For the readers’ benefit:

Price action confirmation levels: Simplymeans traders will likely wait for price action to confirm a level by consuming an opposing supply or demand area, then entering a trade on a possible retracement, this may occur on the lower timeframes also.

Pending orders: means pending orders are likely seen.

EUR/USD: 

Weekly Timeframe: An average bullish pin-bar candle was formed last week on this timeframe; does this mean we could be seeing higher prices this week? It is very difficult to tell on this timeframe, since the tail appears to be floating in midair. Nonetheless, we cannot ignore the fact that this candle formed 58 pips or so from a valid ’weekly buy’ zone at 1.26591-1.28010.

Daily Timeframe: The aforementioned weekly pin-bar candle seems to have been formed from prices reacting off of a daily demand area at 1.27541-1.28676, which is conveniently located just above the ‘weekly buy’ zone seen at 1.26591-1.28010. On this timeframe, there is clearly room to move higher, with very little supply being seen overhead until around the daily decision-point area at 1.31589-1.31091 giving the weekly pin-bar candle some validity.

4hr Timeframe: A beautiful-looking wick formed from reacting off of the huge number 1.3. The first take-profit target (1.29839) has now been hit from our long position taken last week at 1.28936. Its decision time once again on the Euro, if follow-through selling is seen off of the round number 1.3, and the low 1.29074 marked with a red circle gets consumed; it is likely that prices could see a rather rapid decline in value, since most of the unfilled buy orders have already likely been consumed (take note of the tails/spikes around the blue trendline (1.29074/1.28826), meaning the path south should be relatively clear down to around 4hr demand at 1.27541-1.27904 (located deep within both weekly demand at 1.26591-1.28010, and also daily demand at 1.27541-1.28676).

With that being said, price is currently trading around higher-timeframe demand at the moment (levels above); we cannot discount the fact that higher prices may very well be seen. A break above the round number 1.3 would see prices trading within a ‘price action void’, the pink rectangle essentially shows an area where price is free to move for the time being, in this case, an area free of supply on the 4hr timeframe up to at least the next round number 1.31.

EURUSD 4HR

Pending orders/Price action confirmation levels:

  • Areas to watch for buy orders: Pending orders: 1.28936 (Active) (Stop loss: 1.28437 Take profit level(s): [1] 1.29839 [2] 1.30938). Price action confirmation levels:  No price action confirmation buy levels are seen in the current market environment.
  • Areas to watch for sell orders: Pending orders: No pending sell orders are seen in the current market environment. Price action confirmation levels: 1.29950 (Stop loss: Dependent on price action after the level has been confirmed, Take profit levels(s): Dependent on approaching price action after the level has been confirmed).

 

GBP/USD:

Weekly Timeframe: At the time of writing, price is currently trading around a weekly resistance flip level at 1.62591, if the sellers are intent on bringing prices lower, then the next area of weekly demand is coming in at 1.58533-1.60157. Conversely, a break above this weekly resistance flip level would likely attract further buying up to a weekly decision-point area at 1.66429-1.65340.

Daily timeframe: The daily timeframe shows buyers and sellers are currently battling it out around a daily demand flip area at 1.62510-1.63401. If the sellers overcome the buyers here, prices could very well drop down to a dally support level at 1.58992, which is located deep within a weekly demand area at 1.58533-1.60157.  However, a break above this area would likely result in a test of another daily demand flip area seen at 1.64589-1.64949.

4hr Timeframe: Higher prices were indeed seen on the pound as reported may happen in the previous analysis, however active sellers seem to have come into the market around the combined 4hr supply/round number area (1.63393-1.62791/1.63), this should come as no surprise really considering the location of price on the higher timeframes (Weekly resistance: 1.62591, Daily supply: 1.62510-1.63401).

We have removed the price action confirmation buy level placed just above the round number 1.62 at 1.62100, since price dropped too far past the round number for our liking. At the time of writing, like the Euro, it is very much decision time on this pair. A break above the combined 4hr supply/round number area (levels above) would likely force prices up to around the next area of fresh 4hr supply at 1.64639-1.64385, conversely if selling interest comes into the market , we can likely expect prices to drop down to at least the round number 1.62 before any buying interest is seen.

GBP 4HR

Pending orders/Price action confirmation levels:

  • Areas to watch for buy orders: Pending orders: 1.60112 (Stop loss: 1.59586 Take profit levels(s): Dependent on how price approaches). Price action confirmation levels: No price action confirmation buy levels are seen in the current market environment. 
  • Areas to watch for sell orders: Pending orders: No pending sell orders are seen in the current market environment. Price action confirmation levels: No price action confirmation sell levels are seen in the current market environment. 

AUD/USD:

Weekly Timeframe: A full-bodied bearish candle has been seen closing below a long-term weekly consolidation area at 0.94600-0.92046. In our humble opinion, it appears there is very little obvious weekly demand until price reaches the weekly Quasimodo support level at 0.88189, which is beautifully located just above a weekly demand area at 0.86591-0.88247. Be that as it may, we should not discount the possibility a retest of the 0.92046 level (now resistance) may very well be seen sometime soon.

Daily Timeframe: The break recently seen below the daily demand area at 0.89942-0.90510 was initially thought to be a signal for lower prices down to around the daily Quasimodo support level at 0.88189, and this could still be the case. However, as we can all see it appears the break below stopped out a number of traders attempting to fade this area, these stops may have forced pro money to buy, since once the stops were filled, each one became a sell order, and pro money cannot drop prices by selling into sell orders! So, buying had to be seen before any decline in value was to be considered. It is very likely prices may rally a little further yet up to around the daily resistance flip level at 0.91323 before pro money can take prices south.

4hr Timeframe: We had initially set a price action confirmation buy level just above the round number 0.9 at 0.90081, this level has indeed been confirmed, but we will not be placing any pending buy orders in the market at this time. The reasoning behind this is simple, if price would have consumed the (which was at the time) 4hr decision-point area at 0.90673-0.90420 without hitting the round number 0.91 above, we would have without a doubt gone long around the round number 0.9, and thus targeted the round number 0.91 where price is currently seen reacting off of at the moment. We believe active buyers may come into the market around the 4hr supply flip area at 0.90673-0.90420, and push prices further north up to at least the 4hr resistance flip level at 0.91327 (we will be watching this level for price action confirmation upon arrival) which coincidentally lines up perfectly with the daily resistance flip level at 0.91323. From here we expect to see very active selling coming into the market.

AUD 4HR

Pending orders/Price action confirmation levels:

  • Areas to watch for buy orders: Pending orders: No pending buy orders are seen in the current market environment. Price action confirmation levels: No price action confirmation buy levels are seen in the current market environment.
  • Areas to watch for sell orders: Pending orders: No pending sell orders are seen in the current market environment. Price action confirmation levels: 0.91195 (Stop loss: Dependent on price action after the level has been confirmed, Take profit levels(s): Dependent on approaching price action after the level has been confirmed).

 

USD/JPY: 

Weekly Timeframe: The buyers were on fire last week as they firmly closed price above a weekly supply area at 105.432-104.065. We see very little on this timeframe stopping price from hitting the heavy-weight weekly supply area at 110.652-108.123 sometime soon.

Daily Timeframe: With price successfully closing above daily supply at 106.946-105.083, we can assume higher prices are likely to be seen soon as most of the sellers are now likely consumed. The path north appears relatively clear up to around the weekly supply area mentioned already at 110.652-108.123, since all we see above this daily supply area is consumed supply/sellers – just take a look at all those wicks consuming unfilled sell orders as price was dropping (108.021/109.071/109.166/110.278). However, before this happens, we have to expect the possibility that some sort of correction may be seen. On this timeframe, the nearest area of logical daily demand comes in at 104.674-105.244.

4hr Timeframe: Price failed to hold above the round number 107, and as a result dropped down and successfully tested the 4hr demand area at 106.640-106.878, as reported may happen in the previous analysis.

We have now set a pending buy order just above the aforementioned 4hr demand area at 106.901, since a nice reaction will likely be seen if price returns to this area. We are confident higher prices are still yet to come on this pair as the approach to this 4hr demand area was somewhat consumed. The wicks/spikes seen at 107.342/107.323/107.204 were very likely the work of pro money collecting unfilled sell orders as price was dropping, and thus clearing the path north for any future buying. All of this coupled with higher-timeframe confluence (indicating there is room to move higher), this 4hr demand area looks great, we can only wait now to see if price spikes back down to fill our pending buy order (level above).

USDJPY 4HR

Pending orders/Price action confirmation levels:

  • Areas to watch for buy orders: Pending orders: 106.901 (Stop loss: 106.588 Take profit: Dependent on how price approaches). Price action confirmation levels: No price action confirmation buy levels are seen in the current market environment. 
  • Areas to watch for sell orders: Pending orders: No pending sell orders are seen in the current market environment. Price action confirmation levels: No price action confirmation sell levels are seen in the current market environment. 

 

EUR/GBP:

Weekly Timeframe: A to-the-pip touch reaction has been seen off of a weekly supply area at 0.81571-0.80635. Could this be enough to push prices down into the weekly demand area below at 0.76931-0.78623?

Daily Timeframe: The daily timeframe is depicting the beginnings of an uptrend (notice the higher highs and higher lows being seen [0.80351/0.78905/0.80647]) contrary to what the weekly timeframe is telling us.  If price breaks above the high 0.80647, then we may be seeing higher prices to come! Also, we mustn’t forget that price only just missed hitting the weekly demand area at 0.76931-0.78623 by literally a few pips on 21/07/14 – 0.78729, so we may be seeing weekly buyers in action here.

4hr Timeframe: For anyone who follows our analysis on a regular basis, you may recall us writing that if a close above the round number 0.8 was seen, we would be closing our short position taken at 0.80533, and this is exactly what we have done! However, at the same time, our price action confirmation sell level at 0.79978 (set just below the round number 0.8) has been triggered. If the close above the round number 0.8 was only a fakeout, it is very likely follow-through selling will be seen, if so, for us to consider setting a pending sell order in place of the price action confirmation sell level (level above), the sellers must prove to us that this round number level is valid by breaking below the 4hr decision-point area at 0.79666-0.79769. With that being said, if the close above the round number was in fact a continuation break, we will be watching closely for any retest opportunities, and also possibly looking to sell at the 4hr Quasimodo resistance level at 0.80359.

EURGBP 4HR

Pending orders/Price action confirmation levels:

  • Areas to watch for buy orders: Pending orders: No pending buy orders are seen in the current market environment. Price action confirmation levels: No price action confirmation buy levels are seen in the current market environment.
  • Areas to watch for sell orders: Pending orders: No pending sell orders are seen in the current market environment. Price action confirmation levels: 0.79978 (Active-awaiting confirmation)(Stop loss: Dependent on price action after the level has been confirmed, Take profit level(s): Dependent on approaching price action after the level has been confirmed).

 

USD/CAD:

Weekly Timeframe: An important weekly supply area at 1.10522-1.09996 was recently consumed, no doubt taking out any traders attempting to fade this area in the process. Price is now very close to a weekly Quasimodo resistance level at 1.11252, which should in all likelihood see a nice bearish reaction when/if prices reach this far.

Daily Timeframe: The close above weekly supply (levels above) caused the daily supply area at 1.10522-1.10133 to be consumed as well (which was at the time located deep within the weekly supply area mentioned above). We can openly see this push higher has potentially cleared the path north up to two prominent daily Quasimodo resistance levels (1.12231/1.11910), which are positioned a lot higher than the Quasimodo resistance level seen on the weekly timeframe (1.11252). With that being said, we have to be prepared for the possibility that pro money may not have accumulated enough liquidity (in this case sell orders to buy into) to push prices higher just yet. An obvious area where pro money may sell prices to would likely be to around a daily decision-point area at 1.09327-1.09825; this area could provide a nice launching pad to rocket prices higher to around the aforementioned daily Quasimodo resistance levels.

4hr Timeframe: It was reported in the last analysis, that assuming selling interest came into the market around the 4hr supply area at 1.11033-1.10872, a decline in value would then likely be seen down to around the 1.1 level. A drop in price was indeed seen, but we did not expect there to be as many active buy orders left around the minor 4hr demand area at 1.10276-1.10435, since the spike/tail marked with a blue arrow at 1.10298 seemed (at the time) to have done a good job in consuming any unfilled buy orders before rallying higher towards the aforementioned 4hr supply area, clearly we were wrong here. Nevertheless, the weak test currently being seen could very well encourage follow-through selling down to at least the huge psychological number 1.1, a price action confirmation buy level has been set just above here at 1.10038, the reasoning behind waiting for confirmation here, is simply because deep tests/spikes occur very frequently around round-number levels such as these.

USDCAD 4HR

Pending orders/Price action confirmation levels:

  • Areas to watch for buy orders: Pending orders: 1.09545 (Stop loss: 1.09277 Take profit level(s): Dependent on how price approaches. Price action confirmation levels:1.10038 (Stop loss: Dependent on price action after the level has been confirmed, Take profit level(s): Dependent on approaching price action after the level has been confirmed).
  • Areas to watch for sell orders: Pending orders: 1.11356 (Stop loss: 1.11746 Take profit levels(s): Dependent on how price approaches). Price action confirmation levels: No Price action confirmation sell levels are seen in the current market environment. 

USD/CHF:

Weekly Timeframe: At the time of writing, the weekly timeframe shows price is holding nicely within weekly supply at 0.94546-0.93081. Should this pair see a sell off, we can likely expect active buyers to come into the market around the weekly resistance flip level at 0.90927.

Daily timeframe: Consolidating price action is currently being seen on the daily timeframe between a daily decision-point level at 0.93019, and a daily supply area above at 0.94546-0.93702. Selling at the aforementioned weekly supply area looked like a fantastic opportunity to get into a long-term short position (assuming price could overcome the 0.90927 level); things did not look so good once we went down to the daily timeframe, and spotted the very obvious-looking daily decision-point level (level above), since this level would (in our opinion) need to be consumed before lower prices are seen in the market.

4hr Timeframe: On the 4hr timeframe, we get the chance to see the daily timeframe consolidation up close and personal. Considering price is currently trading around a notable weekly supply area (levels above), there does not seem to be much selling interest coming into the market at the moment.

Buying interest is currently being seen around a minor 4hr resistance flip level at 0.93257, not a great sign for our current short trade at 0.93845. If this buying here is genuine, tighten your seat belts because a strong rally may be seen up to at least the round-number level 0.94. Why could prices be pushed this far north? The high marked with a red circle at 0.93717 has essentially broken into a consumed supply price zone. Take a quick look at the blue downtrend line, this line is not used to represent a trend as such, it is more to try and demonstrate that pro money have likely consumed most of the sell orders while price was falling (this being the consumed supply zone), the wicks (0.93670/0.93727) marked with blue arrows are possibly where pro money were collecting unfilled sell orders as price was dropping, whilst doing this, they were essentially clearing the path north for any future buying.

USDCHF 4HR

Pending orders/Price action confirmation levels:

  • Areas to watch for buy orders: Pending orders: 0.92635 (Stop loss: 0.92410 Take profit levels(s):  Dependent on how price approaches). Price action confirmation levels: No price action confirmation buy levels are seen in the current market environment. 
  • Areas to watch for sell orders: Pending orders: 0.93845 (Active) (Stop loss: 0.94078 Take profit levels(s): [1] 0.93464 [2] 0.93051).Price action confirmation levels: No Price action confirmation sell levels are seen in the current market environment. 

 

XAU/USD (GOLD):

Weekly Timeframe: Following a positive close below the weekly decision-point level at 1244.08, price appears relatively free to trade lower down to around a ‘weekly buy zone’ seen at 1156.70-1194.45. At the time of writing, price came within a few points of nearly retesting the 1244.08 level as resistance, could this be all the sellers need to push prices down to around weekly demand at 1156.70-1194.45?

Daily Timeframe: Monday’s trading action saw prices react off of a minor daily decision-point level at 1227.66, for any traders who entered long here, be careful, as price is currently trading very near to a weekly decision-point resistance level at 1244.08.

4hr Timeframe: Our pending sell order was only a few points away from being filled at 1242.87, be that as it may, we are not going to remove this order since prices may yet come back for a second serving, as the weekly decision-point resistance level at 1244.08 has yet to be fully hit (see above for details).

The market seems to have found temporary 4hr support around the 1231.83 level, if a close below this level is seen, then we have to consider the possibility that we may have missed the boat regarding this short trade. Conversely, if the 1231.83 level can hold the market higher, this may encourage buying up to the 4hr supply area at 1250.85-1243.69 filling our pending sell order (level above) in the process.

GOLD 4HR

Pending orders/Price action confirmation levels:

  • Areas to watch for buy orders: Pending orders: No pending buy orders are seen in the current market environment. Price action confirmation levels: No price action confirmation buy levels are seen in the current market environment. 
  • Areas to watch for sell orders: Pending orders: 1242.87 (Stop loss: 1251.98 Take profit levels(s): Dependent on how price approaches). Price action confirmation levels: No price action confirmation sell levels are seen in the current market environment.