The charts levels and zones will be color coded for the benefit of readers as follows:
Weekly TF = Black. Daily TF = Gold. 4hr TF = Brown
As reported yesterday, the Brits and the Americans were both on holiday, leaving very little to talk about technically. At the open, price gapped down, and faked the low 1.36157, before heading up to the 4hr demand/supply flip area at 1.36696 – 1.36432, incorporating the daily support , now acting resistance at 1.36432 within. If price does see a reaction south here today, the most likely near-term target would be at the demand area below at 1.35623 – 1.35984 with the round number 1.36000 just above.
- Areas to watch for buy orders: 1.35623 – 1.35984, 1.36000.
- Areas to watch for sell orders: 1.36696 – 1.36432.
- Most likely scenario: Much the same as yesterday’s analysis, pro money will likely use the demand/supply flip area at 1.36696-1.36432 to push prices down to the recently-noted 4hr demand area at 1.35623 – 1.35984 with the round number just above at 1.36000, as it appears there’s very little buyers/demand left to stop price.
Similar to the Euro, we saw a small rally yesterday even the expected low volume. Price nearly touched a supply area marked with a brown check sign at 1.68752 – 1.68558 falling short around 3 pips or so.
This pair is in a rather difficult situation, on the weekly timeframe, price is currently trading between support (top of the long-term consolidation) at 1.67980 and supply at 1.76290 – 1.70490, whilst on the daily timeframe, pro money consumed most of the buyers around the low (support) 1.67622, but has yet to reach the supply area above at 1.69963 – 1.69514 for a possible push down, so price remains capped between these two areas on this timeframe.
- Areas to watch for buy orders: 1.67835 – 1.68062, 1.68000.
- Areas to watch for sell orders: 1.68752 – 1.68558, 1.69000, (Daily supply) 1.69963 – 1.69514.
- Most likely scenario: Today, we will likely see price break the 4hr upper supply area at 1.68752 – 1.68558, why? Because the daily timeframe analysis is presently emphasizing shorts for now with most of the buyers being consumed at support on this timeframe at 1.67622. However, looking at the 4hr chart, notice that the majority of sellers at the round number 1.69000 above were consumed a while back, and the wicks circled in black likely indicate supply consumption, possibly leaving the way clear for a rally to daily supply at 1.69963 – 1.69514 for the overall bigger push down. Taking all of this into consideration, do not expect price just to break through the 4hr upper supply and round number (levels above) without any bearish reaction, with even the possibility of a retrace down to 4hr demand at 1.67835 – 1.68062 incorporating the round number at 1.68000 within before a push above is seen.
As expected, yesterday showed us very little action, and technically nothing has changed. Today, however, should bring more volatility and a break may be seen out of where price is currently capped (Supply: 0.92745 – 0.92570, Demand: 0.92037 – 0.92203).
Much the same as yesterday’s analysis, if a break lower happens, price has very little to stop it from reaching the 4hr decision point (demand) at0.91542 – 0.91741with the daily S/R flip level just below at 0.91446.
Likewise, if a break above happens, there’s little in the way to stop buyers pushing price up to the minor demand/supply flip area at 0.93345 – 0.93186.
- Areas to watch for buy orders: 0.91542 – 0.91741, 0.91446 (Daily S/R flip level).
- Areas to watch for sell orders: 0.92745 – 0.92570.
- Most likely scenario: With more volume expected today, and price seeing a recent bearish reaction off of the weekly S/R flip area (0.93718), along with the daily timeframe being in a weak-looking demand area at 0.92054 – 0.92649, the 4hr chart will likely see price break the lower demand area (0.92037 – 0.92203) along with the round number 0.92000 dropping towards the decision point/demand area at 0.91542 – 0.91741, with the daily S/R flip level just below at 0.91446. Do bear in mind though, price may spike to supply at 0.92745 – 0.92570 first to collect the much-needed liquidity for a possible push down.
Price did not move much at all yesterday, we saw a few minor tests north of the round number 102.000, other than that though; nothing has changed which was to be expected.
Similar to the last analysis, take a look at the two brown circles, these areas are likely where pro money retraced price to fill left-over buy orders, thus consuming most of the demand (buyers) at the base and just above minor demand (101.335 – 101.472), so in the future price should slide through here with ease trading deeper within this area.
- Areas to watch for buy orders: 101.335 – 101.472.
- Areas to watch for sell orders: 102.000, 102.327 – 102.128.
- Most likely scenario: Considering price has reacted bullishly to a weekly S/R flip level at 101.328, confirming the level once again, a bullish fakeout of the daily demand area at 101.207 – 101.754 has been seen, higher prices are then to be expected. On the 4hr timeframe, price will likely retrace back to the 4hr demand area below at 101.335 – 101.472, to aid a likely rally higher, however, do expect some sort of bearish reaction at the round number 102.000 and supply above at 102.327 – 102.128 before the rally continues.