Price is still trading within weekly demand at 1.34770 – 1.36771, so higher prices are naturally expected, but how far do the sellers take price before we see any sign that buyers are interested? The Daily chart shows demand below at 1.34770 – 1.35557, this could be a possible area sellers will trade price to before buyers take over, which is at the time of writing, about 50 points below where price is currently trading at now.
Price still remains trading between supply at 1.36687 – 1.36542 and demand at 1.35623 – 1.35984 on the 4hr timeframe. The NFP announcement due later today is well known for its volatile price swings; therefore, with this additional strength, a positive break is likely to be seen.
Pro money will likely sell, and sell hard, hammering price deep into 4hr demand at 1.35623 – 1.35984 possibly even spiking below, as we know from the analysis above, higher-timeframe demand is just below (levels above).
- The buy order set yesterday at 1.35774 has been changed because of the NFP announcement, as the last thing we want happening is for price to spike deep into our buy order giving us huge drawdown. A new buy order has been set lower at 1.35677 (marked with a red line) to be placed a few pips above the daily demand (levels above).
- Sell orders (marked with red lines) remain mostly unchanged from yesterday’s analysis. The first sell order, the lowest of the two, is seen at 1.36542 around the base of supply (1.36687 – 1.36542). If a break above this supply area materializes, this could force price to test supply at 1.37235 –1.37005 with sell orders seen below the round number 1.37000 at 1.36968. However, assuming that these orders actually get filled, do not hesitate to exit your sell positions at the first sign of trouble as today will show no mercy around NFP time.
- Areas to watch for buy orders: 1.35677 (SL: 1.35460 TP:  1.36432  1.36968  1.37419).
- Areas to watch for sell orders: 1.36542 (SL: 1.36741 TP: 1.36000). Distant orders: 1.36968 (SL: 1.37289 TP: Dependent on future price approach).
- Most likely scenario: Price will likely spike south into demand at 1.35623 – 1.35984, before seeing the buyers take control, pushing prices north to at least the supply area at 1.36687 – 1.36542.
The pound, at the time of writing has produced a beautiful looking pin bar to supply at 1.68158 – 1.67828 which is capping price to the upside, with demand seen below at the round number 1.67000 capping price to the downside.
- The buy orders seen yesterday (marked with red lines) are to be left unchanged, the highest one of the two at 1.66906 below the round number 1.67000 along with an order seen around the daily S/R flip level (1.66631) at 1.66680.
- The sell order (marked with red line) at 1.67828 has been filled, and at the time of writing is in a nice profit which will likely hit its target soon. If a break is seen above this supply area at 1.68158 – 1.67828, this could force price to test the supply area at 1.68822 – 1.68708. Sell orders could then be set at 1.68708.
- Areas to watch for buy orders: 1.66906 (SL: 1.66534 TP:  1.67828  1.68708). Distant orders: 1.66680 (SL: 1.66534 TP: Dependent on future price approach).
- Areas to watch for sell orders: (Active) 1.67828 (SL: 1.68216 TP: 1.67000). Distant orders: 1.68708 (SL: 1.68860 TP: Will be decided on future price approach).
- Most likely scenario: Price will likely see a drop towards the round number 1.67000 due to the higher-timeframe indicating a sell off. Be prepared for price to possibly break the round number, trading deeper into the daily S/R flip area at 1.66631 for any type of bullish reaction to be seen.
A quick reminder of what the higher timeframe is telling us. Price remains capped within a medium-term consolidation between supply at 0.94468 – 0.93758 and demand below at 0.92054 – 0.92633. The circled wick indicates most of the sellers may have been consumed there, as a result a push higher is likely possible, but also remembering that the weekly time frame is trading around resistance at 0.93718, so a fakeout north collecting liquidity may happen to bring prices south as this would agree with the higher-timeframe analysis.
The 4hr timeframe still remains capped with supply being seen above at 0.93345 – 0.93186 and demand below at 0.92037 – 0.92203. A second attempt has been seen at the round number 0.93000 where a bearish reaction is occurring.
- Exactly the same as yesterday’s analysis, buy orders (marked with red lines) are still seen at 0.92203 around the demand area below (0.92037 – 0.92203). Due to the amount of touches this demand area has seen over the recent weeks, pro money may decide to push price lower on its next visit, testing the lower limits of the demand area, so buy orders are may also be lurking just above the round number 0.92000 at 0.92037.
- The sell order (marked with a red line) set just above the round number 0.93000 at 0.93027 nearly filled, missing the entry level by about 2-3 pips, we may still see this order filled, as pro money may want more stops sitting just above the round number (levels above). Adding to this, take a look at the small trendline placed on the chart, this may be pro money consuming demand whilst rallying price, clearing the path south for an easy sell off. Sell orders (marked with red lines) set at 0.93186 around the supply area above (0.93345-0.93186) remain unchanged.
- Areas to watch for buy orders: 0.92203 (SL: 0.91942 TP:  0.93000  0.93186) 0.92037 (SL: 0.91942 TP:  0.93000  0.93186).
- Areas to watch for sell orders: 0.93027 (SL: 0.93381 TP 0.92203) 0.93186 (SL: 0.93381 TP:  0.93000  Dependent on the way price action approaches this area but will likely be at 0.92203.
- Most likely scenario: With lower prices expected as per higher-timeframe analysis, price will likely spike higher today, above the round number 0.93000 up to supply at 0.93345 – 0.93186 for an overall bigger move south, but also remembering high volatility is expected today with the NFP due out, so keep a close eye on where your pending orders are set, taking into consideration correct stop-loss placements etc…
Price made a positive close above resistance (102.925) on the daily timeframe (shown below), opening up the possibility of higher prices up until supply at 104.114 – 103.812, coinciding with the weekly timeframe which is seen at support (101.254).
The 4hr timeframe shows price is seeing support around demand at 102.482 – 102.271 capping price to the downside. Supply at 103.055 – 102.742 appears to be struggling at the moment with no major selling happening yet
- Buy orders remain the same (marked with red lines) at 102.111 and 102.023, incorporated in and around demand at 101.936 – 102.089. Both the daily and the weekly timeframes are showing signs that more buying is to come, however, a retracement (selling) may still happen, with the NFP due out today, price may spike through demand at 102.482 – 102.271 to demand below at 101.936 – 102.089 possibly filling both pending buy orders.
- The sell order (marked with a red line) at 102.669 is still active with price being held up at immediate demand below at 102.482 – 102.271. This sell order will remain active until either the target below is hit at 102.111 (target 2 has been cancelled), or the stop loss order is hit. If a break above this supply area is seen, price will more than likely rally to supply at 104.129 – 103.816 with a new sell order (marked with a red line) set just below at 103.783.
- Areas to watch for buy orders: 102.111 (SL: 101.899 TP: [At the time of writing] 102.669) 102.023 (SL: 101.899 TP: [At the time of writing] 102.669).
- Areas to watch for sell orders (Active) 102.669 (SL: 103.088 TP: [At the time of writing] 102.111) 103.783 (SL: 104.159 TP: Dependent on how price approaches the supply area).
- Most likely scenario: With NFP volatility expected today, price will likely spike through demand at 102.482 – 102.271 to demand below at 101.936 – 102.089 possibly filling both pending buy orders before rallying higher.
Weekly demand at 0.80848 – 0.81668 has, at the time of writing seen a spike south, this may well be a fakeout though, let’s take look down lower for more information.
How can we tell this may be a fakeout? Look on the daily chart below, notice that price came within 5-7 pips of the demand area at 0.80348 – 0.80576 which could be a perfect place for pro money to facilitate a fakeout such as this this.
Price has just smashed right through demand at 0.81053 – 0.81171 along with the round number 0.81000 right into demand seen at 0.80777 – 0.80612 which has remained a fresh zone since the year 2012 as shown on chart 1 below marked with an arrow.
- The buy order at 0.80988 (marked with a red line) set yesterday has been well and truly stopped out! New buy orders are seen around demand (0.80777 – 0.80612) at 0.80737.
- What a fantastic trade that would have been if the sell order at 0.81512 had filled! Sell orders (marked with red lines) remain the same as yesterday’s analysis, the lower of the two being seen around supply (0.81580 – 0.81512) at 0.81512, and the next order being seen around the highest of the three stacked supply areas (0.81823 – 0.81766) at 0.81746.
- Areas to watch for buy orders: 0.80737 (SL: 0.80574 TP:  0.81054  0.81512).
- Areas to watch for sell orders: 0.81512 (SL: 0.81605 TP: 0.81171). Distant orders: 0.81746 (SL: 0.81845 TP: Will be decided depending on approaching price action)
- Most likely scenario: Pro money will likely spike back down to demand at 0.80777 – 0.80612 to pick up any unfilled orders left there before rallying higher.
The daily timeframe below is not showing any bearish signs in supply at 1.10039 – 1.09356.
The price action resembles what the daily timeframe is telling us, only. We’re seeing it in greater detail. Price has been spiking north and south, possibly stopping millions of traders out both ways around the S/R flip level 1.09408.
- Buy orders (marked with red lines) seen below at 1.08330 have been cancelled for now since current price is quite a distance from this area. There are still two pending orders set around demand (1.08907 – 1.09022) at 1.09035 and 1.08954 that may be filled sometime later today.
- The active sell order (marked with a red line) around the S/R flip level 0.09408 has been stopped out nearly to the pip! Sell orders are seen above, in and around supply at 1.10039 – 1.09875, the nearest being seen just under supply at 1.09850, the next seen just above the round number (1.10000) at 1.10020.
- Areas to watch for buy orders: 1.09035 (SL: 1.08886 TP: 1.09408)1.08954 (SL: 1.08886 TP: 1.09408).
- Areas to watch for sell orders: 1.09850 (SL: 1.10063 TP: 1.09408) 1.10020 (SL: 1.10063 TP: 1.09408).
- Most likely scenario: Due to recent price action on the higher timeframes, price will likely rally higher up to supply at 1.10039 – 1.09875, meaning price will be trading at the extreme upper edge of daily supply at 1.10039 – 1.09356 before we see any type drop in price.
The daily chart below shows how deep price has spiked within daily supply at 0.90381 – 0.89392.
The circled tail mentioned in Wednesday’s analysis reported that this was demand (0.89375 – 0.89459) consumption, allowing price to trade lower due to the lack of buyers left around this area. Price has spiked the round number 0.90000 and the supply area above at 0.90381 – 0.90033 whilst the sellers also made an attempt to touch demand at 0, 88973 – 0.89168 missing it by only a few pips.
- The buy order (marked with a red line) seen below at 0.89168 around the base of demand (0.88973 – 0.89168 nearly got filled yesterday, the order will be left in place as price spiking away from demand like this normally indicates strong demand, so we may yet see a second visit.
- The sell order at the round number 0.90000 has been filled, with price just missing its target by about 7 pips or so. The order will remain active until the target is hit, however, it would be wise for anyone trading this move to at least lock in some profit now just to be on the safe side.
- Areas to watch for buy orders: 0.89168 (SL: 0.88942 TP: (Overall) 0.90000, but subject to change depending on price action).
- Areas to watch for sell orders: (Active) 0.90000 (SL: 0.90398 TP: 0.89168).
- Most likely scenario: Pro money will likely continue to sell until price at least reaches demand at 0.88973 – 0.89168, where a bullish reaction may be seen.
The daily timeframe is at last showing some action with price beginning to trade north out of demand at 1238.51 – 1254.97.
The 4hr chart still remains capped between supply at 1268.03 – 1260.87 and demand at 1231.56 – 1237.57 with an attempt to break either area yet to be seen. Chart 1 (below) is a quick reminder of what the price action is like to the left marked with a trend line. This area shows little active demand on this timeframe because buyers have likely already been consumed with all those tails down to small demand pockets before price took off north.
- The buy order (marked with a red line) at 1237.57 still remains unchanged. Patience is definitely required at the moment if considering trading this pair on this timeframe.
- The sell order (marked with a red line) remains the same being seen around supply (1268.03 – 1260.87) at 1260.87.
Chart 2 (below) shows where price is currently trading between supply and demand (levels above)
- Areas to watch for buy orders: 1237.57 (SL: 1230.48 TP: 1260.87).
- Areas to watch for sell orders: 1260.87 (SL: 1268.99 TP: 1237.57).
- Most likely scenario: Price is currently trading in daily demand at 1238.51 – 1254.97, so higher prices are naturally expected, the 4hr supply area at 1268.03 – 1260.87 will likely see some action today as the NFP announcement will likely give this pair the added strength it requires.