The chart levels and zones will be color coded for the benefit of readers as follows:
Weekly TF = Black. Daily TF = Gold. 4hr TF = Brown
Here on the daily timeframe, we can see price action still remains relatively bearish. The support 1.36432 has well and truly been cleared out of all buyers, becoming resistance. Price is currently capped between the S/R flip level just mentioned, and the daily demand area below at 1.34770 – 1.35557, where price is very likely to visit next.
Price did do what was reported in the last analysis, only with not as much energy as expected. The minor demand area marked with a check sign at 1.36114 – 1.36186 was faked south into demand at 1.35623 – 1.35984 with the round number 1.36000 just above.
At the time of writing, not much bullish action has been seen, in fact price was stopped by a very minor supply area at 1.36386 – 1.36265, and now remains capped between the supply area just mentioned and 4hr demand at 1.35623 – 1.35984.
- Areas to watch for buy orders: 1.35623 – 1.35984.
- Areas to watch for sell orders: 1.36386 – 1.36265.
- Most likely scenario: Price will likely remain trading within where price is currently capped (Supply: 1.36386 – 1.36265, Demand: 1.35623 – 1.35984) during the low-volume sessions, once volatility picks up, a break will likely happen at either area just mentioned above, once it does, we’ll have more of an idea on possible direction.
Referring back to yesterday’s analysis, price was expected to sell into the round number 1.67000 for a possible bullish reaction to be seen. The buyers were definitely active around this level,
Something interesting happened here that may be worth noting for when it happens again. Look at the first reaction at the round number (levels above), now look at the candles after, do they portray bullish conviction with energy? The brown circle highlights the second touch, this was more than likely because buy orders were all used up, thus pro money began selling hard to break deeper into the sell stops below the round number, stopping out all the traders who love to move their stops to breakeven too quick! Again, do the candles after the tail portray bullish conviction? At the time of writing the short answer is no, so be prepared for possible lower prices soon.
- Areas to watch for buy orders: 1.66630, 1.67000.
- Areas to watch for sell orders: 1.67622.
- Most likely scenario: The likely target for the present downswing is still the daily S/R flip level below at 1.66630, however, before this is reached, price may rally to the daily S/R flip level above at 1.67622 to collect liquidity (buy orders) before selling hard, and breaking/consuming the round number 1.67000.
This pair did completely the opposite to what was reported may happen in yesterday’s analysis. Price broke supply north at 0.92745 – 0.92570, and spiked the round number 0.93000, nearly hitting the minor demand/supply flip area at 0.93345 – 0.93186 meaning the brown circled area was a consumption wick, not a fakeout.
Where do we go from here? Well, all it means is price is not ready to break lower just yet, even if the higher timeframes are emphasizing sells as per the weekly analysis on Monday.
- Areas to watch for buy orders: 0.92745 – 0.92570.
- Areas to watch for sell orders: 0.93345 – 0.93186.
- Most likely scenario: The sellers at the round number 0.93000 are more than likely consumed around this area, so price will more than likely trade within the demand/supply flip area above at 0.93345 – 0.93186 and the demand/supply flip area below at 0.92745 – 0.92570. Once a break is seen either side, we’ll have more of an idea of where price may be heading.
Price was able to travel down to the demand area at 101.335 – 101.472 because most of the demand/buyers had already been consumed (marked with brown circles). This pair is currently trading within the demand area just mentioned and a minor supply area at 101.886 – 101.778.
- Areas to watch for buy orders: 101.335 – 101.472, 100.927/101.000.
- Areas to watch for sell orders: 101.886 – 101.778, 102.365 – 102.128.
- Most likely scenario: Higher prices are still very likely due to higher-timeframe influence. However, a drop in price could well be seen to the fakeout area at 100.927/101.000 for a rally to be happen. The safest bet now is to wait for a positive break either above supply at 101.886 – 101.778 or demand at 101.335 – 101.472. If a break above is seen, watch for likely sellers to be waiting around the supply area at 102.365 – 102.128, likewise, if a break below is seen, look for likely buyers to be lurking around the fakeout area mentioned above.