Global Markets: 

  • China HSBC Manufacturing PMI (APR): 48.1, Expected: 48.4, Previous: 48.0
  • Australia Building Approvals (m/m): -3.5%, Expected: 1.0%, Previous: -5.0%
  • Australia ANZ Job Advertisements (m/m): 2.2%, Previous: 1.4%
  • Australia AiG Performance of Services Index (APR): 48.6, Previous: 48.9
  • Japanese and Korean markets are closed for public holidays
  • Asian stock indices are mostly lower this morning
  • The Shanghai Composite lost 0.60 % while the Hang Seng declined almost 2 %
  • Gold at $1307 (+0.40 %), Silver at $19.56 (+0.10 %), Crude Oil at $99.82 (+0.05 %)
  • US 10 year yield stands at 2.586

 FX Flows/Orders: 

  • AUD/USD – the pair declined after weaker than expected Chinese Manufacturing PMI, reaching a fresh session low of 0.9252. Bids noted around the 0.9220 level. The stops beneath have been cleared after Friday’s NFP release and no larger stop clusters seen until sub-0.92. Focus is now on tomorrow’s RBA rate decision, with most of the banks expecting no change in interest rates and a continuing neutral policy stance.
  • AUD/JPY – leveraged names have been sellers of the pair overnight and stops beneath 94.50 were cleared. Initial support at 94.00; a break beneath could pave the way for a 93.20 test.
  • EUR/USD – is still struggling with solid resistance ahead of the 1.39 level, but a breakout seems increasingly likely. Speculators are unlikely to be aggressive ahead of Thursday’s ECB meeting, but the Euro is remaining very well-bid and topside stops will attract price soon. Banks are still seeing stops through 1.3890 and in better size at 1.3910, while bids are building at 1.3820/25. The key support level is 1.3775, while initial resistance should be found at 1.3920.
  • EUR/JPY – sizeable stops below the 141.00 level + momentum sellers. Not much support until 140.00 then.
  • GBP/USD – should be quiet today with London off for the Early May Bank Holiday. Bit less of risk events out of the UK this week, with Services PMI tomorrow and Industrial & Manufacturing Production on Friday being the highlights. The Bank of England meeting on Thursday is very likely to be a non-event.
  • USD/CAD – huge option expiries (up to $8 billion reported) for today’s NY Cut (14:00 GMT) at 1.10 will keep the pair pegged to that level. Bids at 1.0950, while offers resting at 1.1020.
  • USD/JPY – demand from an Asian reserve manager supported the pair in the early Asian session, but didn’t hold for too long and stops sub-102.00 were eventually triggered. The increasing tensions in Ukraine are keeping the JPY bid. Bids noted around 101.50, while the big support level being 101.20. Topside, offers at 102.20 and then pre-102.50. Main event today will the US ISM Non-Manufacturing PMI, released at 14:00 GMT.

 Upcoming Events: 

  • 08:30 GMT – Euro Zone Sentix Investor Confidence (14.2)
  • 09:00 GMT – Euro Zone PPI (-0.2 % MoM, -1.7 % YoY)
  • 14:00 GMT – US ISM Non-Manufacturing PMI (54.1)