For the readers’ benefit:

Price action confirmation: Simplymeans traders will likely wait for price action to confirm a level by consuming an opposing supply or demand area, then entering a trade on a possible retracement, this may occur on the lower timeframes also.

Pending orders: means pending orders are likely seen.

EUR/USD:

4hr TF.

The higher-timeframe picture resembles the following:

  • Weekly TF: After a solid close below weekly demand at 1.32940-1.34847, buyers and sellers are now seen battling it out within the weekly demand area below at 1.31037-1.32262.
  • Daily TF: Price is now trading just above a fantastic-looking daily demand area at 1.31037-1.31755. We are prepared for lower prices deeper into this daily demand area, but ultimately we do expect higher prices to be seen in the end.

The weekend gap saw the market open quite a bit lower than last week’s close (1.32383) at 1.31920. The gap down saw price ignore the round number 1.32 and trade directly into 4hr demand at 1.35599-1.31879.

We would have liked to have seen a nice fake/spike below the round number into the aforementioned 4hr demand area, as this would have likely indicated pro money were taking out the stops below the round number, thus giving pro money the much-needed liquidity for a push higher. As we can see, this did not happen.

What we’re going to be looking for now (considering price is trading not only above a beautiful-looking daily demand area, but also trading within a weekly demand area as well – levels above), is for price to close above the round number 1.32, and then retrace back to the aforementioned 4hr demand area, this is when we’ll be considering longs. However, if pro money want to get the very best prices, and they usually do, a push down to the next 4hr demand area below at 1.31037-1.31278 (very deep within the aforementioned higher-timeframe demand areas) may very well be seen.

Pending orders/P.A confirmation levels:

  • No pending buy orders (Green line) are seen in the current market environment.
  • No P.A confirmation buy levels (Red line) are seen in the current market environment.
  • The pending sell order (Green line) set just below the round number 1.33 at 1.32883 has now been removed since the trade hit its first target (4hr demand at 1.31559-1.31879) invalidating the trade.
  • P.A confirmation sell levels (Red line) are seen just below the 4hr D/S flip area (1.33360-1.33619) at 1.33322. The reasoning behind setting a P.A confirmation sell level here and not a pending sell order is because we have no logical area for a stop-loss order meaning price could push straight through this area.

EURUSD 4HR

Quick Recap:

Price is now firmly trading around a 4hr demand area at 1.31559-1.31879 (trading not only above a beautiful-looking daily demand area at 1.31037-1.31755, but also trading within a weekly demand area at 1.31037-1.32262 as well), if price closes above the round number 1.32, we’re then going to be looking for longs within the aforementioned 4hr demand area, but also, at the same time be prepared for a drop down to the next 4hr demand area below at 1.31037-1.31278 (very deep within the aforementioned higher-timeframe demand areas) may very well be seen.

  • Areas to watch for buy orders: P.O: No pending buy orders are seen in the current market environment. P.A.C: No P.A confirmation buy levels are seen in the current market environment.
  • Areas to watch for sell orders: P.O: No pending sell orders are seen in the current market environment. P.A.C: 1.33322 (SL: Dependent on price action after the level has been confirmed TP: Dependent on approaching price action after the level has been confirmed).

 

GBP/USD:

4hr TF.

The higher-timeframe picture resembles the following:

  • Weekly TF: There is clear selling pressure from the major weekly supply area at 1.76297-1.67702, as price has smashed through the weekly demand area at 1.66917-1.67939 with little trouble, and is now currently seen trading quite deep within the weekly demand area below at 1.64589-1.66339. Is there any chance higher prices will be seen from this weekly demand area?
  • Daily TF: Any buyers who attempted to trade the daily demand area at 1.65492-1.66044 have now likely been forced to cover their positions as a break below has been seen. The path south is very likely now clear down to the daily demand area at 1.64589-1.64949, nonetheless, we are fully prepared for price to retrace up to at least the daily supply area at 1.67364-1.67105 before the aforementioned daily demand area is hit.

Our pending buy order set just above 4hr demand (1.65492-1.65809) at 1.65878 has now been unfortunately stopped out form the weekend gap that saw the market open below last week’s close (1.65659) at 1.65441.

With most, if not all the buyers consumed around the aforementioned 4hr demand area, the path south is now likely free down to at least the round number 1.65, but more importantly a 4hr decision-point level which is lurking just below at 1.64895 (located deep within weekly demand at 1.64589-1.66339, and also just within a daily demand area at 1.64589-1.64949).

A bearish reaction has been recently seen around the round number 1.66, if we see a break below the low marked with a blue arrow at 1.65345, we will then be looking for a short-term sell around the round number level just mentioned, if, and we must emphasize the word ‘if’ here, we do not hit the round number below at 1.65 first. As already said this is only a short-term opportunity, and we are fully aware of where price is currently located within the higher timeframe picture, so we remain extra cautious with trades like this.

Pending orders/P.A confirmation levels:

  • The pending buy order (Green line) are set just above 4hr demand (1.65492-1.65809) at 1.65878 has been stopped out.
  • No P.A confirmation buy levels (Red line) are seen in the current market environment.
  • The pending sell order (Green line) set just below the 4hr D/S flip area (1.67389-1.67561) at 1.67327 has been removed since price has now traded too far from the entry level for the time being.
  • No P.A confirmation sell levels (Red line) are seen in the current market environment.

GBPUSD 4HR

Quick Recap:

Our pending buy order set just above the 4hr demand area (1.65492-1.65809) at 1.65878 has been stopped out. We now have our eye on a short-term sell opportunity around the round number 1.66 if price breaks below the low marked with a blue arrow at 1.65345, and we do not hit the round number below at 1.65 first, we will then be looking to enter at a possible retrace at the round number 1.66. As already said this is only a short-term opportunity, and we remain fully aware of where price is currently located within the higher timeframe picture (within a serious weekly demand area at 1.64589-1.66339.

  • Areas to watch for buy orders: P.O: No pending buy orders are seen in the current market environment. P.A.C: No P.A confirmation buy levels are seen in the current market environment.
  • Areas to watch for sell orders: P.O: No pending sell orders are seen in the current market environment.  P.A.C: No P.A confirmation sell levels are seen in the current market environment.

 

AUD/USD:

4hr TF.

The higher-timeframe picture resembles the following:

  • Weekly TF: Price is still frustratingly trading within a weekly consolidation area with the upper limits seen at 0.94600, and the lower at 0.92046, with no signs of a break happening just yet.
  • Daily TF: Price still remains caught trading between the daily demand area 0.92046-0.92354, and a daily decision-point level at 0.93529. A break above could see prices test daily supply at 0.94729-0.94175, conversely, a break below will likely see a push south towards a daily R/S flip level at 0.91323. Let’s also not forget, if a break below is indeed seen, this would effectively mean that price has broken below the weekly consolidation area (levels above) as well.

The market opened at 0.93066, and a nice-looking bullish pin bar formed. Things were looking very good for our long position (0.92417) at that time. A little buying was seen after the pin-bar candle formed, but was short lived as selling interest came into the market at around the 0.93225 level, and slammed prices below the round number 0.93. For anyone who follows our analysis on a regular basis, you may recall we said if a close below the round number 0.93 was seen, we would then think about liquidating our long position, as we have already taken some nice profits from this trade.

With our long position closed now, it is very much a waiting game for us on this pair. Price is now temporarily capped between the round number 0.93, and the 4hr decision-point level below at 0.92384, once a breakout of this area is seen, we will be looking to trade the retest.

Pending/P.A confirmation levels:

  • The pending buy order (Green line) set just above the 4hr decision-point level (0.92384) at 0.92417 is now closed with a nice bit of profit locked in.
  • No P.A confirmation buy levels (Red line) are seen in the current environment.
  • No pending sell orders (Green line) are seen in the current environment.
  • No P.A confirmation sell levels (Red line) are seen in the current market environment.

AUDUSD 4HR

Quick Recap:

With our long position closed at 0.92417, it is very much a waiting game for us on this pair now. Price is temporarily capped between the round number 0.93, and the 4hr decision-point level below at 0.92384, once a breakout of this area is seen, we will be looking to trade the retest.

  • Areas to watch for buy orders: P.O: No pending buy orders are seen in the current market environment. P.A.C: No P.A confirmation buy levels seen in the current market environment
  • Areas to watch for sell orders: P.O: No pending sell orders seen in the current market environment. P.A.C: No P.A confirmation sell levels seen in the current market environment.

 

USD/JPY:

4hr TF.

The higher-timeframe picture resembles the following:

  • Weekly TF: Buyers and sellers are now firmly trading around a beautiful-looking weekly supply area at 105.432-104.065. We will definitely begin looking for shorts now and any long positions will need confirmation as we could see some very serious selling take place either this week or the next.
  • Daily TF: A break above the daily supply area at 104.104-103.802 has been seen. This likely indicates a lot of the traders who attempted to fade this area with their stop-loss order too close have been stopped out. The path north appears to be relatively clear now up to the daily supply area at 104.831-104.505. However before this area gets hit, we must be prepared for a drop down to at least the daily R/S flip level at 102.713 since pro money may not have enough liquidity to push prices higher from here.

The weekend gap has pushed price even further above the 4hr supply area at 104.104-103.981 likely confirming there are no more sellers around this area left, and that the path north is clear up until the next area of interest (4hr supply at 104.831-104.591).

Here is a snippet from the last analysis, it still remains valid and is in our opinion well-worth remembering:

Even though we are trading below a weekly supply area (levels above) at the moment, we must not ignore the fact that both the daily and 4hr timeframes have potentially cleared the path north for higher prices (deeper into the weekly demand area – see above). However before higher prices are seen, pro money will require liquidity, this liquidity will be in the form of sell orders for their buy orders (the stops pro money have just taken above both the 4hr and daily supply areas are now buy orders, pro money cannot buy into them), so they may need to bring price south enticing traders to join in on the momentum, and fool traders into believing this is the start of a new downtrend from the weekly supply (levels above), once these sell orders come piling in, pro money will buy into these orders bit by bit thus giving them the much-needed liquidity for a further push north and to confuse the crap out of other traders.

However, the question we should all be asking ourselves is where would they likely bring prices down to? We believe it could either be the round number 103 (a P.A confirmation level is set just above at 103.037), or the 4hr demand area at 102.129-102.303, however do bear in mind this is only a guesstimate, and price could indeed drop further.

Pending/P.A confirmation levels:

  • No pending buy orders (Green line) are seen in the current market environment.
  • P.A confirmation buy levels (Red line) are seen just above the round number 103 at 103.037. The reason we have not set a pending buy order here is simply because pro money could either perform a deep test of this level, or ignore this level altogether.
  • No pending sell orders (Green line) are seen in the current market environment.
  • No P.A confirmation sell levels (Red line) are seen in the current market environment.

USDJPY 4HR

Quick Recap:

After the huge rally in price seen last week, and a close above the 4hr supply area at 104.104-103.981, we are now looking for a decline down to around the round number 103 (P.A confirmation level set just above at 103.037), or the 4hr demand area just below at 102.129-102.303 before higher prices are seen.

  • Areas to watch for buy orders: P.O: No pending buy orders are seen in the current market environment.  . P.A.C: 103.037 (SL: Dependent on price action after the level has been confirmed TP: Dependent on approaching price action after the level has been confirmed).
  • Areas to watch for sell orders: P.O: No pending sell orders are seen in the current market environment. P.A.C: No P.A confirmation sell levels are seen in the current market environment.

 

EUR/GBP:

4hr TF.

The higher-timeframe picture resembles the following:

  • Weekly TF: Two weeks ago a spike/wick was seen just above the weekly decision-point area at 0.80328-0.79780, indicating that some of the sellers around this area have been consumed, which also likely means price is now free to hit the weekly supply area above at 0.81397-0.80809.
  • Daily TF: The same spike/wick seen on the weekly timeframe, is exactly the same on this timeframe (only above daily supply at 0.80328-0.80024), meaning the path north is likely clear now up to the daily S/R flip level at 0.80809 (the lower base of the weekly timeframe supply area – see above), however before price can be pushed higher, pro money will need sell orders to buy into, and at the moment this does not seem to be the case. A decline in value may well be seen down to the next fresh daily demand area at 0.78117-0.78533 which is nicely located within the weekly demand area at 0.76931-0.78623.

The market opened much lower than last week’s close (0.79869) at 0.79677, where the buyers immediately took control. Four hours later, the tables had turned and it was the sellers’ turn. This selling has seen price close below the 4hr S/D flip area at 0.79792-0.79663. In our opinion there’s very little that will likely stop price, other than the area marked with a blue arrow at 0.79429 from trading all the way down to an obvious 4hr demand level at 0.79189 which has already seen a touch already, hence the need for confirmation on this level, rather than a pending buy order.

The 4hr supply area just above current price is well-worth keeping an eye on at the moment, as within this area was where pro money actually made the decision to push prices below the aforementioned 4hr S/D flip area, so there may very well be unfilled sell orders lurking within.

Pending/P.A confirmation levels:

  • No pending buy orders (Green line) are seen in the current market environment.
  • P.A confirmation buy levels (Red line) are seen just above a 4hr decision-point level (0.79189) at 0.79215. The reason for setting a P.A confirmation buy level, and not a pending buy order is simply because this level has seen a touch already indicating some of the buyers may have been consumed, thus weakening this area, hence the need for confirmation on this one.
  • No Pending sell orders (Green line) are seen are seen in the current market environment.
  • No P.A confirmation sell levels (Red line) are seen in the current market environment.

EURGBP 4HR

Quick Recap:

Price has broken south below a 4hr S/D flip area at 0.79792-0.79663, and we see very little stopping price, other than marked with a blue arrow at 0.79429 from trading all the way down to an obvious 4hr demand level at 0.79189 which has already seen a touch already, hence the need for confirmation on this level (P.A confirmation level set above at 0.79215), rather than a pending buy order.

  • Areas to watch for buy orders: P.O: No pending buy orders are seen in the current market environment.P.A.C: 0.79215 (SL: Dependent on price action after the level has been confirmed TP: Dependent on approaching price action after the level has been confirmed).
  • Areas to watch for sell orders: P.O: No pending sell orders are seen in the current market environment. P.A.C: No P.A confirmation sell levels are seen in the current market environment.

 

USD/CAD:

4hr TF.

The higher-timeframe picture resembles the following:

  • Weekly TF: The buyers at the moment seem to really want to push price further north possibly targeting a small weekly supply area at 1.10522-1.09996. Most of the sellers around the current weekly supply area at 1.09592-1.08133 are now very likely stopped out, so a push further north could be something we will see very soon.
  • Daily TF: The daily timeframe’s price action is very similar to the weekly timeframe, only on a slightly smaller scale. The sellers around the daily supply area at 1.09592-1.09156 have well and truly been consumed, which likely indicates that price is free to rally up to the next area of interest on this timeframe (daily supply at 1.10522-1.10133).

The market opened a little higher than last week’s close (1.09359) at 1.09592 which saw price hit a 4hr supply area at 1.09830-1.09652 for the third time! We did not expect this to happen around the open, as we favored lower prices.

Since price has not (yet) closed above the aforementioned 4hr supply area, our last analysis remains very much the same in that: the 4hr timeframe is currently indicating we may see lower prices down to at least the round number 1.09 (a P.A confirmation buy level is set just above at 1.09040). The red circle represents quite an important low (1.09311) as this was the low that formed the HH into the 4hr supply area above at 1.09830-1.09652, so once price closed below this as it did (marked with an arrow – 1.09269), and then price spiked north to collect any unfilled sell orders (1.09787), we can very likely assume the above suggests the possibility that there is little buying pressure now seen in the market from where price is trading at, at the moment, down to the round number 1.09, so a decline in value is very much expected

We are definitely not disagreeing with what the higher-timeframe picture is telling us (higher prices could be seen), all we are merely pointing out is that price will likely see a decline in value before higher prices are seen.

Pending/P.A confirmation levels:

  • No pending buy orders (Green line) are seen in the current market environment.
  • P.A confirmation buy levels (Red line) are seen just above the round number 1.09 at 1.09040. We have not placed a pending buy order here simply because pro money could test (deep spike) this area, and also there is no logical area (that is close enough) for a stop-loss order to be set.
  • Pending sell orders (Green line) are seen just below a 4hr supply area (1.10388-1.10163) at 1.10127. This area remains fresh, and likely contains unfilled sell orders indicating a bounce south at the very least will be seen if/when price reaches this area.
  • No P.A confirmation sell levels (Red line) are seen in the current market environment.

USDCAD 4HR

Quick Recap:

We still firmly believe that lower prices down to at least the round number 1.09 (P.A confirmation level set just above at 1.09040) will be seen, since most of the demand/buyers have already likely been consumed around the low 1.09311 marked with a red circle by price closing below at 1.09269 marked with a blue arrow.

  • Areas to watch for buy orders: P.O: No pending buy orders are seen in the current market environment. P.A.C:1.09040 (SL: Dependent on price action after the level has been confirmed TP: Dependent on approaching price action after the level has been confirmed).
  • Areas to watch for sell orders: P.O: 1.10127 (SL: 1.10440 TP: Dependent on how price approaches) P.A.C: No P.A confirmation sell levels are seen in the current market environment.

 

USD/CHF:

4hr TF.

The higher-timeframe picture resembles the following:

  • Weekly TF: A close above the weekly decision-point level at 0.90927 has been seen (keep an eye on a possible retest as support). Any sellers around this area have now very likely been stopped out, and on this timeframe the path north appears to be clear up to around the weekly supply area at 0.94546-0.93081.
  • Daily TF: Price has broken above the daily supply area at 0.91556-0.90985. Looking to the left of current price, there is nothing but ‘wicky’ price action indicating supply consumption i.e. no sellers left up to around the daily supply area at 0.94546-0.93448, however before this happens we must be prepared for a decline in value down to at least the daily S/D flip area at 0.90372-0.90042.

The market opened quite a way above last week’s close (0.91353) at 0.91710 seeing price immediately trading within 4hr supply at 0.91892-0.91668, and filling our pending sell order just below at 0.91637. Since the jump in price, not a lot of movement has been seen.

Since both the higher-timeframes indicate the possibility that lower prices could be seen (Above), we are fairly confident we will see some profit out of our current active short trade (entry level above). Our first trouble will be the minor  4hr S/R flip level at 0.91429 (our first take-profit target), if price closes below there, we see very little stopping it from hitting the 4hr demand area at 0.91025-0.91177. We did originally have a pending buy order set above there at 0.91201, but since price has just hit a serious 4hr supply area (levels above), our faith in this area has diminished, as the sellers could very well overwhelm any buyers lurking there. This area would have looked great to us if, and only if price had not hit the 4hr supply area above, but as we can all see it has, thus our prospective long trade has been invalidated.

Pending/P.A confirmation levels:

  • The pending buy order (Green line) set just above 4hr demand (0.91025-0.91177) at 0.91201 has been removed.
  • No P.A confirmation buy levels (Red line) are seen in the current market environment.
  • No P.A confirmation sell levels (Red line) are seen in the current market environment.
  • The pending sell order (Green line) set just below 4hr supply (0.91892-0.91668) at 0.91637 is now active, so do keep an eye on our first take-profit target set at 0.91429.

USDCHF 4HR

Quick Recap:

Around the open (0.91710) a jump in price was seen up to the 4hr supply area at 0.91892-0.91668, which has filled our pending sell order just below at 0.91637. Our first trouble area on this trade will be the minor  4hr S/R flip level at 0.91429 (our first take-profit target), if price closes below there, we see very little stopping price from hitting the 4hr demand area at 0.91025-0.91177.

  • Areas to watch for buy orders: P.O: No pending buy orders are seen in the current market environment. P.A.C: No P.A confirmation buy levels are seen in the current market environment.
  • Areas to watch for sell orders: P.O: 0.91637 (Active) SL: 0.91941 TP: [1] 0.91429 [2] 0.91177 [May be subject to change]) P.A.C: No P.A confirmation sell levels are seen in the current market environment.

 

XAU/USD (GOLD)

4hr TF.

The higher-timeframe picture resembles the following:

  • Weekly TF: Price still remains trading between the weekly supply area above at 1391.97-1328.04 and a nice-looking weekly decision-point level below at 1244.04 with no attempt of a breakout yet to be seen.
  • Daily TF: Last week saw some serious selling going on with the only notable buying interest being seen on Friday, as price hit a major daily S/R flip level at 1277.36. Just below this level is a beautiful-looking daily decision-point area at 1258.40-1270.30, so do be prepared for the possibility that pro money may fake below the major S/R flip level into this daily decision-point area, as this area likely contains unfilled buy orders. For the time being however, price remains capped between the daily decision-point level above at 1318.96, and the aforementioned major daily S/R flip level below.

For the time being, price seems to be confined within a small trading range (1282.91-1272.72), which is where a decision needs to be made either to breakout north or south.

Technically, not much has changed on this pair for the time being, and as a result, the last analysis still remains valid.  If we see a breakout south, there is very little to the left stopping price from dropping lower in our opinion to around the 4hr demand area at 1258.40-1264.53.

 (Snippet from the last analysis) However, we have to consider if pro money have the orders (liquidity) to push prices this low, and at the moment it appears to be no. The next area of logical 4hr supply (where active sell orders are likely sitting) is seen way up at 1319.28-1314.48, and this is likely where pro money would like to bring price before lower prices are seen. The area in the red circle may have some unfilled sell orders lurking within, but from what we can, see the wicks marked with arrows seem to have consumed most of the sellers.

So, unless pro money does already have the liquidity, and the 4hr demand area just mentioned sees a touch soon, it is a waiting game for us.

Pending/P.A confirmation levels:

  • Pending buy orders (Green line) are seen just above 4hr demand (1258.40-1264.53) at 1266.09.  The reason a pending buy order has been set here, is because this area in our opinion remains the overall origin of a big rally to the upside, likely meaning there are a lot of unfilled buy orders siting in and around this area.
  • No P.A confirmation buy levels (Red line) are seen in the current market environment.
  • No pending sell orders (Green line) are seen in the current market environment.
  • No P.A confirmation sell levels (Red line) are seen in the current market environment.

GOLD 4HR

Quick Recap:

Price seems to be confined in a small trading range for the moment (1282.91-1272.72), if the sellers’ breakout south, then price is very likely free down to around the 4hr demand area at 1258.40-1264.53 as there is very little demand to the left that will likely cause any problems. However for pro money to move price this far south, they need buy orders to sell into, and at the moment it appears they do not have the required amount, so a breakout north may well be seen. However, the only logical area of 4hr supply we can see is around 1319.28-1314.48, since supply within the red circle seems to have already been consumed by the wicks marked with blue arrows. So, unless pro money does already have the liquidity, and the 4hr demand area just mentioned sees a touch soon, it is a waiting game for us.

  • Areas to watch for buy orders: P.O: 1266.09 (SL: 1256.40 TP: Dependent on price approach) P.A.C: No P.A confirmation buy levels are seen in the current market environment.
  • Areas to watch for sell orders: P.O: No pending sell orders are seen in the current market environment. P.A.C: No P.A confirmation sell levels are seen in the current market environment.