Tuesday 1st June: Daily technical weekly outlook and review.

For the readers’ benefit:

Price action confirmation: simplymeans traders will likely wait for price action to confirm a level by consuming the opposing supply or demand area, then entering a trade on a possible retracement, this may occur on the lower timeframes also.

Pending orders: means pending orders are likely seen.

EUR/USD:

4hr TF.

A quick reminder of where we are at in the higher timeframes is always valuable, no matter which timeframe we decide to trade. The weekly chart shows price is deep within weekly demand at 1.34770-1.36771 where active buyers are beginning to show interest. The daily chart shows price is capped between daily supply at 1.37342-1.36890 and daily demand below at 1.34770-1.35557 with price currently trading nearer the supply area at the time of writing.

Like most Mondays, trading has been notably slow, a small rally has been seen up to around the area of minor resistance at 1.36666 where a small bearish reaction is currently being seen, as reported may happen in the last analysis.

If the buyers cannot push above the aforementioned resistance area, we will likely see a drop to the downside, hitting the round number 1.36000 first, if this level breaks, we will likely hit 4hr demand at 1.35036-1.35312. The reasoning behind this is there’s little stopping price (look to the left) on this timeframe from at least hitting the round number just mentioned. A break below this round number level will see sellers entering into a zone that has already seen the majority of demand/buyers consumed (spikes seen south consuming buyers as price rallies – marked with a trendline), meaning price could very easily drop to 4hr demand (levels above) if buyers around the round number (level above) get consumed.

Pending/P.A confirmation orders:

  • No pending buy orders (Green line) are seen in the current market environment.
  • P.A confirmation buy orders (Red line) are seen just above demand (1.35036-1.35312) at 1.35433. The reason behind us placing a P.A confirmation buy order here, rather than a pending buy order is because the aforementioned demand area appears weak as deep spikes have been seen recently (marked with two arrows), and also the circled tail/spike could have cleared out the majority of buy orders as it left on its advance.
  • Pending sell orders (Green line) seen at 1.36955 just below supply at 1.37235-1.37005 are set here since this level remains untouched, meaning unfilled orders are likely still set around this area.
  • P.A confirmation sell orders (Red line)are visible below the minor resistance 1.36666 at 1.36625, this level has proved valid in the past, but still needs to be confirmed due to a spike/wick (circled) seen above resistance, which may have consumed most of the sellers originally there. Do be on your guard with the sell orders above; the higher-timeframes are currently indicating higher prices may happen soon (Weekly demand: 1.34770-1.36771).

eurusdh4

Quick Recap:

Monday’s trading sessions are notoriously slow as most traders already know, with that in mind we have seen a small rally higher nearly filling our P.A confirmation sell order at 1.36625 missing it by a pip or two, which is located just under minor resistance at 1.36666. Considering we are in higher-timeframe demand (Weekly: 1.34770-1.36771 Daily: 1.34770-1.35557) price may see lower prices from where we are currently trading to at least the round number 1.36000, or if buyers are consumed here we may even hit the 4hr demand area below at 1.35036-1.35312 to collect the much-needed liquidity for the overall push higher.

  • Areas to watch for buy orders:P.O:No pending buy orders are seen in the current market environment.P.A.C: 1.35433 (SL: Dependent on where price ‘confirms’ the level TP: Dependent on where price ‘confirms’ the level).
  • Areas to watch for sell orders: P.O:1.36955 (SL: 1.37270 TP: [1] 1.36666 [2] 1.36000) P.A.C:1.36625 (SL: 1.36810 TP: Dependent on where price ‘confirms’ the level).

GBP/USD:

4hr TF.

Like the Euro charts above, very little price action has been seen on this pair. Price still remains trading at the base of weekly supply at 1.76290-1.70490, while daily supply at 1.70410-1.68880 appears weak as sellers have not really shown much interest in taking price lower at the moment, so a push higher is expected to be seen soon.

A rectangle has been placed on the 4hr chart (High: 1.70630 Low: 1.69522), not to represent a range as such; more to highlight what pro money may intend to do, as we are in important higher-timeframe supply areas as mentioned above.

A break above the high of the rectangle would see price trading deeper into weekly supply (levels above) which is the most likely scenario (explained above), conversely a break below the low would no doubt open more selling opportunities to us to short down to the round number 1.69000 at least.

Pending/P.A confirmation orders:

  • Pending buy orders (Green line) are seen at 1.67610 just above demand at 1.67378-1.67583. A pending order is valid here due to the momentum away from the demand area, indicating orders may be left unfilled here.
  • P.A confirmation buy orders (Red line) are seen just above the round number 1.68000 at 1.68038. A reaction may be likely here because of the way pro money used this level to rally prices higher with force, a quick change in direction like this likely indicates pro money activity, thus, all of their orders may have not been filled at that time. The reason a pending order is not used here is because pro money, on a regular basis perform deep stop hunts around big figure levels (1.68000), and these tails/wicks can be huge sometimes, hence the need to wait for confirmation.
  • P.A confirmation buy orders (Red line) are seen just above minor support (1.69431) at 1.69482. A reaction north is likely to be seen here, however we are currently seeing higher-timeframe supply being hit on the weekly timeframe at 1.76290-1.70490, hence the need for a confirmation buy order, rather than a pending buy order.
  • No pending sell orders (Green line) are seen in the current market environment.
  • No P.A confirmation sell orders (Red line) are seen in the current market environment.

gbpusdh4

Quick Recap:

Price remains tentative on this pair, buyers and sellers are currently battling it out around higher-timeframe supply areas (Weekly: 1.76290-1.70490 Daily: 1.70410-1.68880) with sellers currently not showing much interest. If the buyers manage to break above the high 1.70630 on the 4hr timeframe, we could possibly see much higher prices trading deeper into weekly supply (levels above).

  • Areas to watch for buy orders: P.O: 1.67610 (SL: 1.67345 TP: [1] 1.68000 [2] 1.69000 [likely to be changed, depending on price approach]). P.A.C:1.68038 (SL: Dependent on approaching price action after the level has been confirmed TP: Dependent on approaching price action after the level has been confirmed). 1.69482 (likely to be set at 1.69176 TP: Dependent on approaching price action after the level has been confirmed).
  • Areas to watch for sell orders: P.O: No pending sell orders seen in the current market environment.P.A.C: No P.A confirmation sell orders seen in the current market environment.

AUD/USD:

4hr TF.

The market opened at 0.94205 with sellers essentially taking control and pushing price south for most of yesterday (at the time of writing). The majority of the buyers around the round number 0.94000 have more than likely been consumed in the process. A retest of this level (now acting resistance) is currently being seen which may help push price down to 4hr demand at 0.93542-0.93670, where pro money may use this area to rally price higher.

Our reasoning behind expected higher prices is as follows:

  • The weekly timeframe is currently depicting bullish strength seeing the most recent weekly closed candle close above 13 previous weekly candles (within the mini consolidation area- check out the weekly chart on Monday’s analysis)
  • The daily timeframe shows price trading deep within a weak-looking daily supply area at 0.94468-0.93758 (shown on Monday’s analysis) where buyers seem to be too strong for the sellers at the moment.

Pending/P.A confirmation orders:

  • Pending buy orders (Green line) are seen just above demand (0.93542-0.93670) at 0.93689. A pending order was permitted to be set here due this demand area showing buying strength clearly created by pro money, meaning unfilled buy orders may still be lurking there.
  • P.A confirmation buy orders (Red line) are seen just above demand (0.93186-0.93345) at 0.93361. The reason a P.A confirmation buy order was placed here rather than a pending buy order, is simply because previous price action shows the buyers in and around the demand area (levels above) may have been consumed with those deep spikes/tails marked with arrows.
  • No pending sell orders (Green line) are seen in the current market environment.
  • No P.A confirmation sell orders (Red line) are seen in the current market environment.

audusdh4

Quick Recap:

Sellers have, at the time of writing taken control of the market consuming the round number below at 0.94000 in the process. A retest of this round number is currently being seen, this may just be what price needs for a final push down to 4hr demand at 0.93542-0.93670 (where we currently have a pending buy order set at 0.93689) for an overall rally to the upside as possibly indicated by the higher timeframes.

  • Areas to watch for buy orders: P.O:0.93689 (SL: 0.93510 TP: Dependent on approaching price action). P.A.C: 0.93361 (SL: Dependent on approaching price action after the level has been confirmed TP: Dependent on approaching price action after the level has been confirmed).
  • Areas to watch for sell orders: P.O:No pending sell orders seen in the current market environment. P.A.C:No P.A confirmation sell orders seen in the current market environment.

USD/JPY:

Weekly TF.

Buyers and sellers are currently battling it out around the weekly S/R flip level at 101.254.

usdjpyweekly

Daily TF.

On the daily timeframe, price is seen trading within daily demand (S/D flip area) at 101.523-100.787 which is currently capping price to the downside. Supply (minor resistance) above at 102.645 is presently capping price to the upside.

usdjpydaily

4hr TF.

It was reported in the last analysis that price may drop towards the round number 101.000 before any higher prices are seen.

The market opened lower at 101.380 with the sellers taking short-term control, before the buyers brought price back up to the D/S flip area at 101.427-101.546 where the sellers again are taking control once again.

What pro money may even do, instead of dropping to the round number below at 101.000 right away, is confuse the retail traders by pushing price up past the D/S flip area (levels above) thus allowing uninformed traders to jump on board the ‘beginning of a trend’. Pro money will then likely sell hard into all those buy orders at the most recent decision point (supply) at 101.709 to push price down to the round number (level above) for an overall rally higher in price as indicated by the higher timeframes at the moment.

Pending/P.A confirmation orders:

  • No pending buy orders (Green line) are seen in the current market environment.
  • P.A confirmation buy orders (red line) are seen just above the round number (101.000) at 101.027. The reason a P.A confirmation buy order was used here is because pro money on a regular basis perform deep spikes through these levels stopping countless traders out, hence the need to wait for confirmation.
  • Pending sell orders (Green line) are seen at 102.367. A pending order is valid here since this is the area where pro money made the ‘decision’ to break the low 102.113 and take prices lower into what was demand (101.427-101.660 seen on Monday 30th June analysis) at the time, meaning unfilled sell orders were likely left there in the process.
  • Pending sell orders (Green line) are seen at a decision point (102.103) at 102.084. Pending sell orders are viable here due to this being an important decision point level where pro money decided to break multiple lows and visit what was demand (101.427-101.660 seen on Monday 30th June analysis) at the time, thus giving the impression unfilled sell orders may be left there as price did change direction very quickly.
  • Pending sell orders (Green line) are seen just below the decision point (101.709) at 101.691. A pending order was permitted to be placed here since pro money clearly made a decision to consume the majority of the buyers around what was demand at 101.427-101.660 (seen on Monday 30th June analysis) at the time, meaning there were more than likely unfilled sell orders left behind in the process.
  • No P.A confirmation sell orders (Red line) are seen in the current market environment.

usdjpyh4

Quick Recap:

The weekly timeframe shows traders battling it out around weekly support at 101.254, while on the daily timeframe; price is currently trading within daily demand at 101.532-100.787. The 4hr timeframe currently shows sellers reacting off of supply at 101.427-101.546 with the possibility of two things happening:

  1. Price drops down to the round number 101.000 from where price is currently seen trading, at which point we currently have a P.A confirmation buy order set just above at 101.027. This may happen before higher prices are seen.
  2. Price will likely rally higher towards the decision point at 101.709 where we have a pending sell order set just below at 101.691, consequently dropping down to the round number 101.000 before higher prices are seen.
  • Areas to watch for buy orders: P.O: No pending buy orders are seen in the current market environment. P.A.C: 101.027 (SL: Dependent on approaching price action after the level has been confirmed TP: Dependent on approaching price action after the level has been confirmed).
  • Areas to watch for sell orders: P.O:102.367 (SL: 102.458 TP: Dependent on how price action approaches this area) 102.084 (SL: 102.184 TP: Dependent on how price approaches this area) 101.691 (SL: 101.759 TP: Dependent on how price approaches this area P.A.C:No P.A confirmation sell orders are seen in the current market environment.

EUR/GBP:

4hr TF.

A quick reminder of where we are in the higher timeframes: The weekly timeframe shows price currently trading within weekly demand at 0.79596-0.80299, while the daily timeframe still shows price trading within daily supply at 0.80348-0.80576 and daily demand below at 0.79282-0.79649. Considering just the higher timeframes for a moment, we will likely see the see the daily supply area just mentioned get consumed before the daily demand area (levels above) does, if the weekly demand area just mentioned above holds.

We still firmly believe price will likely drop to the 4hr demand area below at 0.79405-0.79552 before any overall rally higher in price is seen, as pro money will likely need liquidity for this to happen. Pro money have big orders to fill, they cannot just push the buy/sell button as most of us do. A drop in price will allow them to enter small buy orders into the market without divulging their true intentions. Once price hits an area like the 4hr demand area just mentioned, they will likely be very heavily long in the market, and with little sellers left (as the majority have been consumed by pro money’s small batches of buy orders), price is free to advance.

Pending/P.A confirmation orders:

  • A pending buy order (Green line) has been set at 0.79580 just above demand at 0.79405-0.79552. The rationale behind this is because buyers have likely consumed the majority of the sellers lurking around the round number 0.80000 and supply above at 0.80647-0.80583 likely clearing the path for higher prices. A small retracement to demand (levels above) will possibly be seen to collect more buyers for a rally higher, thus triggering our pending buy order.
  • No P.A confirmation buy orders (Red line) are seen in the current market environment.
  • No pending sell orders (Green line) are seen in the current market environment.
  • P.A confirmation sell orders (Red line) under the S/R flip level 0.81403 at 0.81393 is an area where a reaction is likely, however there were too many wicks north seen marked with arrows, indicating sellers are drying up, thus, the need to wait for more confirmation.
  • P.A confirmation sell orders (Red line) are seen just under supply (0.80869-0.80771) at 0.80752. Confirmation orders were used here because price is trading around a weekly demand area (0.79596-0.80299), which means price could easily consume this supply level as the higher timeframes usually overrule the lower timeframes.
  • The P.A confirmation sell order (Red line) set just below supply (0.80647-0.80583) at 0.80293 is now active. Considering the higher-timeframe location seen on the weekly chart (Weekly demand: 0.79596-0.80299) , the sellers will need to consume the majority of the buyers around the 4hr demand area below at 0.79405-0.79552 to confirm this zone; a pending sell order can then be set awaiting a possible retracement.

eurgbph4

Quick Recap:

The weekly timeframe currently shows active buyers within weekly demand at 0.79596-0.80299, while on the daily timeframe price remains capped between daily supply 0.80348-0.80576 and daily demand at 0.79282-0.79649. Our P.A confirmation sell order set at 0.80293 is currently still active awaiting price to consume buyers below at 4hr demand (0.79405-0.79552) before any pending sell order can be set. However, do be prepared for this not to happen as we still favor the 4hr demand area for possible buying opportunities at around the 0.79580 area which is where we have a pending buy order currently set at.

  • Areas to watch for buy orders: P.O: 0.79580 (SL: 0.79368 TP: [1] 0.80000 [2] 0.80583 [May change if any new developments in the market are seen]) P.A.C: No P.A confirmation buy orders are seen in the current market environment.
  • Areas to watch for sell orders: P.O: No pending sell orders are seen in the current market environment.P.A.C: 0.81393 (SL: Will be likely set at 0.81564 TP: Will be likely set at the round number 0.81000) 0.80752 (SL: likely to be set at 0.80900 TP: Dependent on where price ‘confirms’ the level) 0.80293 (Active-awaiting confirmation) (SL: likely to be set at 0.80648 TP: Dependent on where price ‘confirms’ the level).

USD/CAD:

Weekly TF.

Price is still seen deep within weekly demand at 1.05609-1.07372 where buyers are beginning to show interest.

usdcadweekly

Daily TF.

Deep within the weekly demand area mentioned above sits daily demand at 1.05883-1.06779, which is where a bullish reaction is currently being seen.

usdcaddaily

4hr TF.

The buyers on the 4hr timeframe took almost immediate control after the market opened at 1.06642. It was a shame, we expected price to drop a little lower into our decision point (demand) at 1.06484 before rallying higher. All is not lost though; we may get a second chance.

Take a look at the circled area (1.06639); this could very well be a 4hr dummy demand area. Pro money may have created this demand area to be faked later on. A fakeout of this area would see price dropping to our decision point mentioned above. What is the point in pro money doing this though? Well, as most of us are aware, traders with big accounts need liquidity to trade, a demand area such as the one circled will no doubt attract a lot of buyers on the lower timeframes, and where will retail traders likely place their stops? Just below the circled-area zone. So, if pro money push price beyond this area, they collect the stops which are effectively sell orders now, allowing pro money to buy into all these sells for an overall rally higher in price as don’t forget we are deep within higher-timeframe demand – see above). Price is currently seen reacting around the round number 1.07000 area which may just be enough to push price down to our decision point level mentioned above.

Pending/P.A confirmation orders:

  • Pending buy orders (Green line) are seen just above the decision point level (1.06484) at 1.06527. A pending order is valid here due to price being contained within higher-timeframe demand (Weekly: 1.05609-1.07372 Daily: 1.05883-1.06779) coupled with the fact that this was the last decision made by pro money (in the past) to rally price to new highs (take a look at historical prices to see).
  • No P.A confirmation buy orders (Red line) are seen in the current market environment.
  • Pending sell orders (Green line) are seen within the decision point supply area (1.08251-1.08164) at 1.08226. Pending orders are valid here due this likely being the work of pro money, the momentum out of the zone is only caused by traders with big accounts, and when pro money move the market, all of their orders here were unlikely to have been filled, hence a pending order being a logical choice here.
  • Pending sell orders (Green line) are seen around the decision point level (1.07481) at 1.07461. A pending sell order is valid here due to this being the last ‘obvious’ decision made by pro money that consumed buyers around the S/R flip level at 1.07266, unfilled sell orders may have been left here in the process. However, we still have to remain aware, as we’re currently seeing price trading in higher-timeframe demand (Weekly: 1.05609-1.07372 Daily: 1.05883-1.06779), so we would need to exit this position at the first sign of trouble if the sell order does indeed get filled.
  • No P.A confirmation sell orders (Red line) are seen in the current market environment.

usdcadh4

Quick Recap:

The weekly timeframe shows buyers are beginning to show interest within weekly demand at 1.05609-1.07372, while on the daily timeframe we can see in more detail where exactly the buyers are beginning to show interest (daily demand: 1.05883-1.06779). Our pending buy order placed just above the decision point level(1.06484) at 1.06526 has yet to be filled, price will likely react bearishly off of the round number 1.07000, and then drop back down for a second retest, only this time a little deeper, thus filling our pending buy order (level above) in the process.

  • Areas to watch for buy orders: P.O: 1.06526 (SL: 1.06319 TP: Dependent on approaching price action). P.A.C: There are no P.A confirmation buy orders seen within the current market environment.
  • Areas to watch for sell orders: P.O:1.08226 (SL: 1.08357 TP: Dependent on approaching price action) 1.07461 (SL: 1.07550 TP: Dependent on how price approaches this level). P.A.C: There are no P.A confirmation sell orders seen within the current market environment.

USD/CHF:

4hr TF.

Chart one below shows 4hr demand at 0.88973-0.89168 and the round number 0.89000 has been consumed. As reported yesterday, if price breaks the aforementioned 4hr demand area, price will likely visit oncoming 4hr demand at 0.88656-0.88816 which is yet to happen as price is currently busy retesting the demand area/round number level just broken.

Chart 1:

usdchfh4 chart 1

Chart two below shows how price is now tightly confined within 4hr supply (D/S flip area) at 0.88973-0.89168 and 4hr demand below at 0.88656-0.88816. A break lower of this 4hr demand area could very well see price testing the daily timeframe S/R flip level at 0.88501.

Pending/P.A confirmation orders:

  • No pending buy orders (Green line) are seen in the current market environment.
  • P.A confirmation buy orders (Red line) are seen just above the daily S/R flip level (0.88501) at 0.88533. This level needs to see some confirming price action before any entry is placed in the market, due to their being no logical area for a stop loss order.
  • P.A confirmation buy orders (Red line) are seen just above demand (0.88656-0.88816) at 0.88841. The reason a P.A confirmation buy order was set here rather than a pending buy order is because this demand area has already seen two touches (look to the far left), meaning some or all of the big buy orders have already been consumed, hence the need for a confirmation buy order.
  • The P.A confirmation buy order (Red line) set within demand (0.88973-0.89168) at 0.89029, just above the round number 0.89000 has been cancelled. Price dropped too far from the entry level.
  • The pending sell order (Green line) visible at the base of supply (0.90381-0.90033) just above the round number 0.90000 at 0.90063 still remains active. The first target has been hit at 0.89168, we have closed most of our final position now, allowing a very small position to run, giving price room to move, and hopefully hit our final target at the daily S/R flip level (0.88501).
  • No P.A confirmation sell orders (Red line) are seen in the current market environment.

Chart 2:

usdchfh4 chart 2

 

Quick Recap:

The 4hr timeframe shows sellers almost immediately took control when the market opened, breaking/consuming 4hr demand (seen on chart one) at 0.88973-0.89168 and cancelling out our P.A confirmation buy order seen at 0.89029. Price will likely test 4hr demand below at 0.88656-0.88816 sometime today, triggering our P.A confirmation buy order at 0.88841 in the process. Price now remains tightly capped between the D/S flip supply area seen at 0.88973-0.89168 and demand below at 0.88656-0.88816.

  • Areas to watch for buy orders: P.O: There are no pending buy orders seen in the current market environment. P.A.C: 0.88533 (SL: Dependent on approaching price action after the level has been confirmed TP: Dependent on approaching price action after the level has been confirmed) 0.88841 (SL: likely to be set at 0.88618 TP: Dependent on approaching price action after the level has been confirmed).
  • Areas to watch for sell orders: P.O: (Active – 1st target hit)0.90063 (SL: 0.90412 TP: [1] 0.89168 [2] 0.88501) P.A.C: There are currently no P.A confirmation sell orders seen in the current market environment).

XAU/USD (GOLD)

Daily TF.

A quick reminder of where we are currently trading at on the daily timeframe sees a daily supply area at 1331.13-1318.24 appearing to show weakness, with both buyers and sellers displaying indecisive behavior.

xauusddaily

4hr TF.

Technically, not changed much since the last analysis on this pair, other than buyers are now currently being seen trading out of 4hr demand (S/D flip area) at 1314.49-1309.37.

Much of the last reported analysis still holds true and is really worth remembering:

The 4hr timeframe shows how much of a mess price action is on the daily timeframe when magnified. Price was seen trading all last week in between the decision point (supply) area at 1331.13-1327.42 and demand (S/D flip area) at 1314.49-1309.37.

As price is currently trading in and around daily supply (levels above) we are still favoring lower prices from here. A tail marked with an arrow likely consumed more of the buyers around the 4hr S/D flip area (levels above), thus making a drop lower more possible.

Pending/P.A confirmation orders:

  • Pending buy orders (Green line) are seen within demand (S/D flip area… 1284.88-1280.74) at 1282.82. We have set a pending buy order here due to the fact there was a decision made here (marked by the black horizontal level, when decisions are made by pro money, they may be unfilled buy orders left there, hence the fact we have set our pending order there.
  • Pending buy orders (Green line) are seen just above demand (1258.57-1265.27) at 1268.91. We are permitted to set a pending buy order here as the buyers have consumed sellers within (which was at the time of writing) supply at 1293.47-1285.52, as per the previous confirmation buy order originally set at 1266.00 (See Thursday 19th June for details).
  • No P.A confirmation buy orders (Red line) are seen in the current market environment.
  • Pending sell orders (Green line) are seen just below the supply/decision point (1331.13-1327.42) at 1325.90. A pending sell order was set here because this area is deep within daily supply (1331.13-1318.24) and the momentum away from the area indicates unfilled orders may well be left there.
  • No P.A confirmation sell orders (Red line) are seen in the current market environment.

xauusdh4

Quick Recap:

Both buyers and sellers on the daily timeframe are showing indecisive behavior with no positive direction yet to be seen. The 4hr timeframe shows price has, and still is trading within supply above at 1331.13-1327.42 and demand below at 1314.49-1309.37 with a break either side not yet to be seen. We still favor a break lower as it’s hard to ignore the fact that we are trading in and around higher-timeframe daily supply at 1331.13-1318.24.

  • Areas to watch for buy orders: P.O:1268.91 (SL: 1264.30 TP: Dependent on approaching price action)1282.82 (SL: 1275.12 TP: Dependent on approaching price action). P.A.C: There are currently no P.A confirmation buy orders seen in the current market environment.
  • Areas to watch for sell orders: P.O: 1325.90 (SL: 1332.71 TP: Dependent on approaching price action).P.A.C: There are currently no P.A confirmation sell orders seen in the current market environment.