For the readers’ benefit:

Price action confirmation: simply means traders will likely wait for price action to confirm a level by consuming an opposing supply or demand area, then entering a trade on a possible retracement, this may occur on the lower timeframes also.

Pending orders: means pending orders are likely seen.


EUR/USD:

Weekly TF.

A quick update on the weekly timeframe shows buyers and sellers are still firmly dancing within weekly demand seen at 1.34760-1.36314.

EURUSD WEEKLY

Daily TF.

The daily timeframe shows why price is currently ‘dancing’ within the aforementioned weekly demand area (see above). The buyers are unable to break daily supply at 1.37297-1.36879 which is currently providing strong resistance to the market, as well as the sellers are seen to be unable to break the daily demand area below at 1.34760-1.35265. A break of either one of these areas will give us a good indication of the next possible direction.

Price still currently remains capped between the daily supply area, and daily demand below (levels above).

EURUSD DAILY

4hr TF.

Current price actions shows a small bearish reaction reaction was seen around the round number 1.36000 only managing 15 pips or so before the buyers took over.

The buyers drove price hard into the round number (level above) triggering possibly millions of sellers’ stops and breakout buy orders in the process. Where did price go to next? None other than the decision point level at 1.36076 above, where the sellers begun to show interest, as reported may happen in the last analysis. What did pro money do with all those buy orders??? They sold into them, thus giving them the much-needed liquidity required for a move such as this.

A decision now needs to be made, will we see a break below the low below at 1.35746, or will we see the buyers push price above the decision point level at 1.36076? We may very well get our answer today as high volatility is likely to be seen.

Pending/P.A confirmation orders:

  • No pending buy orders (Green line) are seen in the current market environment.
  • P.A confirmation buy orders (Red line) are seen just above demand (1.35018-1.35375) at 1.35417. The reason behind us placing a P.A confirmation buy order here, rather than a pending buy order is because the aforementioned demand area appears weak as deep spikes have been seen recently (marked with two arrows).
  • No pending sell orders (Green line) are seen in the current market environment.
  • P.A confirmation sell orders (Red line) are seen just below supply (1.37224-1.37028) at 1.36894. A P.A.C order was selected here due to the reaction seen at the aforementioned supply area proving its validity. However, pro money may well decide to push price higher into this supply area if/when price returns to it, thus making it a risky trade for a stop above the high 1.36995 which could be very easily be stopped out if a pending sell order was set, hence the need to wait for confirmation.
  • The P.A confirmation sell order (Red line) set just below the decision point level (1.36076) at 1.36053 is now active. Sellers will need to confirm this level by consuming some of the buyers around the low 1.35746; a pending sell order can then be set awaiting a possible retracement. 

EURUSD 4HR

Quick Recap:

The weekly timeframe still shows price trading within weekly demand at 1.34760-1.36314, while the daily timeframe shows the daily supply area at 1.37297-1.36879 is providing serious resistance to the market. Buyers have pushed price above the round number 1.36000 straight into our decision point level at 1.36076 where our P.A confirmation sell order (1.36053) has now been triggered. Price will likely meander between the decision point level (level above) and the low 1.35746 until volatility picks up, which should trigger a break of either one of these areas today giving us a better idea on short-term direction.

  • Areas to watch for buy orders: P.O: No pending buy orders are seen in the current market environment. P.A.C: 1.35417 (SL: Dependent on price action after the level has been confirmed TP: Dependent on approaching price action after the level has been confirmed).
  • Areas to watch for sell orders: P.O: No pending sell orders are seen in the current market environment.  P.A.C: 1.36894 (SL: Dependent on price action after the level has been confirmed TP: Dependent on approaching price action after the level has been confirmed) 1.36053 (Active-awaiting confirmation) (SL: 1.36121 TP: Dependent on approaching price action after the level has been confirmed).

 

GBP/USD:

Daily TF.

Let’s first just remind ourselves quickly on where we are currently on the weekly timeframe. Buyers have pushed price very deep into weekly supply at 1.76297-1.67702 with a little selling interest currently being seen.

On the daily timeframe we can see price is trading between daily supply above at 1.76279-1.73024 and a small daily S/R flip level at 1.69712. It is very possible one is surely thinking there has to be some other small resistance areas we could short at before we reach the aforementioned daily supply area right? Take a look at chart two below.

Chart 1:

GBPUSD DAILY CHART 1

Chart 2:

GBPUSD CHART 2

4hr TF.

Current price action on the 4hr timeframe has seen the sellers push price down to the round number 1.71000, faking out just below it stopping out lots of buyers and breakout sellers in the process!

The buyers are currently seen in control at the time of writing, if the sellers are consumed around minor supply (marked with an arrow) at 1.71371, there is very little stopping price from hitting the round number 1.72000 above.

Pending/P.A confirmation orders:

  • The pending buy order (Green line) set just above the round number 1.71000 at 1.71039 has been stopped out within a few pips.
  • P.A confirmation buy orders (Red line) are seen just above demand (1.70617-1.70459) at 1.70662. A reaction north is likely to be seen here as there is no doubt unfilled buy orders left around this area when pro money made the ‘decision’ to push higher. However deep spikes can occur around flip areas (levels above) such as these, hence the need to wait for confirmation.
  • No pending sell orders (Green line) are seen in the current market environment.
  • New P.A confirmation sell orders (Red line) are seen just below the round number 1.72000 at 1.71943. We have placed a P.A confirmation sell order here simply because these psychological levels are prone to deep tests/spikes, so sometimes it is better to wait for that all important confirmation.

GBPUSD 4HR

Quick Recap:

The daily timeframe shows there is little stopping price from hitting daily supply above at 1.76297-1.73024, while a small fakeout has been seen below the round number 1.71000 stopping our pending buy order (1.71039) out within 2 or 3 pips! There is very little stopping price from rallying to the round number 1.72000 above other than a small minor supply seen around 1.71371.  A deeper spike south may be likely seen to the 4hr S/R flip area at 1.70617-1.70459 before price will likely make a push above for the round number just mentioned.

  • Areas to watch for buy orders: P.O: 1.71039 (Stopped out) P.A.C: 1.70662 (likely to be set at 1.70423 TP: Dependent on approaching price action after the level has been confirmed).
  • Areas to watch for sell orders: P.O: No pending sell orders seen in the current market environment.  P.A.C: 1.71943 (SL: Dependent on price action after the level has been confirmed TP: Dependent on approaching price action after the level has been confirmed).

 

AUD/USD:

Daily TF.

We can see here that the buyers have reacted nicely to around the low 0.93208, is daily supply at 0.95425-0.94852 in for a second test?

AUDUSD DAILY

4hr TF.

It was reported in the last analysis that a rally to the round number 0.94000 should not be discounted, how true this was! At present the buyers and sellers are currently battling for position around the aforementioned round number.

If price does indeed break above this round number, the buyers’ first trouble area is likely to be seen around the decision point level at 0.94408. This level remains quite an important one due this being the location on this timeframe where pro money sellers decided to break the round number 0.94000, so do keep an eye on this decision point level.

At present we are currently seeing price capped between the aforementioned round number and 4hr demand below at 0.93208-0.93417.

Pending/P.A confirmation orders:

  • No pending buy orders (Green line) are seen in the current market environment.
  • P.A confirmation buy orders (Red line) are seen just above the decision point level (0.92566-0.92736) at 0.92775.  The reason for placing a P.A confirmation buy order here rather than pending buy order is simply because we are just above a daily demand ‘buy zone’ at 0.92046-0.92354, meaning pro money could very well just ignore this level completely and trade deeper into the aforementioned daily demand area, so, confirmation is the order of the day!
  • Pending sell orders (Green line) are seen just below supply (0.95425-0.95096) at 0.95052. A pending sell order is placed here due to this being an area where pro money was interested in before; see how close price came to the supply area? (Levels above), this indicates possible strong supply (selling pressure), so the next time price visits we can expect some sort of reaction.
  • The P.A confirmation sell order (Red line) set just below the round number 094000 at 0.93959 is now active. The sellers will need to confirm this level by consuming some of the buyers around the low 0.93406 (marked with a green flag) before a pending sell order is permitted to be set.

AUDUSD 4HR

Quick Recap:

Buyers on the daily timeframe clearly love the low 0.93208 as sellers are yet to show any interest at the moment. A rally to the round number 0.94000 has recently been seen on the 4hr timeframe triggering our P.A confirmation sell order at 0.93959 in the process. If a break above the aforementioned round number does happen, price will likely test the decision point level above at 0.94408.

  • Areas to watch for buy orders: P.O: No pending buy orders seen in the current market environment. P.A.C: 0.92775 (SL: Dependent on price action after the level has been confirmed TP: Dependent on approaching price action after the level has been confirmed).
  • Areas to watch for sell orders: P.O: 0.95052 (SL: 0.95467 TP: Depending on price approach). P.A.C: 0.93959 (Active-awaiting confirmation) (SL: Dependent on price action after the level has been confirmed TP: Dependent on approaching price action after the level has been confirmed).

 

USD/JPY:

Daily TF.

A quick heads up on the daily timeframe shows very little in the way of possible future long-term direction at present, with price being seen trading within a range (daily resistance: 102.713, daily demand: 100.747-100.967). Do not forget the weekly timeframe is still showing strong support around the 101.206 area though, so overall higher prices are still expected.

USDJPY DAILY

4hr TF.

The sellers are well and truly in control with no signs of letting up just yet. It was reported in the last analysis that price would likely drop to the first decision point level at 101.754, which did happen, only price smashed straight into it not seeing much of a fight from the buyers!

Price will still very likely visit the next decision point level just below at 101.400-101.465 where a bullish reaction will possibly be seen up to at least the old decision point level which is now resistance at 101.754

Pending/P.A confirmation orders:

  • Pending buy orders (Green line) are seen just above the decision-point level (101.400-101.465) at 101.483. The reason a pending buy order is valid here is for the simple fact this is where pro money were active, they made a decision to push prices higher, indicating there may very well be unfilled buy orders lurking here.
  • The pending buy order (Green line) set just above the decision-point level (101.754) at 101.771 has been stopped out.
  • No P.A confirmation buy orders (Red line) are seen in the current market environment.
  • Pending sell orders (Green line) are seen just below supply (103.294-102.983) at 102.953. A pending sell order was set here due to this being an area where likely unfilled sell orders are.
  • No P.A confirmation sell orders (Red line) are seen in the current market environment.

USDJPY 4HR

Quick Recap:

Little clue as to possible direction is seen on the daily timeframe as we are trading within a range (daily resistance: 102.713, daily demand: 100.747-100.967), while the 4hr timeframe the sellers have been, and still remain well and truly in control. The decision point level at 101.754 has been consumed along with our pending buy order set just above it at 101.771, making this area a resistance level to watch for a possible retest. It is doubtful the selling onslaught is over yet, as a visit to the decision point level at 101.400-101.465 is expected to happen very soon.

  • Areas to watch for buy orders: P.O: 101.483 (SL: 101.375 TP: Dependent on price approach).P.A.C: No P.A confirmation buy orders are seen in the current market environment.
  • Areas to watch for sell orders: P.O: 102.953 (SL: 103.317 TP: Dependent on price approach) P.A.C: No P.A confirmation sell orders are seen in the current market environment.

 

EUR/GBP:

Weekly TF.

On this timeframe we can clearly see price seems to be heading for weekly demand at 0.76931-0.78623. The green arc pattern resembles possible consumed demand, so there should be little obstruction left within this area to stop price reaching the aforementioned weekly demand area, but let’s take a closer look on the lower timeframes to see if this is the case.

EURGBP WEEKLY

Daily TF.

Chart one below shows a daily demand area at 0.78862-0.79206 that is not fresh, meaning there was not likely to be many buy orders remaining here, very wrong indeed! Clearly the spike down to the daily demand area (marked by an arrow) was not enough to consume the buyers.

Chart 1:

EURGBP DAILY CHART 1

Chart two shows there is buying interest around this daily demand area (levels above) with price now remaining capped between the aforementioned daily demand area and daily supply above at 0.80328-0.80024.

Chart 2:

EURGBP DAILY CHART 2

4hr TF.

Buyers and sellers still remain trading within supply (S/R flip level) at 0.79679 and 4hr demand below at 0.78862-0.79048 which is located deep within the daily demand area mentioned above (where price is currently seen reacting to).

Even if price does indeed trade to the 4hr S/R flip level just mentioned, price will still very likely trade lower to the 4hr demand area (levels above) before a positive break above is seen. The minor support level at 0.79139 looks just too good to resist. Pro money love to fake these types of levels into demand or supply. One can only imagine how many traders will be attempting to go long around this minor support level. So, pro money will want these stops which will be sell orders which they will happily to buy into (liquidity).

Pending/P.A confirmation orders:

  • Pending buy orders (Green line) are seen just above demand (0.78862-0.79048) at 0.79076. A pending buy order is placed here due to the aforementioned 4hr demand area’s location in the higher timeframes (Within the compressed green arc  from weekly demand: 0.76931-0.78623… Seen on Monday 7th July analysis), and daily demand at 0.78862-0.79206.
  • No P.A confirmation buy orders (Red line) are seen in the current market environment.
  • Pending sell orders (Green line) are seen just below the S/R flip level (0.79679) at 0.79641. Our rationale behind placing a pending sell order here is simply because this was a decision point area made at the aforementioned S/R flip level during NFP Thursday, meaning pro money were certainly active, and unfilled sell orders are more than likely still lurking there.
  • No P.A confirmation sell orders (Red line) are seen in the current market environment.

EURGBP 4HR

Quick Recap:

The weekly timeframe shows price seems to be heading into weekly demand at 0.76931-0.78623, while on the daily timeframe buyers have been seen reacting off of daily demand at 0.78862-0.79206. Price still remains trading between the 4hr S/R flip level at 0.79679 and 4hr demand below at 0.78862-0.79048 on the 4hr timeframe. Price will likely drop down to 4hr demand (levels above) before the S/R flip level sees a positive break north.

  • Areas to watch for buy orders: P.O: 0.79076 (SL: 0.78846 TP: Dependent on price approach) P.A.C: No P.A confirmation buy orders are seen in the current market environment.
  • Areas to watch for sell orders: P.O: 0.79641 (SL: 0.79747 TP: Dependent on price approach). P.A.C: No P.A confirmation sell orders are seen in the current market environment.

 

USD/CAD:

4hr TF.

The higher timeframe picture remains the same as the last analysis:

The higher timeframe picture is very interesting with both the weekly timeframe and daily timeframe seeing great-looking demand areas (1.05715-1.07008….1.05874-1.06680).

The buyers on the 4hr TF have been very active recently trading off of 4hr demand seen at 1.06041-1.06312. However traders are advised not to start buying just yet, remember it is never a great way to trade by CHASING price! Ideally we will wait for price to come to us back around the 4hr demand area below (levels above).

Price will likely see a decline in value back to the 4hr demand area, pro money requires liquidity to move prices higher. How do they do this? With orders and in this case sell orders. They need enough sell orders to cope with the huge amounts they trade to move the market. Do bear in mind this is just one scenario. Millions upon millions of traders saw this bullish momentum and no doubt jumped on the train, if pro money start selling into these buy orders pushing price south, these traders will be forced to cover their positions, thus giving pro money the opportunity to enter buy orders into the market in small batches, but as just said above, this is only one scenario, pro money no doubt have many tricks up their sleeves!

Pending/P.A confirmation orders:

  • Pending buy orders (Green line) are seen within demand (1.06041-1.06312) at 1.06229. Price will likely see a retracement into this demand area, and a bullish reaction will likely follow, as we are currently in higher timeframe demand (Weekly demand: 1.05715-1.07008 Daily demand: 1.05874-1.06680).
  • New pending buy orders (Green line) are seen just above demand (1.06041-1.06312) at 1.06462. Why did we place another buy pending order here? Take a look at current price action, notice a base has formed around the 1.06462 area, this could well be the place pro money drop price to before a bigger rally higher follows.
  • No P.A confirmation buy orders (Red line) are seen in the current market environment.
  • Pending sell orders (Green line) are seen just below a small supply area (1.07508-1.07434) at 1.07386. A pending sell order has been set here since a bounce from this area will likely be seen if/when price reaches here, as the momentum from this area was quite strong, indicating unfilled sell orders may still be set there.
  • No P.A confirmation sell orders (Red line) are seen in the current market environment.

USDCAD 4HR

Quick Recap:

With price being seen trading in serious higher-timeframe demand areas (Weekly demand: 1.05715-1.07008 Daily demand: 1.05874-1.06680), higher prices are naturally expected! Buyers have recently been active on the 4hr timeframe pushing price hard. A likely decline in value will be seen to around the 4hr demand area at 1.06041-1.06312 which will trigger should trigger one or both of the pending buy orders (1.06229/1.06462) in the process.

  • Areas to watch for buy orders: P.O: 1.06229 SL: 1.05951 TP: Dependent on price approach) 1.06462 SL: 1.05951 TP: Dependent on price approach. P.A.C: There are no P.A confirmation buy orders seen within the current market environment.
  • Areas to watch for sell orders: P.O:1.07386 (SL: 1.07541 TP: Dependent on price approach) P.A.C: There are no P.A confirmation sell orders seen within the current market environment.

USD/CHF:

4Hr

A break of the low 0.89245 is currently taking place. A break of this low could certainly open the path to lower prices as most of the buyers will no doubt be consumed at this point.

However we must be very careful here as this could just as well be a fakeout south for higher prices. Remember we have already seen a small break above an important high at 0.89557 meaning higher prices could indeed happen from here.

If price closes below this level (0.89245), it will likely mean we will see lower prices to at least the round number below at 0.89000.

Pending/P.A confirmation orders:

  • No pending buy orders (Green line) are seen in the current market environment.
  • P.A confirmation buy orders (Red line) are seen just above the low 0.88546 at 0.88586. The reason that a P.A confirmation buy order was set here rather than a pending buy order was simply because there is no logical area for a stop loss, and the low (level above) will be likely prone to deep tests, or worse, a positive break below, hence the need to wait for confirmation.
  • No pending sell orders (Green line) are seen in the current market environment.
  • The P.A confirmation sell order (Red line) set just below the high 0.89557 at 0.89514 is now active. To confirm this level the sellers must consume some of the buyers around the low marked with a horizontal level at 0.89245, this will allow a pending sell order to be set awaiting a possible retracement.

USDCHF 4HR

Quick Recap:

Sellers seem to be in the process of breaking the low 0.89245. Traders will need to be careful here as this break could very well be a fakeout for higher prices to resume. Remember we have already had a spike above an important high at 0.89557 meaning higher prices are likely soon. If we do get a positive close below the aforementioned low, we will likely see price touching base with the round number below at 0.89000 as there is very little to stop once or if the low gets fully consumed,

  • Areas to watch for buy orders: P.O: There are currently no pending buy orders seen within the current market environment. P.A.C: 0.88586 (SL: Dependent on price action after the level has been confirmed TP: Dependent on approaching price action after the level has been confirmed).
  • Areas to watch for sell orders: P.O: There are currently no pending sell orders seen within the current market environment. P.A.C (Active-awaiting confirmation) 0.89514 (SL: likely to be set at 0.89624 TP: Dependent on approaching price action after the level has been confirmed).

 

XAU/USD:

Daily TF.

Here is where we are currently on the daily timeframe, as most would probably agree; daily supply at 1318.12-1331.08 is a right mess at the moment with wick and tails going in all directions!

GOLD DAILY

4hr TF.

Technically, not a lot has changed on this pair as no break of either 4hr demand at 1304.77-1308.55 or 4hr supply above at 1342.30-1335.74.

Again, much the same as the last analysis:

Price spiking above daily supply (levels above) nearly hit a great-looking 4hr supply area at 1342.30-1335.74. Now, if this is indeed a fakeout above daily supply (levels above), price may yet rally prices further into the aforementioned 4hr supply area to consume all the sellers’ stops lurking above daily supply (levels above).

If price positively closes below 4hr demand at 1304.77-1308.55 we can be quite confident it was indeed a fakeout without the need for price to rally higher in the 4hr supply area (levels above). If, however price consumes the 4hr supply area above (1342.30-1335.74), we can be pretty sure it is a continuation move. Only time will tell, but we definitely favor a fakeout

Pending/P.A confirmation orders:

  • No pending buy orders (Green line) are seen in the current market environment.
  • P.A confirmation buy orders (Red line) are seen just above the S/D flip area (1284.77-1280.53) at 1285.71. We have set a P.A confirmation buy order here simply because we could not find a logical area for the stop-loss order, so to avoid any deep spikes; we have decided to wait for confirmation.
  • P.A confirmation buy orders (Red line) are seen just above demand (1304.77-1308.55) at 1309.75. We did not think a pending buy order was wise here due to the amount of spikes/tails seen already to this area, hence the need to wait for confirmation.
  • Pending sell orders (Green line) are seen just below supply (1342.30-1335.74) at 1334.17. A pending sell order is set here because this is the likely area pro money will push prices to if indeed a fakeout of daily supply (1318.12-1331.08) is happening, thus a pending sell order is valid.
  • No P.A confirmation sell orders (Red line) are seen in the current market environment.

GOLD 4HR

Quick Recap:

Exactly the same as the last analysis!

The daily timeframe shows price is still trading around daily supply at 1318.12-1331.08. It is very difficult to see if the wick/spike above the aforementioned daily supply area was a genuine continuation move or a fakeout. The 4hr timeframe shows price is currently trading in between 4hr demand at 1304.77-1308.55 and 4hr supply at 1342.30-1335.74 with a break yet to be seen either side, however do watch these areas just mentioned as a break of either could very well answer our questions as to whether a fakeout of daily supply (1318.12-1331) is occurring.

  • Areas to watch for buy orders: P.O: There are currently no pending buy orders seen in the current market environment. P.A.C: 1285.71 (SL: (SL: Dependent on price action after the level has been confirmed TP: Dependent on approaching price action after the level has been confirmed) 1309.75 (SL likely to be set at 1303.11 TP: Dependent on approaching price action after the level has been confirmed).
  • Areas to watch for sell orders: P.O: 1334.17 SL: 1343.78 TP: Dependent on approaching price action)    P.A.C: There are currently no P.A confirmation sell orders seen in the current market environment