s): Dependent on how price approaches).  Price action confirmation levels: No price action confirmation sell levels seen in the current market environment.

 

USD/CAD:

Weekly Timeframe: It seems after price consumed the weekly supply area at 1.10522-1.09996, the pair sold off sharply down to just above a weekly decision-point support level at 1.08774, can we expect higher prices up to the weekly Quasimodo resistance level (1.11252) from here?

Daily Timeframe: The daily timeframe shows price is currently trading between a newly-formed daily supply area at 1.10980-1.10344, and a daily demand area seen at 1.08390-1.08771. A break above would likely attract further buying up to at least the 1.11910 level (daily Quasimodo resistance), conversely, a break below would see price immediately trading around a daily support flip level at 1.08277. We feel a break above is more likely since the weekly timeframe shows price is currently trading near to a weekly decision-point support level at 1.08774.

4hr Timeframe: With selling interest coming into the market a little below the 4hr supply area at 1.10706-1.10550, this likely suggests to us, strong supply exists around this area, making it one to watch for in the future, so much so, we have placed a pending sell order just below at 1.10532. Obviously, we will be extra careful regarding this trade, and take profit at the next fresh demand area, since we mustn’t forget that price is indeed trading very near to a weekly decision-point support level (1.08774) at the moment.

For the time being, price is currently seen trading around the big-figure number 1.1, if this level gives way, a challenge of the 1.09255 level (Quasimodo support) will very likely be seen. Conversely, if buying interest comes into the market here, a test of the aforementioned 4hr supply area may follow, which will in all likelihood fill our pending sell order (level above) in the process.

USDCAD 4HR

Pending orders/Price action confirmation levels:

  • Areas to watch for buy orders: Pending orders: No pending buy orders are seen in the current market environment. Price action confirmation levels: No price action confirmation buy levels are seen in the current market environment.
  • Areas to watch for sell orders: Pending orders: 1.10532 (Stop loss: 1.10736 Take profit levels(s): Dependent on how price approaches). Price action confirmation levels: No price action confirmation sell levels are seen in the current market environment.

 

USD/CHF:

Weekly Timeframe: At the time of writing, the weekly timeframe shows price is trading deep within weekly supply at 0.94546-0.93081. Should this pair see a sell off, we can likely expect active buyers to come into the market around a notable weekly resistance flip level at 0.90927.

Daily Timeframe: The recent push deeper into daily supply at 0.94546-0.93702 only tells us that both this supply area and the weekly supply area at 0.94546-0.93081 are likely beginning to weaken. With that being said, no decision (in our opinion) has yet to be made on this pair regarding higher-timeframe direction, except for the fact, price is indeed trading around higher-timeframe supply areas (levels above), and therefore lower prices should be expected.

Nevertheless, if a breakout above the daily supply area is seen, we can safely assume higher prices will likely follow (meaning weekly supply would also be consumed as well). On the other hand, if selling interest comes into the market, as expected, and consumes the daily decision-point level below at 0.93020 (thus confirming selling strength from the aforementioned weekly supply area), this then suggests to us further selling may be seen down to around the daily demand area at 0.91251-0.91738.

4hr Timeframe: A potential shorting opportunity may be setting up on the Swissy pair. The low 0.93787 marked with a blue arrow has been consumed, potentially clearing the way down to the 0.93344 level.

If price hits the 0.93344 level before filling our pending sell order set at 0.93931, then the trade is cancelled, since this will very likely be our take-profit target. Assuming our pending sell order does get filled before, we feel the market is offering a clear 2.5 risk/reward, if one were to target the 0.93344 level as we plan to.

With the above being said, we would not even consider this trade if it were not for price currently trading around higher-timeframe supply areas (Weekly: 0.94546-0.93081, Daily: 0.94546-0.93702) at the moment.

USDCHF 4HR

Pending orders/Price action confirmation levels:

  • Areas to watch for buy orders: Pending orders: No pending buy orders are seen in the current market environment. Price action confirmation levels: No price action confirmation buy levels are seen in the current market environment.
  • Areas to watch for sell orders: Pending orders: 0.93931 (Stop loss: 0.94233, Take profit level(s): 0.93344. Price action confirmation levels: No price action confirmation sell levels are seen in the current market environment.

 

XAU/USD (GOLD):

Weekly Timeframe: Price closed below the weekly decision-point level (1244.08) on the 08/09/14, with price seen retesting it as an area of resistance a week later. Could this be all the sellers need to push prices down to weekly demand at 1156.70-1194.45?

Daily Timeframe: It was reported in the previous analysis that we should expect the possibility of buying pressure around the 1211.67 level, which as we can all see did happen. At the time of writing, a successful to-the-pip touch has been seen off of a small daily supply area at 1241.95-1235.34 (located just under the weekly decision-point level at 1244.08). If follow-through selling is seen here, we fully expect the 1211.67 level to be consumed, which would likely attract further selling down to a daily Quasimodo support level at 1187.13, located just within the aforementioned weekly demand area.

4hr Timeframe: It was reported that if price was to break above the 4hr supply area at 1228.46-1223.28, we would likely consider buying. With the recent developments on gold, we have decided not to enter any buy orders just yet. The reasons for this are as follows:

  1. Price is trading off of a daily supply area at 1241.95-1235.34, and as most know the daily timeframe usually overrules the 4hr timeframe!
  2. It appears, for the time being, that price has faked above the 4hr supply area at 1228.46-1223.28 into yet another fresh 4hr supply area at 1239.37-1233.79 (located within the daily supply area mentioned above), which as I am sure you’ll agree is not a great sign to go long!

For the time being, we are going to patiently watch from the sidelines until more obvious (well obvious to us anyway) price action unfolds.

GOLD 4HR

Pending orders/Price action confirmation levels:

  • Areas to watch for buy orders: Pending orders: No pending buy orders are seen in the current market environment. Price action confirmation levels: No price action confirmation buy levels are seen in the current market environment.
  • Areas to watch for sell orders: Pending orders: No pending sell orders are seen in the current market environment.  Price action confirmation levels: No price action confirmation sell levels are seen in the current market environment.