The charts levels and zones will be color coded for the benefit of readers as follows:
Weekly TF = Black. Daily TF = Gold. 4hr TF = Brown
Yesterday’s price action was particularly sluggish, and has so far done as expected. Price still remains capped between 4hr demand at 1.37374 – 1.37487 and 4hr supply at 1.37941 – 1.37712.
This pair is currently trading within a higher timeframe daily range (supply: 1.39669 – 1.39342, demand 1.36727 – 1.37313) coupled with a daily S/R flip level at 1.37931 just above the 4hr supply area just mentioned, never forget the higher timeframes as it may be disastrous to your accounts one day!
- Areas to watch for buy orders: 1.36727 – 1.37313 (Daily demand area)
- Areas to watch for sell orders: 1.37941 – 1.37712, 1.38286 – 1.38122.
- Most likely scenario: The most likely scenario has not changed much since the last analysis was undertaken. price may break south, however before doing that price will likely spike supply which was previous demand (1) (1.38286 – 1.38122), this will possibly stop out some daily timeframe traders attempting to go short at the daily S/R flip level (1.37931). The reasoning behind this is because pro money requires orders to move the markets. For price to drop to daily demand, pro money will require buy orders to sell into, they get these much-needed orders by pushing price up, allowing lower timeframe traders to see this momentum and to jump on board this new trend as it will appear on the lower timeframes, thus creating buy orders (liquidity), additionally, the daily S/R flip area may have big sell orders waiting with buy stops just above, this would be gratefully accepted by pro money.
This pair shows price breaking the temporary range (supply: 1.68536 – 1.68725 demand: 1.68072 – 1.68260) during the more volatile sessions as was reported may happen in the last analysis. The break above may be swing traders locking in profits from the previous move down.
The chart below shows how price is currently reacting off of the round number 1.69000, with near-term demand seen below at 1.68333 – 1.68513. Nonetheless, do be careful here as this may be just a ‘dummy’ demand area used for a fakeout that would hit the stop orders of traders who were buying there. These stops, usually set just below the lower limits of the area would give pro money more liquidity (sell orders) to facilitate/assist pro money buy orders below at demand (1.68072 – 1.68260) along with daily trendline confluence.
If a break above this round number is seen, this would enable pro money to get price back up to the origin of the drop seen from the 4hr supply area (1.70410 – 1.69840) to collect more liquidity for a possible bigger move down.
- Areas to watch for buy orders: 1.68072 – 1.68260.
- Areas to watch for sell orders: 1.69000, 1.70410 – 1.69840.
- Most likely scenario: Price will likely trade between acting supply at 1.69000 and newly-formed demand at 1.68333 – 1.68513 during lower-volume sessions. Once volatility picks up today, we may see a spike down through this demand to the lower demand at 1.68072 – 1.68260.
Technically, there’s little change to this pair. Monday’s price action was lethargic to say the least managing to move around 36 pips or so at the time of writing.
Price remains capped between supply at 0.94253 – 0.94040 and minor demand at 0.93186 – 0.93345 along with a 4hr S/R flip level just below at 0.93167.
Do bear in mind, we are currently within a weak daily supply area at 0.94468 – 0.93758 due to a spike consuming sellers seen on the 10/04/14, it may be a good idea to give short orders a miss until a direction has been shown.
- Areas to watch for buy orders: 0.93186 – 0.93345, 0.92570 – 0.92745
- Areas to watch for sell orders: 0.94253 – 0.94040, 0.95434 – 0.94862
- Most likely scenario: Much the same as yesterday, price will likely trade between supply and demand (supply: 0.94253 – 0.94040 demand: 0.93186 – 0.93345) during the lower-volume sessions. Once volatility picks up price may break upper supply at 0.94253 – 0.94040. Before this happens though a break of demand (0.93186 – 0.93345) may be seen to collect liquidity from buyers’ stops for the push up. Traders should be cautious trading where price is currently capped as a break is expected very soon.
At present this pair is seen to be reacting off of the S/R flip level at 102.128 as was reported may happen in the last analysis.
The selling pressure was no match for buyers yesterday at the round number 102.000 which was just within the supply/demand flip area at 102.017 – 101.865.
For the sellers to take over, demand below has to first be consumed at the round number – supply/demand flip area (levels above), the next area of demand should be quite obvious at 101.536 as per the chart below.
A break above the S/R flip area where price is currently trading at would see price enter into a price void, basically meaning, there is room for price to move until the next S/D zone, which in this case is upper supply area number 2 at 103.055 – 102.742.
- Areas to watch for buy orders: 102.000, 102.017 – 101.865, 101.536.
- Areas to watch for sell orders: 102.128, 103.055 – 102.742.
- Most likely scenario: Price has so far done as expected. We will likely see a retrace from the S/R flip level at 102.128 and begin work on consuming near-term demand areas (102.000, 102.017 – 101.865, 101.536) until price hits the BIG ONE – the weekly S/R flip level (101.328) seen at the lower end of current daily demand (101.207 – 101.754). However, a spike/fakeout into the price void above the S/R flip level is not out of the question before a drop is seen.