For the readers’ benefit:

Price action confirmation levels: Simplymeans traders will likely wait for price action to confirm a level by consuming an opposing supply or demand area, then entering a trade on a possible retracement, this may occur on the lower timeframes also.

Pending orders: means pending orders are likely seen.

EUR/USD: 

Weekly Timeframe: An average bullish pin-bar candle was formed last week; does this mean we could be seeing higher prices this week? This is very difficult to tell on this timeframe, since the tail appears to be floating in midair. Nonetheless, we cannot ignore the fact that this candle formed 58 pips or so from a valid ‘’weekly buy’ zone at 1.26591-1.28010.

EURUSD WEEKLY

Daily Timeframe: In all honesty, looking back over the week’s trading on the daily chart, the conditions were miserable to say the least (ranging action – 1.28934/1.29540). However, regarding the weekly pin-bar candle, the daily timeframe shows it may have some validity. Price is trading out of a nice-looking daily demand area at 1.27541-1.28676, albeit slowly, which is conveniently located just above a ‘weekly buy’ zone at 1.26591-1.28010. On this timeframe there is clearly room to move higher, with very little supply being seen overhead until the daily decision-point area at 1.31589-1.31091.

EURUSD DAILY

4hr Timeframe: For anyone who follows our analysis regularly, you may recall us reporting that a close above the 4hr decision-point level at 1.29580 would give us confidence to remain in this long trade (1.28936) over the weekend. Fortunately for us, this happened just before the market closed last week!

So, from the weekly to the 4hr timeframe, do we still think the weekly pin-bar candle has some validity? In our opinion it does, since we have seen price reacting (or should we say grinding) out of daily demand at 1.27541-1.28676, and also not forgetting the positive, albeit slow, price action seen on the 4hr timeframe, with the sellers appearing to be well and truly consumed around the aforementioned 4hr decision-point level, indicating that prices are likely free to hit the round number 1.3 above.

A challenge of the round number 1.3 will likely be seen today; however, it’s very possible that this level will repel the market initially, since there’s no high-impacting news due out. Ideally, what we’d like to see during the week is a break above and retest of this round-number level, this would likely imply prices are free to hit the next area of interest, which so happens to be also a round number at 1.31. The pink area in between these round-number levels resembles a price action void, essentially showing an area where price is free to move for the time being, in this case, an area free of supply on the 4hr timeframe.

EURUSD 4HR

Pending orders/Price action confirmation levels:

  • Areas to watch for buy orders: Pending orders: 1.28936 (Active) (Stop loss: 1.28437 Take profit level(s): [1] 1.29839 [May be subject to change]). Price action confirmation levels:  No price action confirmation buy levels are seen in the current market environment.
  • Areas to watch for sell orders: Pending orders: No pending sell orders are seen in the current market environment. Price action confirmation levels: 1.29950 (Stop loss: Dependent on price action after the level has been confirmed, Take profit levels(s): Dependent on approaching price action after the level has been confirmed).

 

GBP/USD:

Weekly Timeframe: Very similar to the Euro, the British pound had a bullish week. Price failed to hit the weekly demand area at 1.58533-1.60157 by about 35 pips or so before taking off like a rocket. The market closed the week at 1.62636; just a few pips above a major weekly resistance flip level at 1.62591. If this level gives way, the next key area of weekly supply (decision point) comes in at 1.66429-1.65340.

GBPUSD WEEKLY

Daily timeframe: The major resistance flip level seen on the weekly timeframe at 1.62591 resembles a drop-base-rally demand area on the daily timeframe at 1.62510-1.63401; well we should now really refer to it as a daily demand flip area. Price has, in our opinion now filled the previous weekend gap (1.62317/1.62791) resulting in price closing the week (1.62636) within the aforementioned daily demand flip area.

GBPUSD DAILY

A break above this area could likely force prices up to the next area of interest at 1.64589-1.64949 (another daily demand flip area). Conversely, if a bearish reaction is seen here, which should really be the case considering the historical significance of this area seen on the weekly timeframe, prices could very well drop down to a dally support level at 1.58992, which is located deep within a weekly demand area at 1.58533-1.60157.

4hr Timeframe:  Considering both the weekly and daily timeframes are trading around supply areas (1.62591/1.62510-1.63401) at the moment, we naturally expect lower prices this week.

However, think about this for a moment. The Euro is currently trading very near to weekly demand at 1.26591-1.28010, and also trading out of daily demand at 1.27541-1.28676 where higher prices are expected to be seen this week.

Can anyone see the problem here? For two pairs that generally move in tandem with each other, both pairs are producing conflicting signals, meaning one has to give in! With positive bullish price action being seen on the Euro 4hr timeframe presently, and the 4hr timeframe on the British pound showing little interest around the 4hr supply area at 1.63393-1.62791, we believe higher prices will be eventually seen on the pound, forcing price back into correlation with the Euro. Our price action confirmation buy level set just above the round number 1.62 at 1.62100 was triggered on Friday. The buyers need to prove this level is valid for buying, by breaking above the aforementioned 4hr supply area, only then will we consider setting a pending buy order awaiting a possible return.

The above analysis is only ONE opinion and it’s definitely open to debate!

GBPUSD 4HR

Pending orders/Price action confirmation levels:

  • Areas to watch for buy orders: Pending orders: 1.60112 (Stop loss: 1.59586 Take profit levels(s): Dependent on how price approaches). Price action confirmation levels: 1.62100 (Active-awaiting confirmation) (Stop loss: Dependent on price action after the level has been confirmed, Take profit levels(s): Dependent on approaching price action after the level has been confirmed). 
  • Areas to watch for sell orders: Pending orders: No pending sell orders are seen in the current market environment. Price action confirmation levels: No price action confirmation sell levels are seen in the current market environment.

 

AUD/USD:

Weekly Timeframe: A full-bodied bearish candle has been seen closing below a long-term weekly consolidation area at 0.94600-0.92046. In our humble opinion, it appears there is very little obvious weekly demand until price reaches the weekly Quasimodo support level at 0.88189, which is beautifully located just above a weekly demand area at 0.86591-0.88247. Be that as it may, we should not discount the possibility a retest of the 0.92046 level (now resistance) may very well be seen this week, or the next.

AUDUSD WEEKLY

Daily Timeframe: As already mentioned, this pair fell during most of last week with price closing at 0.90306, right in the middle of a daily demand area at 0.89942-0.90510.  A daily close below this area would likely attract further selling down to around a daily Quasimodo support level at 0.88189 (also seen on the weekly timeframe). The reason price could drop this far south is solely because of the tail marked with a red circle at 0.89226. This tail likely resembles demand consumption indicating the buyers have already been cleared. Assuming buying interest comes into the market around the aforementioned daily demand area, which we believe is unlikely (as per this timeframe); the first trouble area on the horizon is a daily resistance flip level at 0.91323.

AUDUSD DAILY

4hr Timeframe: If follow-through selling continues today, the huge psychological number 0.9 may be hit. These big-figure numbers usually attract a lot of attention, and considering it is sitting beautifully within a daily demand area at 0.89942-0.90510 it gives this number extra weight.

We have set a price action confirmation buy level just above this number at 0.90081, we would’ve loved to have set a pending buy order here, but we have been stopped out countless times in the past from deep tests (spikes), as a result, we usually wait for confirmation around round-number levels such as these.

AUDUSD 4HR

Pending orders/Price action confirmation levels:

  • Areas to watch for buy orders: Pending orders: No pending buy orders are seen in the current market environment. Price action confirmation levels: 0.90081 (Stop loss: Dependent on price action after the level has been confirmed, Take profit levels(s): Dependent on approaching price action after the level has been confirmed).
  • Areas to watch for sell orders: Pending orders: No pending sell orders are seen in the current market environment. Price action confirmation levels: No price action confirmation sell levels are seen in the current market environment.

 

 

USD/JPY: 

Weekly Timeframe: The buyers were on fire last week as they firmly closed price above the weekly supply area at 105.432-104.065. We see very little on this timeframe stopping price from hitting the heavy-weight weekly supply area at 110.652-108.123 sometime this week.

USDJPY WEEKLY

Daily Timeframe: Price has closed above the daily supply area at 106.946-105.083, this could very likely attract another round of heavy buying essentially pushing price up to the weekly supply area mentioned already at 110.652-108.123, since all we see above this daily supply area is consumed supply/sellers – just take a look at all those wicks (108.021/109.071/109.166/110.278). However, before this happens, we have to expect the possibility that some sort of correction may be seen. On this timeframe, the nearest area of logical daily demand comes in at 104.674-105.244.

USDJPY DAILY

4hr Timeframe: Price just did not want to give us any chance of an entry long last week; it was very frustrating to say the least! With their still being room to move above until we reach the weekly supply area at 110.652-108.123, and the daily timeframe indicating supply has been consumed up to this level, we are still looking for long entries at least until price reaches the aforementioned weekly supply area.

A price action confirmation buy level has been set just above the round number 107 at 107.048 attempting to play the retest (as support). If this level gives way, a test of the 4hr demand area directly below at 106.640 – 106.878 could be seen; this level (even though no price action confirmation level has been set) will also require confirmation for us to consider entering long.

USDJPY 4HR

Pending orders/Price action confirmation levels:

  • Areas to watch for buy orders: Pending orders: No pending buy orders are seen in the current market environment. Price action confirmation levels: 105.377 (Stop loss: Dependent on price action after the level has been confirmed, Take profit level(s): Dependent on approaching price action after the level has been confirmed) 107.048 (Stop loss: Dependent on price action after the level has been confirmed, Take profit level(s): Dependent on approaching price action after the level has been confirmed). 
  • Areas to watch for sell orders: Pending orders: No pending sell orders are seen in the current market environment. Price action confirmation levels: No price action confirmation sell levels are seen in the current market environment.

 

EUR/GBP:

Weekly Timeframe: A to-the-pip touch reaction has been seen off of a weekly supply area at 0.81571-.0.80635. Could this be enough to push prices down into the weekly demand area below at 0.76931-0.78623 this week? It certainly appears that way at the moment.

EURGBP WEEKLY

 

Daily Timeframe: Wednesday’s trading session’s saw the weekend gap (0.79771/0.79562) filled. This very likely clears the way for a challenge of the daily demand area at 0.78905-0.79162. This demand area (in our opinion) appears vulnerable, since price already tested it on 04/09/14, if follow-through selling is seen this week; a break of this demand area is likely. A daily close below this area would very possibly attract further selling down to a very important daily demand area at 0.78117-0.78533, which is conveniently located within the weekly demand area mentioned above at 0.76931-0.78623.

EURGBP DAILY

4hr Timeframe: As already mentioned in Friday’s analysis. Our short trade taken within 4hr supply (0.80619-0.80409) at 0.80533 is still active, since we decided to let our remaining position run. Thursday and Friday’s trading sessions formed a range (marked with a pink rectangle) at 0.79482/0.79747.  A breakout south from here will likely force prices down to at least the Quasimodo support level at 0.79165 (take a look on the 30 minute timeframe, there’s a fresh area of demand [0.79017-0.79151] just below this Quasimodo level, beautiful for a quick bounce at the very least), or even the round number 0.79. These areas of interest are particularly important to us since both are sitting in and around the daily demand area at 0.78905-0.79162, albeit a weak-looking demand area (explained above), hence we only expect a bounce around the aforementioned 4hr areas, and not a complete reversal.

A breakout north from the 4hr range is not the end of the world for us regarding our active sell order, since any buying would have to overcome likely heavy selling pressure situated around the huge psychological level 0.8. Just in case this does happen, we have set a price action confirmation sell level just below at 0.79978, this could work out to be a fantastic addition to our current short trade.

EURGBP 4HR

Pending orders/Price action confirmation levels:

  • Areas to watch for buy orders: Pending orders: No pending buy orders are seen in the current market environment. Price action confirmation levels: No price action confirmation buy levels are seen in the current market environment.
  • Areas to watch for sell orders: Pending orders: 0.80533 (Active) (Stop loss: 0.80660 Take profit levels(s): [1] 0.80372 [2] 0.80126, we may take final profit around the round number 0.79 depending on price action). Price action confirmation levels: 0.79978 (Stop loss: Dependent on price action after the level has been confirmed, Take profit level(s): Dependent on approaching price action after the level has been confirmed).

 

USD/CAD:

Weekly Timeframe: Significant gains were seen on the U.S Dollar against the Canadian Dollar last week. An important weekly supply area at 1.10522-1.09996 was consumed, no doubt taking out any traders attempting to fade this area in the process. Price is now very close to a weekly Quasimodo resistance level at 1.11252, which should very likely see a nice bearish reaction when/if price reaches this far.

USDCAD WEEKLY

Daily Timeframe: The close above weekly supply obviously caused the daily supply area (which was located deep within the weekly supply area mentioned above) at 1.10522-1.10133 to be consumed as well. We can clearly see this push higher has potentially cleared the path north up to two prominent daily Quasimodo resistance levels (1.12231/1.11910), this is a fantastic area to be looking for shorting opportunities. However, we have to be prepared for the possibility that pro money has not got enough liquidity to push prices higher just yet; an obvious place where price could be sold to is a daily decision-point area at 1.09327-1.09825. This area could provide a nice launching pad to rocket prices higher to around the aforementioned Quasimodo resistance levels.

USDCAD DAILY

4hr Timeframe: Our sell position just below 4hr supply (1.10388-1.10163) at 1.10127 has now been stopped out; fortunately, we locked in enough profit already at 1.09428 which left us with a small winning trade.

The market closed the week (1.10851) just below a fresh 4hr supply area at 1.11033-1.10872 (round number 1.11 located within).  Could this area be enough to hold prices south? We believe it may be possible, since traders very likely will be taking profits on the rally seen last week. A bearish reaction could very well bring prices all the way down to at least the round number 1.1 since in our opinion there’s very little demand in the way.

A break above this area likely clears the way for a challenge of 4hr supply at 1.11681-1.11392 (a pending sell order is set just below at 1.11356), which is conveniently located around the weekly Quasimodo resistance level at 1.11252.

USDCAD 4HR

Pending orders/Price action confirmation levels:

  • Areas to watch for buy orders: Pending orders: No pending buy orders are seen in the current market environment. Price action confirmation levels:No price action confirmation buy levels are seen in the current market environment.
  • Areas to watch for sell orders: Pending orders: 1.11356 (Stop loss: 1.11746 Take profit levels(s): Dependent on how price approaches). Price action confirmation levels: No Price action confirmation sell levels are seen in the current market environment.

USD/CHF:

Weekly Timeframe: Sellers seem to have entered the market last week around a notable weekly supply area at 0.94546-0.93081, this selling has formed a bearish pin-bar candle, could we safely assume lower prices will be seen this week then?

USDCHF WEEKLY

Daily timeframe: Anyone considering selling based on the bearish pin-bar candle seen within weekly supply (levels above) may want to hold fire, since all price seems to have done is reacted off of a daily supply area at 0.94546-0.93702, and as a result, has traded very close to an obvious daily decision-point level at 0.93019. Now, if this daily decision-point level was already consumed, then yes on this timeframe, the weekly pin bar would essentially have room to move down to at least the daily demand area at 0.91251-0.91738, but since no break has been seen yet, traders would do well to sit on their hands at this point, and avoid clicking the sell button. Let’s see if there is any more information we can gather from the 4hr timeframe.

USDCHF DAILY

4hr Timeframe: We were fortunate to have a pending sell order set within 4hr supply (0.93911-0.93746) at 0.93845; this order was filled before the weekly pin-bar candle formed. Our first take-profit target was hit at 0.93464, and if price can successfully overcome the minor 4hr resistance flip level at 0.93257 this week, then our second take-profit target will very likely be hit just above the round number 0.93 at 0.93051.

Regarding whether the weekly pin-bar candle is genuine or not, the 4hr timeframe shows price could indeed move south down to the round number 0.93 with a little effort from the sellers. However, once price reaches this level, we’re effectively trading around the daily decision-point level mentioned above at 0.93019, so until this is area is consumed; we have no clear indication that prices will move lower this week, even if a nice-looking weekly pin-bar candle formed within weekly supply (levels above).

USDCHF 4HR

Pending orders/Price action confirmation levels:

  • Areas to watch for buy orders: Pending orders: 0.92635 (Stop loss: 0.92410 Take profit levels(s):  Dependent on how price approaches). Price action confirmation levels: No price action confirmation buy levels are seen in the current market environment. 
  • Areas to watch for sell orders: Pending orders: 0.93845 (Active) (Stop loss: 0.94078 Take profit levels(s): [1] 0.93464 [2] 0.93051).Price action confirmation levels: No Price action confirmation sell levels are seen in the current market environment.

 XAU/USD (GOLD):

Weekly Timeframe: A full-bodied bearish candle formed last week resulting in price closing below a weekly decision-point level at 1244.08. As per this timeframe, price appears relatively free to trade lower down to at least a valid ‘weekly buy zone’ seen at 1156.70-1194.45.

GOLD WEEKLY

Daily Timeframe: The gold market significantly decreased in value last week, resulting in price closing the week at 1229.29 just above a minor daily-decision-point level at 1227.66. Our first impression of this level was not fantastic, and as such, we expect this level to break sometime during the week. Once, or indeed if a decline in value is seen, things would likely get very interesting.

GOLD DAILY

Below this level appears to be nothing but consumed demand on this timeframe, take note of the prominent tails to the left (1214.84/1218.35), these tails likely consumed any serious buy orders before rallying higher, and thus clearing the path south for any future selling. Assuming the level does see a significant break lower, the next key area of interest comes in at a daily Quasimodo support level (1211.67), which will very likely see some sort of bullish reaction, since at this point price would be trading very close to the aforementioned ‘weekly buy zone’ at 1156.70-1194.45.

4hr Timeframe: The 4hr demand area at 1231.56-1235.85 was consumed late last week; this will very likely encourage follow-through selling down to an obvious 4hr support flip level at 1223.33. The zone between these two areas is likely free of any demand, since if one takes a look back in history (between this zone), a tail seen at 1227.15 should jump out at you and shout: ‘CONSUMED, READY FOR LOWER PRICES!’

We will only allocate a price action confirmation buy level above the aforementioned 4hr support flip level at 1224.54, since price could very well continue on south to more distinguishable levels (for levels see above – daily/weekly timeframe analysis).

GOLD 4HR

Pending orders/Price action confirmation levels:

  • Areas to watch for buy orders: Pending orders: No pending buy orders are seen in the current market environment. Price action confirmation levels: 1224.54 (Stop loss: Dependent on price action after the level has been confirmed, Take profit level(s): Dependent on approaching price action after the level has been confirmed). 

Areas to watch for sell orders: Pending orders: No pending sell orders are seen in the current market environment. Price action confirmation levels: No price action confirmation sell levels are seen in the current market environment.