Global Markets:

  • Japan (JPY) Retail Sales (y/y): -0.4%, Expected: -1.8%, Previous: -4.4%
  • Japan (JPY) Tokyo CPI (y/y): 3.0%, Previous: 3.1%
  • Japan (JPY) Unemployment Rate: 3.5%, Expected: 3.6%, Previous: 3.6%
  • United Kingdom (GBP) Gfk Consumer Confidence (JUN): 1, Expected: 2, Previous: 0
  • New Zealand (NZD) Trade Balance: 285M, Expected: 250M, Previous: 534M
  • Moodys: Abe’s revitalization strategy is credit positive, also will take time for tax reductions to feed through
  • RBNZ Governor: Wheeler claims economy growing quicker than potential output, talks about withdrawing stimulus by increasing interest rates
  • Asia stock markets: Nikkei down 1.20 %, Shanghai Composite and ASX both dropped 0.40 %, Hang Seng declined 0.30 %
  • Commodities: Gold at $1322, Silver at $21.20, Crude Oil at $105.79
  • Bonds: US 10 year yield at 2.518


FX Update:

  • AUD – Aussie strengthened overnight, reaching a high of 0.9440 amid on-going demand from leveraged funds. While the 0.9450 barrier continues to cap the topside for now, the recent bounce off 0.9350 has confirmed that the current path of least resistance is up. We should see a 0.95 test fairly soon. Cross flows: Some trailing stops got triggered in AUD/NZD, but all quiet otherwise.
  • CAD – The CAD short squeeze continues and USD/CAD broke beneath the 1.07 barrier in yesterday’s NY session. Look for a renewed basing effort at the 1.0650/60 support area. A break lower would pave the way for a test of the medium-term base neckline at 1.0600/05.
  • JPY – Overnight, exporters were early sellers of USD/JPY and specs joined them later with some covering their weak long positions ahead of the weekend. Bids said to be very decent ahead of the 101.00 level; next key tech level is 100.75 (current yearly low).
  • NZD – NZD/USD has reached a fresh yearly high overnight on the back of better than expected trade data. The trade balance for past month came in at NZ$285M vs NZ$250M expected with both exports and imports increasing. The YTD balance stands at NZ$1373M and is showing continued improvement, though there were slight downside revisions to the prior month’s data. Intraday support at 0.8755 and then 0.8720; key resistance at 0.8840. 0.88 barrier intact.


Upcoming Events:

  • 06:45 GMT – French GDP (0.0 % QoQ)
  • 08:30 GMT – UK GDP (0.8 % QoQ, 3.1 % YoY)
  • 12:00 GMT – German CPI (0.2 % MoM, 1.0 % YoY)
  • 13:55 GMT – US UoM Consumer Sentiment (82.2)