Global Markets:

  • China Trade Balance (MAY): 3$5.9B, Expected: $22.60B, Previous: $18.46B
  • Chinese Premier Li: China Economic growth within reasonable range
  • Chinese Premier Li: Urges government to resolve problems of financing, and exports
  • Japan GDP (y/y): 6.7%, Expected: 5.6%, Previous: 5.9%
  • Japan GDP (q/q): 1.6 %, Expected: 1.4%, Previous: 1.5%
  • Japan Adjusted Current Account: 0.13T, Expected: 0.23T, Previous: -0.78T
  • Japan Prime Minister Abe: Said at G7 Japan to cut corporate tax rate next FY
  • Japan Chief Cabinet Secretary Suga: Increase in capital Investment helping improve economy, corporate earnings and sentiment improving
  • Asian stock markets: Nikkei and Shanghai Composite are up 0.40 %, Hang Seng gained 0.70 %, ASX rose 0.50 %
  • Commodities: Gold at $1252, Silver at $19.02, Crude Oil at $102.81
  • Bonds: US 10 year yield at 2.61

 

COT Positioning Report:

  • EUR short contracts rose to 33,025 vs 16,633 shorts in the previous week, fourth straight increase and most bearish since July 2013
  • JPY shorts rose to 74,218 contracts vs 59,036 shorts in the previous week, most bearish since April 8
  • AUD longs rose to 21,527 vs 15,848 in the previous week, most bullish since April 2013
  • CAD shorts rose to 22,731 contracts vs 21,810 in the previous week, most bearish since May 20
  • CHF shorts fell to 2,012 contracts vs 3,872 contracts, with previous week being 1st net short reading since Feb.
  • GBP long contracts dipped to 34,974 vs 35,304 longs in the previous week

 

The Week Ahead:

On Tuesday, China CPI figures will be released with the year-on-year headline expected to come in at 2.4 %. Later in the day we will have the UK Industrial Production and Manufacturing Production figures.

Wednesday will be bit more busy with UK employment data. The unemployment rate is expected to drop to 6.7 % with a Claimant Count Change at -25k. Further, the Reserve Bank of New Zealand will decide on interest rates and the market is forecasting a 25bps hike to 3.25 %. The rate decision will be followed by a statement from the bank and a press conference by Governor Wheeler.

Thursday will bring Australian employment data and forecasts are for a 10k increase in employment change and a higher unemployment rate at 5.9 %. In the EU session, French will report CPI figures and the ECB Monthly Report will be published. The US will release Retail Sales numbers and Initial Jobless Claims. Bank of Canada Governor Poloz will be speaking later that day.

Chinese Industrial Production, German CPI and uS PPI data will be the main events on Friday. The Bank of Japan will release it’s monetary policy statement.

Upcoming Events:

  • 12:15 GMT – Canadian Housing Starts (185k)
  • 13:10 GMT – FOMC Member Bullard speaks
  • 16:00 GMT – RBA Governor Stevens speaks