For the readers’ benefit:

Price action confirmation: simply means traders will likely wait for price action to confirm a level by consuming the opposing supply or demand area, then entering a trade on a possible retracement, this may occur on the lower timeframes also.

Pending orders: means pending orders are likely seen.


EUR/USD:

Daily TF.

Daily supply at 1.37342-1.36890 has more than proved itself here with the buyers showing very little interest at the moment. Buyers will more than likely show their selves around daily demand below at 1.34770-1.35557 which will obviously be the first trouble area for the sellers.

eurusddaily

4hr TF.

The decision point level marked with an x at 1.36454 did hold price up for a while where a minor bullish reaction was seen as reported may happen in the last analysis. During NFP price broke this level south, hitting the round number just below at 1.36000 where price is currently seen trading at the moment.

If price continues on its bearish path, we may well see the buyers at the round number (level above) consumed, meaning the path south will likely be clear to hit 4hr demand below at 1.35036-1.35312.  Why will the path be clear? Take a look at the small trendline to the left, it appears pro money have consumed the majority of the buyers lurking around this area, as once price rallied, it then spiked down to consume what buyers were left, hence the expectation of a clear path.

At the time of writing, price is capped between the round number 1.36000 as acting support, and the decision point level marked with an x at 1.36454 as acting resistance.

Pending/P.A confirmation orders:

  • No pending buy orders (Green line) are seen in the current market environment.
  • P.A confirmation buy orders (Red line) are seen just above demand (1.35036-1.35312) at 1.35433. The reason behind us placing a P.A confirmation buy order here, rather than a pending buy order is because the aforementioned demand area appears weak as deep spikes have been seen recently (marked with two arrows), and also the circled tail/spike could have cleared out the majority of buy orders as it left on its advance.
  • The P.A confirmation buy order (Red line) set just above the round number 1.36000 at 1.36052 is now active. The buyers will need to confirm this level by consuming some of the sellers in and around the S/R flip level at 1.36666 for a pending buy order to be set awaiting a possible retracement.
  • The pending sell order (Green line) set at 1.36955 just below supply at 1.37235-1.37005 has now been closed in full profit with price hitting our second and final take-profit level at the round number 1.36000.
  • Pending sell orders (Green line) are seen just below supply (1.37749-1.37450) at 1.37414. A pending sell order is set here as we believe this 4hr supply is good for at least a bounce as it still remains fresh/untouched.

eurusdh4

Quick Recap:

The daily timeframe shows the sellers have taken control for the time being from around daily supply at 1.37342-1.36890, while on the 4hr timeframe, our short position up from 4hr supply (1.37235-1.37005) at 1.36955 has hit its second and final target below at the round number 1.36000, which in turn triggered our P.A confirmation buy order set at 1.36052. Buyers will need to prove this level by consuming some or most of the sellers around the S/R flip level at 1.36666 above before a pending buy order is even considered. However, if price breaks the round number (south) just mentioned, we will very likely see a touch at the 4hr demand (1.35036-1.35312) below may be later on today sometime or early next week.

  • Areas to watch for buy orders: P.O: No pending buy orders are seen in the current market environment. P.A.C: 1.35433 (SL: Dependent on price action after the level has been confirmed TP: Dependent on approaching price action after the level has been confirmed) 1.36052 (Active-awaiting confirmation) (SL: Dependent on price action after the level has been confirmed TP: Dependent on approaching price action after the level has been confirmed).
  • Areas to watch for sell orders: P.O: 1.36955 (Closed in full profit) (SL: 1.37270 TP: [1] 1.36666 [2] 1.36000) 1.37414 (SL: 1.37785 TP: Dependent on price action approach). P.A.C: No P.A confirmation sell orders are seen in the current market environment.

 

GBP/USD:

4hr TF.

It was reported in the last analysis, serious sellers were not likely to show interest until price was seen trading around the round number above at 1.72000, clearly this did not happen!

Price has retraced and reacted beautifully to the round number 1.71000 below. If price consumes the high marked with an x at 1.71767, price will very likely hit the round number 1.72000 above where selling pressure is expected to be seen, if only for a small bounce, as the buyers seem adamant on taking price higher to daily supply at 1.76290-1.73110 at the moment as shown in the last analysis

Price still remains capped between the round numbers 1.71000 and 1.72000 with a positive break either side yet to be seen.

Pending/P.A confirmation orders:

  • Pending buy orders (Green line) are seen just above the decision point (demand) area (1.70066-1.70272) at 1.70288. A pending order is set here as we believe this area will very likely see a bullish reaction, even if only for a bounce, as this is likely the work of pro money, meaning they may not have filled all their buy orders around this level, thus unfilled orders may still be lurking there.
  • The P.A confirmation buy order (Red line) set around the round number 1.71000 at 1.71030 is now active. The buyers will need to confirm this level by consuming some or most of the sellers around the high marked with an x at 1.71767, before a pending buy order is permitted to be set awaiting a possible retracement.
  • P.A confirmation buy orders (Red line) are seen just above minor support (1.69431) at 1.69482. A reaction north is likely to be seen here, however we are currently seeing price trading within higher-timeframe supply on the weekly timeframe at 1.76290-1.70490, and with the spikes/tails seen south below the area (marked with arrows), this does not exactly instill much confidence in this level, hence the need for a confirmation buy order, rather than a pending buy order.
  • No pending sell orders (Green line) are seen in the current market environment.
  • No P.A confirmation sell orders (Red line) are seen in the current market environment.

gbpusdh4

Quick Recap:

A sharp drop in value was seen on the Pound during the NFP announcement, with sellers pushing price into the round number 1.71000 and triggering our P.A confirmation buy order set at 1.71030 in the process. If price consumes the high marked with an x at 1.71767, we have a good chance at price hitting the round number 1.72000 and small bearish reaction being seen. However, do be prepared that aforementioned round number will likely see a positive break north, before the round number 1.71000 below does.

  • Areas to watch for buy orders: P.O: 1.70288 (SL: 1.69983 TP: Dependent on price approach). P.A.C: 1.69482 (likely to be set at 1.69176 TP: Dependent on approaching price action after the level has been confirmed) 1.71030 (Active-awaiting confirmation) (SL: Dependent on price action after the level has been confirmed TP: Dependent on approaching price action after the level has been confirmed).
  • Areas to watch for sell orders: P.O: No pending sell orders seen in the current market environment.  P.A.C: No P.A confirmation sell orders seen in the current market environment.

 

AUD/USD:

Daily TF.

What a beautiful site that is, pro money sellers were obviously watching this daily supply area at 0.95434-0.94862 as price was seen bursting through the S/D flip demand area at 0.94468-0.93758 with little seen stopping price from hitting daily demand at 0.92054-0.92633.

audusddaily

4hr TF.

Oh my! The buyers did really not stand a chance with this onslaught of recent selling that has taken place. The 4hr decision point (demand) area at 0.94132-0.94221 has been well and truly consumed, along with the 4hr demand area below at 0.93542-0.93670 also. Buyers have begun to show interest around the 4hr D/S flip area (demand) area at 0.93186-0.93345 (all seen on chart one below).

Chart 1:

audusdh4 chart 1

Chart two below shows price is now currently trading in between 4hr demand (D/S flip area) at 0.93186-0.93345 and supply (D/S flip area) at 0.93542-0.93670).

Price on the daily timeframe shows there is very little stopping it from hitting daily demand below at 0.92054-0.92633 apart from the low 0.93218. If a break is seen of this low, lower prices should be expected.

Taking what we now know on the daily timeframe into consideration, if we see a positive break below the 4hr demand area at 0.93186-0.93345, price will have a very good chance of hitting 4hr demand below at 0.92037-0.92203.

Pending/P.A confirmation orders:

  • The pending buy order (Green line) set just above demand (0.93542-0.93670) at 0.93689 has been stopped out.
  • The pending buy order (Green line) set just above the decision point (demand) area (0.94132-0.94221) at 0.94244 has been stopped out.
  • The P.A confirmation buy order (Red line) set just above demand (0.93186-0.93345) at 0.93361 is now active. The buyers will need to confirm this area by consuming some or most of the sellers around a small minor supply (marked with an x) at 0.93821 for a pending buy order to be set awaiting a possible retracement.
  • The pending sell order (Green line) set within supply (0.95434-0.95057) at 0.95178 has been cancelled. Price dropped too far from the entry level for the time being.
  • No P.A confirmation sell orders (Red line) are seen in the current market environment.

Chart 2:

audusdh4 chart 2

Quick Recap:

A full onslaught of selling pressure was seen during the NFP, and in all honesty we did not expect two of our demand areas to be consumed in the process (see chart one above – 0.94132-0.94221….0.93542-0.93670), which in turn stopped out two of our pending buy orders (0.93689/0.94244). Price is currently seen trading between supply (D/S flip area) at 0.93542-0.93670 and demand (D/S flip area) at 0.93186-0.93345. Price will likely see a break of the 4hr demand area just mentioned as the daily timeframe is currently showing room to move south to daily demand at 0.92054-0.92633 with a little trouble area to overcome first (low: 0.93218).

  • Areas to watch for buy orders: P.O: No pending buy orders seen in the current market environment. P.A.C: 0.93361 (Active-awaiting confirmation) (SL: Dependent on price action after the level has been confirmed TP: Dependent on approaching price action after the level has been confirmed).
  • Areas to watch for sell orders: P.O: No pending sell orders seen in the current market environment. P.A.C: No P.A confirmation sell orders seen in the current market environment.

 

USD/JPY:

Daily TF.

Active buyers were still clearly lurking within daily demand (S/D flip area) at 101.532-100.787 with sellers yet to show any interest. Price still remains capped between the daily demand area just mentioned and daily supply (Minor resistance) at 102.645.

usdjpydaily

4hr TF.

Chart one shows the buyers took no prisoners before and during the NFP announcement. Two of our decision point levels (102.013/101.709) have been consumed north leaving the sellers with little choice but to cover their positions.

Chart 1:

usdjpyh4 chart 1

Chart two shows the alterations that need to be made. Price currently remains capped between the round number 102.000 as acting support, and the decision point (supply) at 102.367.

Price has a very good chance of hitting our decision point (supply) level at 102.367 still, with a bearish reaction expected, if only for a bounce, so any traders with pending sell orders around this level, once or if the order is filled, do remember to bail at the first sign of trouble due the current higher-timeframe picture (Weekly support: 101.254 Daily demand: see above).

 

Pending/P.A confirmation orders:

  • No pending buy orders (Green line) are seen in the current market environment.
  • The P.A confirmation buy order (red line) set just above the round number (101.000) at 101.027 has been removed. Price has rallied too far from the entry level for the time being.
  • Pending sell orders (Green line) are seen at 102.367. A pending order is valid here since this is the area where pro money made the ‘decision’ to break the low 102.113 and take prices lower into what was demand (101.427-101.660 seen on Monday 30th June analysis) at the time, meaning unfilled sell orders were likely left there in the process.
  • The pending sell order (Green line) set just below the decision point (102.103) at 102.084 has been stopped out.
  • The pending sell order (Green line) set just below the decision point (101.709) at 101.691 has been stopped out.
  • No P.A confirmation sell orders (Red line) are seen in the current market environment.

Chart 2:

usdjpyh4 chart 2

Quick Recap:

The daily timeframe is currently showing buying interest around daily demand at 101.532-100.787. Two decision point (supply) areas (102.103/101.709) were obliterated before and during the NFP announcement along with the pending sell orders set just below them (102.084/101.691). Price now remains capped between the round number 102.000 below acting as temporary support and 4hr supply (decision point) above at 102.367.A rally up towards the aforementioned supply level will likely be seen, where a bearish reaction is expected, if only for a bounce.

  • Areas to watch for buy orders: P.O: No pending buy orders are seen in the current market environment.P.A.C: No P.A confirmation buy orders are seen in the current market environment.
  • Areas to watch for sell orders: P.O: 102.367 (SL: 102.458 TP: Dependent on how price action approaches this area) P.A.C: No P.A confirmation sell orders are seen in the current market environment.

 

EUR/GBP:

Weekly TF.

The weekly timeframe shows sellers have pushed through weekly demand at 0.79596-0.80299, and are currently seen heading towards the large weekly demand area below at 0.77010-0.79140.

eurgbpweekly

Daily TF.

Buyers and sellers are seen battling it out deep within daily demand at 0.79282-0.79649. If a daily close is seen below this area, we may see price dropping to major daily support below at 0.77533.

With the weekly demand area (levels above) seeing a break south, it is very likely the daily demand area mentioned above will possibly follow suit, only time will tell!

eurgbpdaily

4hr TF.

Chart one below shows the sellers have aggressively consumed the 4hr demand area at 0.79405-0.79552 during and after the NFP announcement, price is now free to hit acting support below at the round number 0.79000.

Chart 1:

eurgbph4 chart 1

Chart two below shows the alterations that need to be made. Price is now free, with little to left stopping the sellers from hitting at least the round number 0.79000 below where a reaction is expected as this is the upper limit of the weekly demand area at 0.77010-0.79140 (see above). At the time of writing, price remains capped between the D/S flip area (supply) at 0.79405-0.79552 and the round number below at 0.79000 where price is likely to stay trading today due to the Americans being on vacation, but do keep an eye on both of these areas for possible trading opportunities.

Pending/P.A confirmation orders:

  • The pending buy order (Green line) set at 0.79580 just above demand at 0.79405-0.79552 has been stopped out.
  • New P.A confirmation buy orders (Red line) are seen just above the round number 0.79000 at 0.79054. Price will likely see a bullish reaction here due to it being located around the upper limit of a weekly demand area seen at 0.77010-0.79140. The reason we have not selected a pending buy order here is simply because there was no logical area for a stop-loss order, and as most traders know, these psychological numbers are magnets for deep spikes.
  • New pending sell orders (Green line) are seen just below 4hr supply (0.80647-0.80583) at 0.80297. Our rationale behind placing a pending sell order here is because the sellers have already confirmed this supply (using a P.A confirmation sell order set at 0.80293) area by consuming most of the buyers around (what was) 4hr demand (see 4th July analysis) at 0.79405-0.79552, thus instilling confidence in this area for a pending sell order to be set awaiting price to possibly return.
  • The P.A confirmation sell order (Red line) set under the S/R flip level 0.81403 at 0.81393 has been removed since price has dropped too far from the entry level for the time being.
  • The P.A confirmation sell order (Red line) set just under supply (0.80869-0.80771) at 0.80752 has been removed since price has dropped too far from the entry level for the time being.

Chart 2:

eurgbph4 chart 2

Quick Recap:

The weekly timeframe shows sellers have pushed through weekly demand at 0.79596-0.80299, while on the daily timeframe a small battle between the buyers and the sellers is being seen within daily demand at 0.79282-0.79649. 4hr demand at 0.79405-0.79552 has been well and truly consumed along with our pending buy order originally set at 0.79580. Price remains capped between the D/S flip area (supply) at 0.79405-0.79552 and the round number below at 0.79000 (a P.A confirmation buy order is set here at 0.79054) where price is likely to stay trading today due to the Americans being on vacation, so keep an eye on both of these areas for possible trading opportunities.

  • Areas to watch for buy orders: P.O: No pending buy orders are seen in the current market environment.  P.A.C: 0.79054 (SL: (SL: Dependent on price action after the level has been confirmed TP: Dependent on approaching price action after the level has been confirmed).
  • Areas to watch for sell orders: P.O: 0.80297 (SL: 0.80652 TP: Dependent on approaching price action). P.A.C: No P.A confirmation sell orders are seen in the current market environment.

 

USD/CAD:

Weekly TF.

The sellers are still seen aggressively pushing deeper into weekly demand at 1.05609-1.07372 with the buyers showing very little interest at the moment.

usdcadweekly

Daily TF.

Buyers did begin to show some enthusiasm within daily demand at 1.05883-1.06779 earlier, it did not last long though, as the sellers have recently been seen taking control once again!

usdcaddaily

4hr TF.

The 4hr timeframe shows the buyers did indeed confirm the 4hr demand area at 1.06101-1.06335 during the NFP announcement by consuming some/most of the sellers around the high marked with an x at 1.06776. First trouble areas (supply) from this 4hr demand (levels above) are seen around the round number 1.07000 area, so do keep a close eye on this area. If the 4hr demand area (levels above) does see a break south, price will likely trade directly into the round number 1.06000 lurking just below.

Pending/P.A confirmation orders:

  • The new pending buy order (Green line) set within demand (1.06101-1.06335) at 1.06317 is now active. We placed a pending buy order here as soon as we saw price consuming some of the sellers around the high at 1.06776, thus confirming this area (A P.A confirmation buy order was used previously set at 1.06370 to ‘confirm’ this area (see July 3rd analysis for details).
  • No P.A confirmation buy orders (Red line) are seen in the current market environment.
  • The pending sell order (Green line) set within the decision point supply area (1.08251-1.08164) at 1.08226 has been removed since price has dropped too far from the entry level for the time being.
  • Pending sell orders (Green line) are seen around the decision point level (1.07481) at 1.07461. A pending sell order is valid here due to this being the last ‘obvious’ decision made by pro money that consumed buyers around the S/R flip level at 1.07266, unfilled sell orders may have been left here in the process. However, we still have to remain aware, as we’re currently seeing price trading in higher-timeframe demand (Weekly: 1.05609-1.07372 Daily: 1.05883-1.06779), so we would need to exit this position at the first sign of trouble if the sell order does indeed get filled.
  • No P.A confirmation sell orders (Red line) are seen in the current market environment.

usdcadh4

Quick Recap:

Price is currently seen trading within both weekly and daily demand areas (1.05609-1.07372/1.05883-1.06779). The 4hr timeframe shows buyers were indeed active around the 4hr demand area at 1.06101-1.06335 as price confirmed this area by consuming some of the sellers lurking around the high 1.06776, allowing us to place a pending buy order at 1.06317, which was filled shortly after. Very little buying pressure is currently being seen; however, do keep an eye out for our first target around the 1.07000 area as price will likely visit this area if buyers begin showing interest once again, a drop below the 4hr demand area (levels above) could force price to test the round number below at 1.06000, so do be prepared for this as well.

  • Areas to watch for buy orders: P.O: 1.06317 (Active) SL: 1.05937 TP: 1.07000 [May be subject to change]) P.A.C: There are no P.A confirmation buy orders seen within the current market environment.
  • Areas to watch for sell orders: P.O:1.07461 (SL: 1.07550 TP: Dependent on how price approaches this level). P.A.C: There are no P.A confirmation sell orders seen within the current market environment).

 

USD/CHF:

4hr TF.

The buyers recently showed strength during the NFP announcement with an impressive full-bodied bullish candle seen consuming more than likely all of the traders attempting to short around 4hr supply (D/S flip area) at 0.88973-0.89168. As reported in yesterday’s analysis: If price breaks above the supply area just mentioned, price will be free to rally back up to 4hr supply at 0.90381-0.90033. Why is price likely free to do this? Notice the arrows marked the charts, these resemble wicks that have consumed supply i.e. sellers. So with most of the sellers already likely consumed in this area, buyers will be free to push price up until it hits probable supply (sellers) which will likely be around the 4hr supply at 0.90381-0.90033.

However, before pro money can rally price to 4hr supply (levels above), they will more than likely need liquidity to do so (sell orders to buy into). So, watch for a possible deep retracement, likely hitting the origin of the rally away from the daily S/R flip level at 0.88501, specifically targeting the 0.88669 area, before price hits 4hr supply (levels above).

Pending/P.A confirmation orders:

  • New pending buy orders (Green line) are seen just above the daily S/R flip level (0.88501) at 0.88669. The reason a pending order is permitted to be set here is simply because this is the origin of a nice rally to the upside. Price has also been seen entering into an area that appears clear (little supply) up until 4hr supply at 0.90381-0.90033; however, we expect pro money to need liquidity, and where better to look for this than the origin of the actual move up!
  • The P.A confirmation buy order (Red line) set just above the round number 0.88000 at 0.88039 has been removed since price has rallied too far from the entry level for the time being.
  • No pending sell orders (Green line) are seen in the current market environment.
  • P.A confirmation sell orders (Red line) are seen just below the round number 0.90000 and 4hr supply (0.90381-0.90033) at 0.89976. The reason a pending sell order was not used here is simply because the aforementioned 4hr supply area has seen a lot of touches, indicating supply may have weakened, so a need to wait for confirmation here is essential.

usdchfh4

Quick Recap:

The 4hr timeframe shows the buyers have aggressively pushed price higher consuming more than likely most of the sellers around the D/ S flip area (supply) at 0.88973-0.89168 in the process. From here price will likely see a deep retracement back to the origin of the move up around the 0.88561 area where we currently have a pending buy order waiting at 0.88669 which should be filled in the process, before we see our 4hr supply area hit at 0.90381-0.90033.

 

  • Areas to watch for buy orders: P.O: 0.88669 (SL: 0.88463 TP: Dependent on approaching price action P.A.C: There are currently no P.A confirmation buy orders seen within the current market environment.
  • Areas to watch for sell orders: P.O: There are currently no pending sell orders seen within the current market environment. P.A.C: 0.89976 (SL: likely to be set at 0.90415 TP: Dependent on approaching price action after the level has been confirmed).

 

XAU/USD (GOLD)

Daily TF.

The daily timeframe shows sellers had begun to show some enthusiasm around daily supply at 1331.13-1318.24, it appears it was short lived though! Let’s take a look on the lower timeframes to see what more information we can find.

xauusddaily

4hr TF.

A sharp drop has been seen towards demand (S/D flip area) at 1314.49-1309.37, where a subsequent reaction north was seen.

It was reported in the last analysis that:

Price will now very likely hit the 4hr supply area at 1342.46-1337.02 before price breaks the 4hr S/D flip area at 1314.49-1309.37 below, as pro money will likely want to collect as many of the stops (buy orders) as they can around this area to sell into. If this indeed is a fakeout above daily supply (1331.13-1318.24) as it appears it may be (at the time of writing), price may advance a little to 4hr supply at 1342.46-1337.02.as it works its way through the rest of the sellers’ stops.

Reading the above definitely seems to be the case right now, as the sellers could not break the demand area S/D flip area) at 1314.49-1309.37.

Pending/P.A confirmation orders:

  • Pending buy orders (Green line) are seen within demand (S/D flip area… 1284.88-1280.74) at 1282.82. We have set a pending buy order here due to the fact there was a decision made here (marked by the black horizontal level, when decisions are made by pro money, they may be unfilled buy orders left there, hence the fact we have set our pending order there.
  • Pending buy orders (Green line) are seen just above demand (1258.57-1265.27) at 1268.91. We are permitted to set a pending buy order here as the buyers have consumed sellers within (which was at the time of writing) supply at 1293.47-1285.52, as per the previous confirmation buy order originally set at 1266.00 (See Thursday 19th June for details).
  • No P.A confirmation buy orders (Red line) are seen in the current market environment.
  • Pending sell orders (Green line) are seen just below supply (1342.46-1337.02) at 1336.59. A pending sell order is set here because pro money love to get the cheapest prices, if price has indeed faked above daily supply at 1331.13-1318.24, pro money will want all of the stops (buy orders) around this area to sell into, hence a push up to the 4hr supply area mentioned above may well happen.
  • No P.A confirmation sell orders (Red line) are seen in the current market environment.

xauusdh4

Quick Recap:

The daily timeframe shows sellers did begin to show some energy around daily supply at 1331.13-1318.24, however it was short lived as the buyers are currently seen pushing price back up into daily supply.  The 4hr timeframe shows the sellers pushed price right into 4hr demand at 1314.49-1309.37 only to be quickly rejected by the buyers! Price will not likely break the aforementioned 4hr demand area before hitting 4hr supply above at 1342.46-1337.02 triggering our pending sell order set at 1336.59 in the process, we may not see this happen today due to the Americans being on vacation, so expect this early next week sometime.

  • Areas to watch for buy orders: P.O: 1268.91 (SL: 1264.30 TP: Dependent on approaching price action) 1282.82 (SL: 1275.12 TP: Dependent on approaching price action). P.A.C: There are currently no P.A confirmation buy orders seen in the current market environment.
  • Areas to watch for sell orders: P.O: 1336.59 SL: 1343.47 TP: Dependent on approaching price action)    P.A.C: There are currently no P.A confirmation sell orders seen in the current market environment.