Overnight Developments

  • China CPI 2.3% vs 2.4% expected
  • China PPI -1.1% vs -1.0% expected
  • Westpac’s July Consumer Confidence Index 1.9% vs 0.2% prior
  • Citigroup may pay $7 billion to resolve US mortgage probes
  • UK June BRC Shop Price Index -1.8%, prices fell the most since 2006
  • RBNZ’s McDermott: monetary policy focus is on low inflation, inflation pressure are expected to increase as economy grows faster than potential
  • US’s Lew supports China push to let market play a bigger role / China moving to a market-set exchange rate is crucial
  • Goldman’s CEO: Long term Chinese growth are good and country can resolve shadow banking and local debt problems
  • Alcoa posts 0.18 per share against 0.12 expected, revenue $5.84 billion against $5.66 million expected.
  • Asian equities followed Wall Street and were in negative territory, despite Alcoa posting better than expected earning report that came out after hours.
  • The top news item is definitely the 7-1 victory for Germany over Brazil in the FIFA World Cup. And right before the national holiday in Brazil…
  • The Nikkei is currently down -0,48% at 15,240, the Hang Seng is down -1,36%% at 23,222, the Asx is also down -1,12% at 5,449 and the Shanghai Composite is down -0,35% at 2,056.
  • Gold is up +0,54% at 1323,6, Silver is up 0,67% at 21,153, Crude is up +0,13% at 103,54
  • The US 10YR is up +0,20% at 2,570.

FX Update

AUDUSD opened at 9398 and consolidated between 9391 and 9416, the early move higher meeting local corporate supply, the fall in Asian equity markets prompted some profit-taking and sent the Aussie to 9392, currently barely changed from the opening level at 9396. Small stops are seen between 9365 and 9380; bids are seen at 9360 and stops 9330. Topside we’ve got offfers at 9430/35 with stops 10 pips higher and larger offers at 9455.

USDJPY followed the Nikkei, opening at 101,57 the pair dropped to 101,45 as the Nikkei opened down 0,80%. As the index pared back some losses, the pair climbed higher to 101,66 and currently at 101,63. Exporter supply is cited between 101,70/80, light stops below 101,40 and good demand once again between 101,20/25. Macro stops seen at 100,50. Stops and strong offers seen also at 102,30/40.

EURUSD consolidated between 1,3610/24, little in the way of flows seen. Maybe we will need to wait for German traders to come online today and release their enthusiasm for the 7-1 victory over Brazil onto the markets…Large offers at 1,3640/50 with offers & stops at 1,3700. Bids commence at 1,3590 with stops 1,3575 and more bids at 1,3550.

GBPUSD has seen some modest profit taking after the BRC data, going from 1,7140 to 1,7120s. Stops are seen at 1,7080 with bids 10 pips lower and large bids in the 1,7030s. Topside stops at 1,7145 with offers at 1,7150 and offers/stops at 1,7180.

USDCAD is still holding onto it’s recent gains, going from 1,0670 to 1,0683 where we currently sit. Stops are seen at 1,0695 with offers at 1,0710 and large stops at 1,0720. Small stops below the overnight low, with large bids at 1,0660 and stops 1,0630.

Data on Tap today (all times GMT)


Good Luck today.