Global Markets:

  • Asian stock markets: Nikkei is down 0.50 %, Shanghai Composite up 0.25 %, Hang Seng declined 0.25 %, ASX is unchanged on the day
  • Commodities: Gold at $1291 (+0.05 %), Silver at $19.60 (-0.05 %), Crude Oil at $94.78 (+0.20 %)
  • Rates: US 10 year yield at 2.34

News & Data:

  • Japan National CPI 3.4 %, Previous: 3.6 %
  • Japan National Core CPI 3.3 %, Expected: 3.3 %, Previous: 3.3 %
  • Japan Tokyo CPI 2.7 %, Expected: 2.7 %, Previous: 2.7 %
  • Japan Tokyo Core CPI 2.8 %, Previous: 2.8 %
  • Japan Unemployment Rate 3.8 %, Expected: 3.7 %, Previous: 3.7 %
  • Japan Industrial Production 0.2 %, Expected: 1.0 %, Previous: -3.4 %
  • Japan Retail Sales YoY 0.5 %, Expected: 0.1 %, Previous: -0.6 %
  • New Zealand ANZ Business Confidence 24.4 %, Previous: 39.7 %
  • Australia Private Sector Credit 0.4 %, Expected: 0.5 %, Previous: 0.7 %

FX Overview:

The Asian FX session was very quiet and all major pairs consolidated after a bit chaotic European session yesterday. There is a lot of uncertainty right now and markets will probably stay in a risk-off mood until the situation Ukraine calms down a bit. Geopolitical tensions and plenty of data releases could bring us tomorrow two very lively trading sessions to end the week.

  • AUD – The commodity currencies have stayed well bid despite the turmoil and risk-off bias. AUD/USD opened in Asia around 0.9355 and traded within a 0.9346-58 range. Dealers in Asia reported bids towards 0.9320 and trailing stops in good size starting around 0.9290. To the topside, key resistance at 0.9372 and offers in front of the 0.94 level. The Aussie was again supported by cross flows, as AUD/NZD almost reached 1.12 after the Tokyo open. Meanwhile, AUD/JPY is consolidating around the 97.00 level as the Yen strengthens on geopolitical worries.
  • CAD – USD/CAD wasn’t able to rally yesterday, even after the strong US data releases. The market decided focused on the good average weekly earnings data out of Canada instead, and the focus now lies on the GDP figures later in the day. Many are anticipating that the numbers will beat expectations, but this leaves USD/CAD also prone to a squeeze should GDP disappoint. Offers at 1.0885, near the 200 DMA, while support lies at 1.0811 (55DMA). Corporate demand from 1.0820 down to the big figure and stops reported through 1.0810.
  • CHF – EUR/CHF broke sub-1.2050 briefly, but has recovered since then, hitting a session high of 1.2065 earlier. There were rumors of possible SNB activity in the market, but one local name noted that they have not seen any activities from the central bank yet. They said they don’t expect any intervention until 1.2020 since the SNB enjoys a lot of credibility and has no reason to act yet.
  • EUR – 1.3173-85 range overnight. EUR/USD is likely to consolidate between 1.3160-90 ahead of the important Euro Zone inflation figures, unless Ukraine gets the market moving again. Bids ahead of the 1.3150 barrier option, while offers seen from 1.32 up to 1.3220. Plenty of stops above 1.3225 and 1.3230.
  • JPY – USD/JPY started the day around 103.70 and remained in a tight range for the rest of the session. There were several Japanese data releases, but all arrived in line with expectations or very close to them, so it didn’t have much of an impact. Bids towards 103.50 and offers pre-104.00.

Upcoming Events:

  • 06:00 GMT – German Retail Sales (0.1 % MoM, 1.5 % YoY)
  • 06:00 GMT – UK Nationwide HPI (0.1 % MoM, 10.1 % YoY)
  • 09:00 GMT – Euro Zone CPI (0.3 % YoY)
  • 09:00 GMT – Euro Zone Core CPI (0.8 % YoY)
  • 09:00 GMT – Euro Zone Unemployment Rate (11.5 %)
  • 12:30 GMT – Canadian GDP (0.3 % MoM, 0.7 % QoQ)
  • 12:30 GMT – US Core PCE Price Index (0.1 % MoM)
  • 12:30 GMT – US Personal Spending (0.2 % MoM)
  • 12:30 GMT – US Personal Income (0.3 % MoM)
  • 13:45 GMT – US Chicago PMI
  • 13:55 GMT – US Michigan Consumer Sentiment (80.1)