Global Markets:

  • China (CNY) House Price Index (MAY): 5.6%, Previous: 6.7%
  • Australia (AUD) MI Leading Index (m/m): 0.1%, Previous: -0.5%
  • Australia (AUD) CB Leading Indicator (APR): -0.1%, Previous: 0%
  • Japan (JPY) Adjusted Trade Balance: -0.86T, Expected: -1.01T, Previous: -0.84T
  • Japan (JPY) Trade Balance: -909B, Expected: -1,173B, Previous: -809B
  • New Zealand (NZD) Current Account: 1.40B, Expected: 1.30B, Previous: -1.43B
  • BOJ minutes: Easing had been exerting intended effects
  • One BOJ board member: Appropriate to restrict QE timeframe to about 2 years
  • Asia stock markets: Nikkei up 0.80 %, Shanghai Composite lost 0.50 %, Hang Seng unchanged on the day, ASX down 0.20 %
  • Commodities: Gold at $1268, Silver at $19.68, Crude Oil at $105.89
  • Bonds: US 10 year yield at 2.65


FX Update:

  • AUD – AUD/USD attracted selling from leveraged names and real money funds after more dovish than expected RBA minutes and the pair extended it’s decline to 0.9330. There it hit into bids from macro funds, which led to a small bounce. Dealers think that the large stops through 0.9310/15 might get targeted soon, but there will be good buying interest towards 0.9280. To the topside, offers building at 0.9380.
  • CAD – Little has changed in USD/CAD with offers still reported at 1.0880 and demand from local names & option players from 1.0820 down to 1.08. The FOMC meeting tonight might get the pair finally moving out of it’s recent range.
  • CHF – Another breakout above 0.90 post-CPI data, but there was lack of momentum, once again. As long as EUR/USD stays above 1.35, the pair will continue to struggle with that 0.90 level.
  • EUR – The 1.3580 resistance level held as leveraged names are still happy to sell into any rally. It feels like the s/t market is a bit too short EUR, so if that 1.35 level continues to be well protected, we could see the squeeze extend to 1.3660.
  • JPY – Speculators have rushed again into USD/JPY longs as the pair broke above 102.10, but they have runned into supply from Japanese names at 102.20. Offers are solid up to 102.30 and the topside should be limited ahead of the FOMC meeting. Important resistance levels resting between 102.50 and 102.70 and plenty of stops there as well. To the downside, expect strong bids around the 101.80 level.


Upcoming Events:

  • 08:30 GMT – Bank of England Meeting Minutes
  • 12:30 GMT – Canadian Wholesale Sales (1.0 % MoM)
  • 12:30 GMT – US Current Account (-96.4B)
  • 18:00 GMT – Fed Interest Rate Decision (0.25 %)
  • 18:00 GMT – FOMC Statement
  • 18:30 GMT – Fed Chair Yellen speaks
  • 22:45 GMT – New Zealand GDP (1.2 % QoQ)