4hr TF.

Has this pair given us some indication of direction here? The range has clearly been broken now with price just missing the previous 52-week highs at 1.38934.

So, where will price move next? Bearing in mind we have the NFP announcement due soon.

Let’s take a closer look:

  • Supply has been getting consumed bit-by-bit around the previous 52-week highs (level mentioned above). Notice how every time price makes a higher high, more sellers are being consumed, enabling prices to climb higher.
  • The NFP is notoriously volatile; prices will normally be seen consolidating before the announcement is made. Professional traders make money from less- informed traders, during NFP is no different. We may see prices consolidate around the previous yearly highs, and then dependent on the result, well-funded traders will require liquidity. Liquidity as of now can be seen at the bottom of the range at 1.37894, also remembering this level is also a minor S/R flip area on the Daily TF shown on Monday’s weekly forecast, so be very watchful of this area.
  • Again dependent on NFP results price may shoot north to the previous monthly high level at 1.39669, the reason being is all those wicks marked with red arrows, this shows supply consumption, the next best area for liquidity/fresh sell orders will be at the very top, the origin of the down leg.




  • Areas to watch for buy orders: 1.37894
  • Areas to watch for sell orders: 1.39669
  • Most likely scenario: Price will likely test either of the above areas dependent on NFP results.


4hr TF.

Higher highs are still being seen into daily supply (1.70372 – 1.68747). Check out the wicks that have formed, this could be supply consumption at the round number 1.69000, and traders putting in their sell orders due to being in higher timeframe supply.

An important demand area at 1.68069 – 1.68280 formed on 30/4/14 is the origin of the rally up into daily supply so this remains an area to be watchful of.

gbpusdh4 number 1


During announcements such as NFP, this pair really enjoys spiking areas when such a volatile announcement is upon us. Taking a closer look within daily supply, a nice 4hr supply area has been spotted at 1.704321.69811, which contains the big figure 1.70000. The reason this supply area is good is because it is the origin of a huge down move. Normally, when big players enter the markets they cannot do as the retail traders do, that is, placing a sell order at xyz without considering who will provide them liquidity. They have to enter in small chunks due to their lot size, if they did not price would move too far from their entries due to possible lack of liquidity and/or poor slippage, along with obviously not wanting to give their true intentions away! So the point is there may well be huge orders left unfilled around this level, and may well be triggered very soon.



The chart below shows the added supply level. Dependent on the NFP results, prices may short north to the 4hr supply within daily supply (levels mentioned above) or we could see a drop to demand at 1.68069 – 1.68280.


gbpusdh4 number 2


  • Areas to watch for buy orders: 1.68069 – 1.68280.
  • Areas to watch for sell orders: 1.704321.69811, 1.70000.
  • Most likely scenario: Price will likely test either of the above areas dependent on NFP results.


4hr TF.

As per the last analysis, we did see price hit supply at the minor S/R flip level (0.93124). This would have made a nice short entry with little to no drawdown.

This week has seen price consolidate between supply at 0.93124 and demand at 0.922610.92505 and has not shown much excitement at all. Maybe the NFP will change this, also not forgetting this consolidation has been taking place around daily demand at 0.92037 – 0.92825. This area has been mentioned a lot this week due to slow price movement.

Dependent on NFP results, near-term fresh supply is seen at 0.93784 – 0.93571 coinciding nicely with a weekly S/R flip level at 0.93718. Near-term demand is seen at 0.92029 – 0.92299 which if price does visit, this will be for the second time.


  • Areas to watch for buy orders: 0.92029 – 0.92299
  • Areas to watch for sell orders: 0.93784 – 0.93571
  • Most likely scenario: Price will likely test either of the above areas dependent on NFP results.


4hr TF.

Due to the reaction at demand (101.847 – 102.026) for the second time, a consolidation has formed between the previous weekly highs (102.781) and the demand area just mentioned. This consolidation may see a break out during NFP.


1hr TF.


As expected price reacted at supply that was previous demand at 102.531 – 102.312. Take a look at the current price action marked with black arrows, notice the tails? This may be demand consumption here meaning price is clearing out all buying pressure from small demand zones allowing price to drop through with ease.

The next near-term fresh supply is seen at 102.614 – 102.557, and near-term demand is at the round number area (102.000) which is just above a Daily demand level (101.236 – 101.769)

Be vigilant of the above near term areas, as this pair, like the GBP love to spike levels quickly during volatile news announcements such as the NFP.


  • Areas to watch for buy orders: 102.000
  • Areas to watch for sell orders: 102.614 – 102.557
  • Most likely scenario: Price will likely test either of the above areas dependent on NFP results