Overnight Developments

NZ Treasury: Terms of Trade may have peaked / Dairy prices fallen faster than expected

NZ: ANZ Business Confidence 42.8 from 53.5 prior, Activity Outlook 45.8 from 51.0 prior

NZ May Building Permits fall 4.6% m/m vs 1.5% prior

Australian HIA New Home Sales -4.3% m/m vs 2.9% prior

Australia: TD Sec Inflation for May is flat vs 0.3% prior

Australian Private Sector Credit 0.4% m/m as expected, 4.7% y/y also as expected

Japanese Industrial Production 0.5% m/m

Schaeuble: UK exit from EU is unimaginable, Germany to do everything in its power to keep the UK in the EU

Japan’s Abe: Japan is pushing ahead ‘forward looking’ GPIF changes / Impact of April tax hike on consumption is temporary


  •  Nikkei +0,27%
  • Hang Seng +0,26%
  • Asx -0,41%
  • Shanghai Composite +0,67%
  • Gold 1317,60 -0,18%
  • Silver 20,947 -0,88%
  • Crude 105,45 -0,28%
  • US 10YR 2.532 +0,00%

COT Update

– Amongst the comm-dolls, there has been an inflow of capital last week with more focus on Cad.

– Amongst European FX, interest has been steady last week in Euro shorts and Gbp longs.

– Amongst Safe-Haven FX, there has been a relevant increase in Chf shorts last week.

– Speculative interest is highest in Gbp overall and lowest in Eur overall.

– Most crowded trades: Gbp(FX), Crude (Commodities).

– Money flows during the past week were focused on Chf shorts.

 Data on the Docket

Reminder: Canada Day is tomorrow July 1st, and US Independence Day is Friday July 4th so NFP will be published on Thursday and not Friday – the same day as the ECB decision. Should be interesting.

Monday: GER Retail Sales, EU CPI, CAD Gdp, US Chicago PMI + Pending Home Sales (bullish expectations)

Tuesday: Canada Day, AU AIG Manuf. Index, JPN Tankan report, CNY Manuf. PMI + HSBC Manuf. PMI, RBA Decision, GER Unemployment + Markit Manuf. PMI (bullish espectations), EU Markit Manuf. PMI (bullish expectations), UK Markit Manuf. PMI (bullish expectations), US Markit Manuf. PMI + ISM Manuf. Pmi + Construction Spending

Wednesday: AUD Trade Balance, EU PPI (bearish expectations), US ADP + Factory Orders

Thursday: AUD AiG Services Index + Retail Sales, CNY Non-Manuf. PMI, GER Markit Services + Composite PMI, EU Markit Services + Composite PMI, UK Official Reserves Change + Markit Services + Composite PMI, EUR Retail Sales + ECB Decision, CAD International Merchandise Trade (bearish expectations), US Trade Balance + NFP + Avg. Hourly Earnings + ISM Non-Manuf.

Friday: US Independence Day, GER Factory Orders

FX Update

AudUsd opened the week at 9424, trading was mainly flow driven, Japanese accounts sold AudJpy taking the Aussie to the lows and AudNzd buying after the weak NZ data and Treasury comments lifted Aussie back to around 9420. Offers present around 9435 with stops in the 9440s and more offers at 9450. Bids commence at 9405 with stops at 9390 and more bids just below, at 9375.

NzdUsd eased from 8780 to 8737, a mixture of weak local data and NZ Treasury’s warning that Terms of Trade may have peaked, weighed heavily. There are a mix of offers and a Barrier Option at 8800, with stops seen at 8805 and offers at 8835. Stops are also at 8750, with large bids at 8730 and stops at 8725.

UsdJpy was pressured lower from the get-go, Japanese exporters were out in force, driving the pair down to 101.26 from 101.49, taking out the small 101.30 stops. There are bids seen in the 101.10s and large stops around 100.80. Topside, we’ve got stops at 101.45 with offers in 101.50 and stops at 102.80.

EurUsd sidelined for the session, traders awaiting the slew of economic data today, in particular euro zone CPI, the range seen in Asia was a miserly 1.3641 to 1.3648. Some buy stops sitting just over 1.3650, with small offers at 1.3670. Bids seen around 1.3600 with stops just below the round number. Bids seen also 1.3585 with stops at 1.3570/80.

GbpUsd is also flat, having been in the 1.7020/7038 range. There’s a DNT at 1.7100, with stops/offers at 1.7050/55 and more at 1.7060/70. Stops start at 1.6995 with bids at 1.6980 and more stops at 1.6970.

UsdCad is gradually retracing, from 1.0659 to 1.0675. Stops are present at 1.0695, with offers at 1.0715 and stops at 1.0725. Bids are at 1.0650 with stops just below at 1.0645 and larger bids at 1.0600.

Data on Tap today




Good Luck today.