Wednesday 3rd September: Daily technical outlook and review.

For the readers’ benefit:

Price action confirmation: Simplymeans traders will likely wait for price action to confirm a level by consuming an opposing supply or demand area, then entering a trade on a possible retracement, this may occur on the lower timeframes also.

Pending orders: means pending orders are likely seen.

EUR/USD:

4hr TF.

The higher-timeframe picture resembles the following:

Weekly TF: Current trading action is taking place deep within a weekly demand area at 1.31037-1.32262; a close below here could force prices down to weekly demand at 1.26591-1.28010.

Daily TF: At the time of writing, a bullish pin-bar pattern has formed deep within the daily demand area at 1.31037-1.31755 (located deep within the aforementioned current weekly demand area). If buying interest comes into the market here, the first trouble area on the horizon is a small daily decision-point level at 1.31915 positioned just above the daily demand area. Assuming that a close below is seen, we see very little stopping price from hitting the daily demand area at 1.27541-1.28676, which is based just within the weekly demand area at 1.26591-1.28010.

The buyers have begun to show some enthusiasm inside the 4hr demand area at 1.31037-1.31278, which is fantastic for us as we still have an active buy order placed in the market at 1.31333. The wick/spike marked with the blue arrow at 1.31356 may have consumed supply around the 1.31395 area to allow higher prices to continue, but only time will tell on this one!

(As per the previous analysis) If the buyers are intent on taking prices higher, our first take-profit target is set at 1.31833 (minor 4hr supply). Nevertheless, we still have to consider the possibility of price breaking below the aforementioned 4hr demand area.  A break below would no doubt force price to test the round number 1.31, if there are limited buy orders here, this opens the door for a challenge of the huge-figure number below at 1.3, since most of the demand has likely been consumed by the following tails/spikes: 1.30656/1.30475 (take a look for yourself, it’s a thing of beauty).

Pending orders/P.A confirmation levels:

  • The pending buy order (Green line) set just above 4hr demand (1.31037-1.31278) at 1.31333 is now active, so do keep an eye on our first take-profit target set at 1.31833.
  • No P.A confirmation buy levels (Red line) are seen in the current market environment.
  • No pending sell orders (Green line) are seen in the current market environment.
  • No P.A confirmation sell levels (Red line) are seen in the current environment.

EURUSD 4HR

Quick Recap:

Price can do one of three things in our opinion, 1. The buyers show interest from the 4hr demand area at 1.31037-1.31278 (active buy order at 1.31333), and attempt to trade up to our first take-profit target set at 1.31833, or 2, break below the aforementioned 4hr demand area and the round number 1.31, and attempt to trade down to the huge-figure number 1.30, which is very possible since there is very little obvious 4hr demand areas that would likely cause a problem to the sellers, or three, upon a break of the 4hr demand area, a rebound may be seen off of the round number 1.31.

  • Areas to watch for buy orders: P.O: 1.31333 (Active) SL: 1.30988 TP: [1] 1.31833 [2] 1.32064). P.A.C: No P.A confirmation buy levels are seen in the current market environment.
  • Areas to watch for sell orders: P.O: No pending sell orders are seen in the current market environment. P.A.C: No P.A confirmation sell levels are seen in the current market environment.

 

GBP/USD:

4hr TF.

The higher-timeframe picture resembles the following:

Weekly TF: Serious weakness is being presented within the weekly demand area at 1.64589-1.66339. A break below here could very well open the gates for a challenge of the weekly R/S flip level support at 1.62591.

Daily TF: Daily demand at 1.64589-1.64949 is seeing some action, as sellers slammed price into the area with a full-bodied bearish candle. As per this timeframe, if price successfully breaks below this daily demand area, we would be then looking for buy opportunities around the daily demand area at 1.62510-1.63401 (neatly placed just above the weekly R/S flip support level at 1.62591.

Very similar to Gold on the 4hr timeframe, it appears the pound has taken a nose dive off of the top diving board! Buyers stood no chance with the recent selling onslaught seen.  Buyers around the round number 1.65, and the 4hr decision-point level at 1.64895 have very likely been consumed – stopped out (including us).

The overall trend direction on this timeframe is clearly south, and with weakness being seen within weekly demand (levels above) at the moment, we have to be cautious when attempting to buy! The next area of interest that has taken our fancy is the 4hr decision-point area at 1.64246-1.64520 (a P.A confirmation buy level has been set just above at 1.64571). Assuming buyers come into the market around this area, it’s very possible active sellers are lurking just above at the round number 1.65, so for any traders considering going long here, it may pay to remain aware of this.

Pending orders/P.A confirmation levels:

  • The pending buy order (Green line) set just above a 4hr decision-point level (1.64895) at 1.64944 has been stopped out.
  • New P.A confirmation buy levels (Red line) are seen just above a 4hr decision-point area (1.64246-1.64520) at 1.64571. We remained cautious with this one, since the trend is predominantly south at the moment, and weakness is being seen within weekly demand at 1.64589-1.66339, hence the need for confirmation.
  • No pending sell orders (Green line) are seen in the current market environment.
  • No P.A confirmation sell levels (Red line) are seen in the current market environment.

GBPUSD 4HR

Quick Recap:

Aggressive selling has been seen on the GBP/USD, with buyers showing little to no interest at the moment. Nevertheless, a fresh 4hr decision-point area at 1.64246-1.64520 has caught our eye, so we placed a P.A confirmation buy level just above at 1.64571 since a bullish reaction is likely here. For traders considering going long here also, do be aware the round number above at 1.65, since it could prove a troublesome level to overcome.

  • Areas to watch for buy orders: P.O: No pending sell orders are seen in the current market environment. P.A.C: 1.64571 (SL: Dependent on price action after the level has been confirmed TP: Dependent on approaching price action after the level has been confirmed).
  • Areas to watch for sell orders: P.O: No pending sell orders are seen in the current market environment.  P.A.C: No P.A confirmation sell levels are seen in the current market environment.

 

AUD/USD:

4hr TF.

The higher-timeframe picture resembles the following:

Weekly TF: Price is still frustratingly trading within a weekly consolidation area with the upper limits seen at 0.94600, and the lower at 0.92046, with no signs of a break happening just yet.

Daily TF: The sellers have pushed back into the medium-term daily range (0.92046-0.92354/0.93529), with very little seen that could stop price from reaching the lower limits at 0.92046-0.92354.

The Aussie recently took a pounding, with little to no interest being seen by the buyers at either the round number 0.93, or the 4hr decision-point level at 0.92785.

if the Aussie decides to launch a recovery, we will be certainly looking to short the 4hr supply area above at 0.93509-0.93370 (a pending sell order is set just below at 0.93341), and maybe even the round number 0.93 with price action confirmation (a P.A confirmation level is set just below at 0.92976), since there are likely some unfilled sell orders left around this level.

Pending/P.A confirmation levels:

  • The pending buy order (Green line) set just above a 4hr decision-point level (0.92785) at 0.92807 has been stopped out.
  • The P.A confirmation buy level (Red line) set just above a 4hr decision-point level (0.93053) at 0.93076 has been removed since price has traded too far below the entry level, making this an invalid trade for the time being.
  • The pending sell order (Green line) set just below 4hr supply (0.93866-0.93728) at 0.93629 has been removed since price never returned to our entry level before hitting (which would’ve been) the first take-profit target around the 4hr decision-point level at 0.93053.
  • New pending sell orders (Green line) are seen just below a 4hr supply area (0.93509-0.93370) at 0.93341. The reason we’re confident a first-time reaction will likely be seen, is simply because this area remains untouched, and was likely where the overall decision was made to push prices further south below multiple lows.
  • New P.A confirmation sell levels (Red line) are seen just below the round number 0.93 at 0.92976. The only reason we have not set a pending sell order here is because pro money could perform a deep test (spike) of this area, or worse, completely ignore it altogether.

AUDUSD 4HR

Quick Recap:

After the recent selling seen on this pair, we are now watching the following levels for bearish reactions: the round number 0.93 (a P.A confirmation level is set just below at 0.92976), and the 4hr supply area at 0.93509-0.93370 (a pending sell order is set just below at 0.93341).

  • Areas to watch for buy orders: P.O: No pending buy orders are seen in the current market environment. P.A.C: No P.A confirmation levels are seen in the current market environment.
  • Areas to watch for sell orders: P.O: 0.93341 SL: 0.93533 TP: Dependent on how price approaches) P.A.C: 0.92976 (SL: Dependent on price action after the level has been confirmed TP: Dependent on approaching price action after the level has been confirmed).

 

USD/JPY:

4hr TF.

The higher-timeframe picture resembles the following:

Weekly TF: Serious buying has pushed price very deep within a weekly supply area at 105.432-104.065 with little interest being seen by the sellers at the moment, a break above here could likely trigger buying interest up to around a weekly supply area at 110.652-108.123.

Daily TF: In light of the recent buying activity seen on the daily timeframe, Price is now currently seen entering in a huge daily supply area at 106.946-105.083. To the left of current price there is very little stopping the buyers from pushing even higher (take a look at those mean wicks which likely consumed supply as price was declining [104.913/105.348]). This all however depends on whether pro money has the liquidity (sell orders for their buys) to push prices higher at this point, if not we can likely expect a retracement down to a beautiful-looking daily demand area at 103.544-103.911.

The recent strength seen on the USD/JPY pushed price above not only a 4hr supply area at 104.831-104.591, but also the round number 105. Looking to the far left of current price action; there is nothing (in our opinion) but consumed supply! Take a look at that huge spike/wick at 105.348 (originally seen on the daily timeframe, but much clearer on the 4hr timeframe) consuming 4hr supply around the 105.270 level, it is a thing of beauty!

So, from here, prices could very likely continue higher, a retest of the round number 105 could very well be seen soon, so we will set a P.A confirmation buy level just above at 105.028. If a break below here is seen, there’s very little stopping price on this timeframe from hitting the 4hr R/S flip level support at 104.264.

Pending/P.A confirmation levels:

  • No pending buy orders (Green line) are seen in the current market environment.
  • New P.A confirmation buy levels (Red line) are seen just above the round number 105 at 105.028. The reasoning behind setting a P.A confirmation buy level here is simply because round number levels are highly prone to deep spikes, which regularly stop traders out, hence the need for confirmation on this one.
  • The P.A confirmation buy level (Red line) set just above the round number 103 at 103.037 has been removed, since price is trading too far from the entry level for the time being.
  • The pending sell order (Green line) set just below 4hr supply (104.831-104.591) at 104.568 has been stopped out.
  • The P.A confirmation sell level (Red line) set just below 4hr resistance (104.264) at 104.227 has now been cancelled, because the sellers could not successfully confirm this level.

USDJPY 4HR

Quick Recap:

Aggressive buying has been seen recently on this pair, resulting in price closing above not only a 4hr supply area at 104.831-104.591, but also the round number 105 as well. We are now looking to play the retest of the aforementioned round number with a P.A confirmation buy level set just above at 105.028, since the path north looks relatively clear.

  • Areas to watch for buy orders: P.O: No pending buy orders are seen in the current market environment.  . P.A.C: 105.028 (SL: Dependent on price action after the level has been confirmed TP: Dependent on approaching price action after the level has been confirmed).
  • Areas to watch for sell orders: P.O: No pending sell orders are seen in the current market environment. P.A.C: No P.A confirmation sell levels are seen in the current market environment.

 

EUR/GBP:

4hr TF.

The higher-timeframe picture resembles the following:

Weekly TF: Serious selling pressure from the weekly decision-point area at 0.80328-0.79780 has quite possibly opened the door for a challenge of the weekly demand area below at 0.76931-0.78623.

Daily TF: Fresh buyers are being seen on the daily timeframe around the 0.78905 level, which in all honesty was unexpected, since we believed price would challenge the daily demand area below at 0.78117-0.78533. On this timeframe we see very little stopping price trading all the way back up to daily supply at 0.80328-0.80024. If we take a look on the 4hr timeframe, more nearer-term supply may present itself.

The Euro continues to push upward against the British pound, as the buyers aggressively bought off of the round number 0.79. We believe a bearish reaction may very well be seen at the 4hr decision-point level above current price at 0.79472 (P.A confirmation sell level set just below at 0.79456), since this level remains untouched indicating there may be unfilled sell orders waiting to be filled.

Nevertheless, if the buyers continue with this impressive onslaught and break above the aforementioned 4hr decision-point level, things would get very interesting. The wicks (0.79571/0.79658/0.79661) marked with arrows likely indicate supply consumption in our opinion, meaning price could effectively push higher with relative ease. We have our reservations concerning the 4hr supply area at 0.79778-0.79664 since this area has been spiked twice already, so with this in mind, a break above here could be seen if, or indeed when price reaches here.

Pending/P.A confirmation levels:

  • No pending buy orders (Green line) are seen in the current market environment.
  • No P.A confirmation buy levels (Red line) are seen are seen in the current market environment.
  • No Pending sell orders (Green line) are seen are seen in the current market environment.
  • New P.A confirmation sell levels (Red line) are seen just below the 4hr decision-point level (0.79472) at 0.79456. The reasoning behind not setting a pending sell order here was simply because just above this level appears to be consumed of supply, thus price may just ignore this level and continue on higher.

EURGBP 4HR

Quick Recap:

With the current buying being seen on this pair, we’re watching the 4hr decision-point level just above current price at 0.79472 for a bearish reaction (a P.A confirmation sell level is set just below at 0.79456). If this level gives way, it’s very possible higher prices will likely be seen up to at least the weak-looking 4hr supply area at 0.79778-0.79664.

  • Areas to watch for buy orders: P.O: No pending buy orders are seen in the current market environment. P.A.C: No P.A confirmation buy levels are seen in the current market environment.
  • Areas to watch for sell orders: P.O: No pending sell orders are seen in the current market environment. P.A.C: 0.79456 (SL: Dependent on price action after the level has been confirmed TP: Dependent on approaching price action after the level has been confirmed).

 

USD/CAD:

4hr TF.

The higher-timeframe picture resembles the following:

Weekly TF: Prices are stalling after hitting the awesome-looking weekly supply area at 1.10522-1.09996. Considering just the weekly timeframe for the moment, we still believe lower prices could be seen, since there’s very little stopping the sellers from challenging the weekly demand area below at 1.05715-1.07008.

Daily TF: The rebound from the daily S/R flip level at 1.08277 extended higher recently, with price seen edging ever so closer to testing the daily supply area above at 1.09967-1.09401, where we very much expect the sellers to show an appearance.

The 4hr timeframe shows the upward momentum could very well continue on this pair. The sellers situated around the 4hr supply area at 1.09073-1.08883, and the round number 1.09 have likely been consumed, meaning the path north may be clear to test at least the 4hr S/R flip level at 1.09311. A break above here would likely force prices to trade up to a nice-looking 4hr supply area at 1.09967-1.09807 (a P.A confirmation sell level is set just below at 1.09777).

However, before higher prices are seen, we can likely expect a correction towards a beautiful-looking fresh 4hr demand area at 1.08553-1.08681, where we have set a pending buy order just above at 1.08715. Ideally though, we would like to see prices hit this 4hr demand area, before hitting the aforementioned 4hr S/R flip level, since we do not want extra selling pressure against us. If our buy order is filled, we will be extra cautious here since we mustn’t forget that we are still trading out of weekly supply at 1.10522-1.09996.

Pending/P.A confirmation levels:

  • New pending buy orders (Green line) are seen just above 4hr demand (1.08553-1.08681) at 1.08715. The reason we have set a pending buy order here is because this area is fresh, meaning there are very likely unfilled buy orders sitting within.
  • No P.A confirmation buy levels (Red line) are seen in the current market environment.
  • Pending sell orders (Green line) are seen just below a 4hr supply area (1.10388-1.10163) at 1.10127. This area remains fresh, and likely contains unfilled sell orders indicating a bounce south at the very least will be seen if/when price reaches this area.
  • The P.A confirmation sell level (Red line) set just below 4hr supply (1.09073-1.08883) at 1.08856 has been removed since price traded too far above the entry level.
  • P.A confirmation sell levels (Red line) are seen just below 4hr supply (1.09967-1.09807) at 1.09777. The reasoning behind not setting a pending sell order here was simply because price could rally all the way back up to (in our opinion) a beautifully located 4hr supply area at 1.10388-1.10163.

USDCAD 4HR

Quick Recap:

Price has broken above the 4hr supply area at 1.09073-1.08883 and round number 1.09 likely consuming any traders attempting to sell in the process. This move potentially cleared the path up to at least the 4hr S/R flip level at 1.09311. Essentially, we want to see prices hit the 4hr demand area at 1.08553-1.08681 (pending buy order set just above at 1.08715) before hitting the aforementioned 4hr S/R flip level, since we do not want extra selling pressure against us on this trade.

  • Areas to watch for buy orders: P.O: 1.08715 (SL: 1.08526 TP: Dependent on how price approaches). P.A.C:No P.A confirmation buy levels seen in the current market environment.
  • Areas to watch for sell orders: P.O: 1.10127 (SL: 1.10440 TP: Dependent on how price approaches) P.A.C: 1.09777 (SL: Dependent on price action after the level has been confirmed TP: Dependent on approaching price action after the level has been confirmed).

 

USD/CHF:

4hr TF.

The higher-timeframe picture resembles the following:

Weekly TF: Price may have already retested the weekly decision-point level at 0.90927, as last week a rather pleasant-looking bullish pin bar formed a few pips above. Does this mean we should expect higher prices this week?

Daily TF: In our humble opinion, price appears to be clear north on this timeframe. Sellers originally situated around the daily supply area at 0.91556-0.90985 have very likely been consumed, the next set of serious sell orders are seen around daily supply at 0.94546-0.93448 (conveniently located within a weekly supply area at 0.94546-0.93081).

The 4hr timeframe shows that price has successfully closed above the round number 0.92, and at the time of writing a retest is currently being attempted. With both the higher timeframes showing very little supply (trouble areas) on the horizon (see above), our bias on this pair remains long, at least up until fresh 4hr supply at 0.92778-0.92469 (Take a look in history, it’s a beautiful area)!

If the retest of the round number fails, and price declines, the next area of interest where we believe active buy orders to be residing is at 0.91761-0.91872 (a pending buy order set just above at 0.91893), due to this being the likely area where pro money made the decision to push prices above the round number level in the first place..

Pending/P.A confirmation levels:

  • Pending buy orders (Green line) are seen just above a 4hr decision-point area (0.91376-0.91478) at 0.91494. The reason being is this area was likely where the decision was made to push above 4hr supply at 0.91892-0.91668, hence there very well may be unfilled buy order sitting there.
  • New pending buy orders (Green line) are seen just above a 4hr demand area (0.91761-0.91872) at 0.91893. This area is prime for a first-time reaction, as it likely holds unfilled buy orders that pro money left behind, which they will no doubt come back to collect sometime soon.
  • No P.A confirmation buy levels (Red line) are seen in the current market environment.
  • No P.A confirmation sell levels (Red line) are seen in the current market environment.
  • No pending sell orders (Green line) are seen in the current market environment.

USDCHF 4HR

Quick Recap:

Essentially, we believe higher prices will be seen on this pair. Sellers are very likely now consumed around the 4hr supply area at 0.91892-0.91668, indicating that prices may want to trade higher, so we’re looking to enter on a possible retracement around the 4hr demand area at 0.91761-0.91872 (pending buy order set just above at 0.91893).

  • Areas to watch for buy orders: P.O: 0.91494 (SL: 0.91352 TP: Dependent on how price approaches) 0.91893 (SL: 0.91743 TP: Dependent on how price approaches) P.A.C: No P.A confirmation buy levels are seen in the current market environment.
  • Areas to watch for sell orders: P.O: No pending sell orders are seen in the current market environment. P.A.C: No P.A confirmation sell levels are seen in the current market environment.

 

XAU/USD (GOLD)

4hr TF.

The higher-timeframe picture resembles the following:

Weekly TF: Price still remains trading between the weekly supply area above at 1391.97-1328.04 and a nice-looking weekly decision-point level below at 1244.04 with no attempt of a breakout yet to be seen.

Daily TF: A break below the daily S/R flip level at 1277.36 has been seen, consequently forcing price down to around a daily decision-point area at 1258.40-1270.30.

Literally, price looks like it has taken a nose dive off of the top diving board on the 4hr timeframe, with buyers showing little to no interest at the moment!

We initially thought higher prices were likely to be seen (as per our last analysis); this just goes to prove that we should all expect the unexpected in these markets! Our pending buy order set at 1283.60 stood no chance with the current selling onslaught, and as a result, we were forced to cover our position.

Ok, on to the next possible opportunity on Gold. As already mentioned above, the daily timeframe is now trading around a daily decision-point area at 1258.40-1270.30, so higher prices could well be seen from here. Taking a look on the 4hr chart, we have spotted a fresh 4hr demand area at 1258.40-1264.53 (located within the aforementioned daily decision-point area), in which we have placed a pending buy order just within at 1262.48. Price is very nearly trading within the zone at the time of writing, so we will be watching carefully. If buying interest is seen from around here, the first trouble area of supply in our opinion is around the 4hr S/R flip level at 1273.07.

Pending/P.A confirmation levels:

  • Pending buy orders (Green line) are seen just above 4hr demand (1258.40-1264.53) at 1262.48.  The reason a pending buy order has been set here, is because this area, in our opinion remains the overall origin of a big rally to the upside, likely meaning there are a lot of unfilled buy orders siting in and around this area, and also not forgetting, this 4hr area is neatly located with a daily decision-point area at 1258.40-1270.30.
  • The pending buy order (Green line) set just above the 4hr range area (1273.07-1283.13) at 1283.60 has been stopped out.
  • No P.A confirmation buy levels (Red line) are seen in the current market environment.
  • No pending sell orders (Green line) are seen in the current market environment.
  • No P.A confirmation sell levels (Red line) are seen in the current market environment.

GOLD 4HR

Quick Recap:

Heavy selling has been recently seen on Gold, this selling activity has brought prices all the way down to a beautiful-looking 4hr demand area at 1258.40-1264.53, where we currently have a pending buy order set within at 1262.48. We expect to see higher prices from here, due to price also trading around a daily decision-point area at 1258.40-1270.30.

  • Areas to watch for buy orders: P.O: 1262.48 (SL: 1256.40 TP: Dependent on how price approaches) P.A.C: No P.A confirmation buy levels are seen in the current market environment.
  • Areas to watch for sell orders: P.O: No pending sell orders are seen in the current market environment. P.A.C: No P.A confirmation sell levels are seen in the current market environment.