Global Markets:

  • Asian stock markets: Nikkei is up 0.80 %, ASX gained 0.20 %, Shanghai Composite and Hang Seng both lost 0.80 %
  • Commodities: Gold at $1287, Silver at $19.38, Crude Oil at $93.22
  • Rates: US 10 year yield at 2.44

News & Data:

  • China HSBC China Manufacturing PMI 50.3, Expected: 51.5, Previous: 51.7
  • Japan Manufacturing PMI 52.4, Expected: 51.5, Previous: 50.5
  • Australia ANZ Consumer Confidence MoM -5.4 %, Previous: +0.6 %
  • Slightly more hawkish FOMC minutes than expected
  • Many Fed officials said job gains might bring rate rise sooner
  • FOMC agreed balance sheet should be cut gradually, predictably
  • Some FOMC participants more uncomfortable with forward guidance
  • Job market noticeably closer to normal and FOMC members differed on remaining slack

FX Update:

  • AUD – AUD/USD started the day at 0.9285, holding well despite broad USD strength after the FOMC minutes. The pair then traded lower ahead of the Chinese PMI release, driven by supply from leveraged funds. The number came indeed in lower than expected, which led to a drop to 0.9236. It has been able to bounce a bit since then, but the Aussie remains under pressure. AUD/NZD traded above 1.11 briefly, but fell back to 1.1050 after PMI data. Japanese names and other specs continue to have good demand for AUD/JPY and a clear break above 96.50 will increase momentum.
  • CAD – USD/CAD is slowly approaching the 1.10 level. Supply from local names and profit-taking orders from leveraged names noted ahead of the big figure, but this is unlikely to be a major obstacle. Bids building at 1.0960 and down to 1.0950 while trailing stops are concentrated around 1.0935/40. Above 1.10, next tech resistance at 1.1050 (April 23 high) and then not much until 1.1150 (Feb 27, March 12 highs).
  • EUR – Euro bears are finally seeing some decent momentum building in EUR/USD. The pair hit fresh lows overnight, at 1.3240. Talk of bids at 1.3220 and ahead of the 1.32 barriers. A close sub-1.3228 tech support would pave the way for a test of 1.3105, which is the September 13 low.
  • JPY – USD/JPY seems unstoppable in the past few sessions. Dealers are seeing steady demand from leveraged and real money names. Locals have been buyers overnight as well, but exporter supply and profit-taking flows capped the topside pre-104.00. Tech resistance lies at 104.15; a close above would signal a test of the post-Abenomics at 105.43 is near.
  • NZD – NZD/USD has broken below key support at 0.84, but has found some support at 0.8345, near the 61.8 % Fibo of the 2014 rally and February low. A close below will open for further losses towards 0.8120/25. Immediate resistance lies at 0.84 and then 0.8436 & 0.8465.

Upcoming Events:

  • 07:30 GMT – German Manufacturing PMI (51.5)
  • 07:30 GMT – German Services PMI (55.5)
  • 08:00 GMT – Euro Zone Manufacturing PMI (51.3)
  • 08:00 GMT – Euro Zone Services PMI (53.7)
  • 08:30 GMT – UK Retail Sales (0.4 % MoM, 3.5 % YoY)
  • 12:30 GMT – US Initial Jobless Claims (303k)
  • 13:45 GMT – US Manufacturing PMI (55.3)
  • 14:00 GMT – US Existing Home Sales (-0.5 % MoM)
  • 14:00 GMT – US Leading Indicators (0.6 %)
  • 14:00 GMT – Phily Fed (18)