The charts levels and zones will be color coded for the benefit of readers as follows:
Weekly TF = Black. Daily TF = Gold. 4hr TF = Brown
Regarding this pair, there is not much to add, technically not much has changed which was expected due to lack of high-impacting data released yesterday. We are still at somewhat of a crossroads with the Euro. Price spiked above (marked with a brown circle) supply (1) at 1.37309 – 1.36890, but is very difficult to tell the real intentions of this spike at this time. For the above spike to be considered a fakeout, price would need to consume the 4hr demand area below at 1.36434 – 1.36696 which was mentioned in last Friday’s analysis.
Conversely, the same applies for the area marked with a black circle below, was this area a fakeout of daily demand at 1.36727 – 1.37313? The only way to know with high probability is for us to wait and see which area gets consumed first, be it supply (1), or 4hr demand below (levels above).
- Areas to watch for buy orders: 1.36434 – 1.36696
- Areas to watch for sell orders: 1.37309 – 1.36890, 1.37487 – 1.37374.
- Most likely scenario: Like yesterday, today is very quiet. However, be prepared for price to fakeout above supply area (1) at 1.37309 – 1.36890 to the demand/supply flip area above at 1.37487 – 1.37374. Price remains capped between supply (levels above), and a demand area below at 1.36434 – 1.36696 which could provide short-term buying opportunities if price reaches this level.
Near-term demand at 1.67835 – 1.68062 was hit, with price not even dropping down to the round number 1.68000 to collect liquidity before taking off north. The reaction seen so far looks fair considering the demand area is not the best looking. For price to show us we are going higher for a possible visit to the supply area above at 1.68824 – 1.68714, the high of 1.68383 would need to see a positive close above.
At the time of writing, price remains capped between demand at 1.67835 – 1.68062 and supply at 1.68824 – 1.68714.
- Areas to watch for buy orders: 1.67835 – 1.68062, 1.68000.
- Areas to watch for sell orders: 1.68824 – 1.68714.
- Most likely scenario: Price will likely drop from where price is currently trading, it seems buyers may have run out of opposing traders to sell to! The drop will likely bring price back to the demand area just below at 1.67835 – 1.68062, but this time trading deeper into the zone to collect liquidity from the round number 1.68000, that way pro money might have enough liquidity locked in to move prices north to near-term supply seen at 1.68824 – 1.68714.
Similar to the Euro, technically not much has changed since Monday’s analysis. Pro money has yet to take a shot at either minor demand below at 0.93186 – 0.93345 or supply above at 0.94253 – 0.94040, which are both presently capping price either side.
- Areas to watch for buy orders: 0.93186 – 0.93345, 0.92570 – 0.92745.
- Areas to watch for sell orders: 0.94253 – 0.94040, 0. 95434 – 0.94862.
- Most likely scenario: Exactly the same as the last analysis conducted. Price still remains capped either side of the market by a supply area at 0.94253 – 0.94040 and a demand zone at 0.93186 – 0.93345. These two areas have been giving nice short-term trading opportunities. However, a break of either area is imminent. If, today a break above is seen, watch the fresh daily supply area above at 0.95434 – 0.94862 for a possible bearish reaction. Likewise, if a break below happens, look for likely buyers to come into the market at the demand area highlighted below at 0.92570 – 0.92745 as mentioned in last Monday’s weekly outlook.
The lower (buffer) trendline along with the weak-looking demand area at 101.207 – 101.754, and the S/R weekly flip level at 101.328 have all been consumed on this timeframe, however do keep in mind the daily timeframe is yet to show a positive close lower as the candle has not closed. Price is currently reacting off of the underside of the daily demand area just mentioned above; this has yet to be proved as a supply/resistance area. In Monday’s analysis it was reported if a break below the daily demand area happens, to be prepared for buyers to come in at around 100.927/101.000 area, which may help facilitate a possible fakeout in the future.
- Areas to watch for buy orders: 100.927/101.000.
- Areas to watch for sell orders: 101.451 (underside of the trendline).
- Most likely scenario: Price will likely retrace north from where is it currently trading, a likely area to be used could well be the underside of the weekly trendline that was just broken which may act as temporary resistance. A drop may then be seen to the fakeout area below at 100.927/101.000. The coming few days will give us more information regarding whether the daily demand area at 100.927/101.000 is truly consumed and is not just performing a fakeout.