Global Markets:

  • Asian stock markets: Nikkei up 0.30 %, Shanghai Composite gained 0.60 %, Hang Seng rose 0.40 %, ASX gained 0.10 %
  • Commodities: Gold at $1288 (+0.05 %), Silver at $19.51 (+0.05 %), Crude Oil at $95.81 (-0.16 %)
  • Rates: US 10 year yield at 2.345

News & Data:

  • Australia AIG Manufacturing Index 47.3, Previous: 50.7
  • Japan Capital Spending 3.0 %, Expected: 3.8 %, Previous: 7.4 %
  • Chinese Manufacturing PMI 51.1, Expected: 51.2, Previous: 51.7
  • Chinese HSBC Manufacturing PMI 50.2, Expected: 50.3, Previous: 50.3

CFTC Positioning:

  • EUR net short 151K vs short 139K prior
  • JPY net short 103K vs short 87K prior
  • GBP net long 15.5K vs long 13K prior
  • AUD net long 42K vs long 37K prior
  • CAD net long 6K vs long 7K prior
  • CHF net short 13K vs short 15K prior
  • NZD net long 12K vs long 12K prior

The Week Ahead:

On Monday, we have a fairly busy start in the week with German GDP figures and Manufacturing PMI numbers out of the Euro Zone countries and the UK. Expectations for the GDP release are a decline of 0.2 % quarter-on-quarter and a rise of 0.8 % year-on-year. After the data events in Europe, it will likely be quiet as US and Canadian traders are off their desks for the Labour day holiday.

Tuesday, we will get Building Approvals and Current Account data out of Australia, followed by the RBA interest rate decision and statement. The central bank is expected to leave the key rate unchanged at 2.50 %, but will likely warn markets again of too high AUD levels. In the EU session, we’ll see Swiss GDP and UK Construction PMI releases. US ISM Manufacturing data will be the main event of the US session.

The following day, we’ll have a busy Asian session with Australian GDP, Chinese Services PMI numbers and a speech from RBA Governor Stevens. In Europe, the Euro Zone countries & the UK will release their Services PMI data and in the US session, the Bank of Canada will decide on interest rates.

On Thursday, the early key events will be Australian Retail Sales and Trade Balance, followed by German Factory Orders, the Bank of Japan press conference. At London noon, the Bank of England will decide on interest rates & the QE programme, followed by the ECB decision 45 minutes later. At 1330 BST, we’ll get the much anticipated ECB press conference, together with US Initial Jobless Claims. A bit later, the US will also release the ISM Non-Manufacturing PMI.

Finally, on Friday, the Euro Zone will publish their GDP figures and the US will release the NFP data & the unemployment rate. The last event of the week will be the Canadian Ivey PMI number at 15:00 BST.


Upcoming Events:

  • 06:00 GMT – German GDP (-0.2 % QoQ, +0.8 YoY)
  • 07:45 GMT – Italian Manufacturing PMI (50.8)
  • 07:50 GMT – French Manufacturing PMI (46.5)
  • 07:55 GMT – German Manufacturing PMI (52.0)
  • 08:00 GMT – Euro Zone Manufacturing PMI (50.8)
  • 08:30 GMT – UK Manufacturing PMI (55.0)