Global Markets:

  • Australia Producer Price Index (Q1) (y/y): 2.5%, Expected: 2.1%, Previous: 1.9%
  • New Zealand ANZ Commodity Price (APR): -4.0%, Previous: -0.1%
  • Japan Unemployment Rate: 3.6%, Expected: 3.6%, Previous: 3.6%
  • Asian markets are mixed as of 05:00 GMT; Nikkei is down 0.40 % while the Shanghai Composite and Hang Seng both gained 0.40 %
  • Australia’s ASX is unchanged on the day
  • Gold at $1284 (+0.05 %), Silver at $19.00 (-0.18 %), Crude Oil at $99.41 (-0.02 %)
  • US 10 year yield stands at 2.62

FX Flows/Orders:

  • AUD/USD – supply proved again strong above 0.93 and the pair is back in the middle of the weekly range. Things are likely to remain quiet for the Aussie ahead of the NFP release. On the order book, dealers see sizeable stops through 0.9220, while topside, there is good supply ahead of the 0.9320 level.
  • AUD/NZD – dealers are talking about decent demand between 1.07 and 1.0720.
  • EUR/USD – large offers appeared on the interbank platforms above 1.3880, which once again capped the topside. The pair slowly declined since then and hit a daily low of 1.3856. Banks still see larger stops through 1.3890 and 1.3910 and expect a gap higher should we break through the first level. No bigger offers seen until 1.3920. To the downside, good support expected at 1.3820/25.
  • EUR/GBP – quite resilient for now, but a clear break below 0.82 would trigger more stops and also selling from momentum funds. Not much support until 0.8150.
  • EUR/CHF – bank traders see solid orders on both side of the range (1.2170 & 1.2220) and expect those levels to hold in the near-term.
  • GBP/USD – another strong PMI print out of the UK yesterday, which led to a rally up to 1.6920. If Construction PMI comes in strong this morning, the pair could rally towards 1.6960-70, but a break above 1.70 seems unlikely ahead of the NFP release. Initial support at 1.6860/65 and strong bids around 1.6820/25. To the topside, banks did mentioned offers ahead of 1.6950, but again, little resistance ahead of the 1.70 level.
  • USD/JPY – once again stuck in a very small range and that is unlikely to change pre-NFP. There should be good selling interest starting from 102.75, up to 103.00. To the downside, dealers see large stops through 101.90 and larger bids between 101.70 and 101.80.

Upcoming Events:

  • 07:45 GMT – Italian Manufacturing PMI (52.8)
  • 07:50 GMT – French Manufacturing PMI (50.9)
  • 07:55 GMT – German Manufacturing PMI (54.2)
  • 08:00 GMT – Euro Zone Manufacturing PMI (53.3)
  • 08:30 GMT – UK Construction PMI (62.0)
  • 12:30 GMT – US Nonfarm Payrolls (210k)
  • 12:30 GMT – US Unemployment Rate (6.6 %)