Overnight Developments 

  • Germany wins it’s 4th World Cup against Argentina
  • It’s a national holiday in France so Happy Bastille Day to all French readers
  • New Zealand PSI 54.7 vs 54.1
  • New Zealand House Prices fall 0.3% m/m, 6.1% y/y
  • RBA boss Glenn Stevens warns complacency will deepen downturn
  • The Nikkei is up +0,77% at 15,280, the ASX is up +0,43% at 5,510, the Hang Seng is up 0,38% at 23,322 and the Shanghai Composite is up +0,38% at 2,054.
  • Gold is down -0,24% at 1,334, Silver is down -0,555% at 21,343 and Crude is down -0,24% at 100,58.
  • The US 10YR is up +0,42% at 2,531%.

COT Update

  • DXY: Specs still long and 80.00 holding, although we had an inside week.
  • Amongs the comm-dolls, CAD has seen inflows vs. AUD which saw modest outflows.
  • Amongst European FX, we saw outflows of capital last week. Euro remains weak.
  • Amongst Safe-Haven FX, there has been Jpy selling noted. Chf stable.
  • Speculative interest is highest in Gbp overall and lowest in Eur overall.
  • Most crowded trades: Aud(FX), Crude (Commodities).

Data on the Docket

Main events this week:

Monday: (Sunday = NZD PSI – bullish expectations) EU Ind.Prod. (bearish expectations)

Tuesday: AUD RBA Minutes, JPN BOJ Decision, UK CPI (bearish expectations), GER & EU ZEW, US Retail Sales + Empire State (bullish expectations), NZD CPI (bearish expectations)

Wednesday: CNY Retail Sales + Ind. Prod. + GDP, UK Unemployment (bullish expectations), EU Trade Balance, US PPI + TIC Flows + Ind. Prod. + Manuf. Prod. + Beige Book, CAD BOC Decision

Thursday: EU CPI, US Housing Starts + Jobless Claims + Building Permits + Philly Fed

Friday: EU Current Account (bearish expectations), CAD CPI (bearish expectations), US UoM + Leading Index (bearish expectations)

FX Update

Now that the FIFA World Cup is behind us, many traders are probably hoping to see some sort of pickup in directional moves and/or volatility…

EURUSD In slumber mode between 1.3600/3610. Offers are seen at 1.3630/40 with stops at 1.3650 and offers at 1.3670/75. Sell stops commence at 1.3600 with bids at 1.3590 and macro bids at 1.3585.

GBPUSD Equally non-interesting between 1.7113 and 1,7123. Offers commence at 1.7150/55 with large offers at 1.7180/7200 and stops just above. Bids seen at 1.7100 with stops at 1.7090 and macro bids at 1.7000.

USDJPY opened at 101.38 and has had a narrow 101.32 / 101.43 range. Japanese exporters offers are cited between 101.50/60, importer demand cited between 101.20/30 and semi-official demand 101.00/10. Option expiry’s at 101 and 101.60, but nothing of any great size.

AUDUSD The Aussie opened at 9394 unchanged from Friday’s close, RBA’s Stevens comments in the weekend newspapers saw a modest drop to 9373 and we now trade at 9384. There are no significant economic releases that will drive the markets, direction is likely to come from Asian equity markets. Buy stops seen at 9410 with offers 9420/30 and stops at 9445. Sell stops seen at 9375 with bids at 9370 and stops just below. Support is seen at 9359, 76.4% fibo on the 9329/9457 rise, resistance is seen at 9409, 50% fibo on the 9457/9361 fall.

NZDUSD Opened at 8800, rose to 8822 after the tier-2 data and has since retraced to 8815. Small offers at 8835 with stops at 8845 and large offers at 8850. Sell stops seen at 8790 with large bids at 8760 and bids mixed with stops at 8740/50.

USDCAD bounced strongly on Friday when disappointing jobs data had the shorts scurrying for cover, rising from 1.0634 to 1.0737 on the day. Corporate sell orders are touted between 1.0750/60 and stops are above 1.0765. Demand cited around 1.0700. Resistance seen 1.0751. 38.2% fibo on the 1.0961 / 1.0621 fall, 50% fibo on the same move is at 1.0791 and the 200DMA is at 1.0809.

Data on Tap today (all times GMT)

data

Good Luck today.