Global Markets:

  • BOJ keeps monetary policy steady by unanimous vote, pledges to increase monetary base at annual pace of 60-70 trln yen
  • Australia Private Sector Credit (m/m): 0.4%, Expected: 0.4%, Previous: 0.4%
  • New Zealand ANZ Business Confidence: 64.8%, Previous: 67.3%
  • New Zealand ANZ Activity Outlook (APR): 52.5%, Previous: 58.2%
  • New Zealand Building Permits s.a. (MAR) (m/m): 8.3%, Previous: -1.7%
  • Japan Industrial Production (m/m) [P]: 0.3%, Expected: 0.5%, Previous: -2.3%
  • United Kingdom Gfk Consumer Confidence (APR): -3, Expected: -4, Previous: -5
  • BoC Governor Poloz says inflation in Canada remains low, lower than expected inflation may cause BoC to lower rates
  • Asian markets are mostly lower as of 05:00 GMT
  • The Nikkei lost 0.10 %, the Shanghai Composite and ASX are unchanged and the Hang Seng dropped 1.40 %
  • Gold at $1293 (-0.20 %), Silver at $19.42 (-0.55 %), Crude Oil at $100.48 (-0.80 %)
  • US 10 year yield at 2.69

 

FX Flows/Orders:

  • AUD/USD – offers at 0.9280 were taken out, driven by demand from leveraged names. Supply seen ahead of the 0.93 level and stops have again accumulated above. Commodity currencies are bid across the board, but we might see some position covering ahead of the FOMC statement today. To the downside, minor bids at 0.9250 and better demand seen in the 0.9220-30 area.
  • EUR/AUD – briefly traded above 1.50 yesterday, but had a sharp reversal since then, dropping back below 1.49. Focus is now on the 200 daily moving average around 1.4845, with a daily close below indicating a test of the 1.4650 level could be ahead.
  • EUR/CHF – ran into solid selling interest from model funds above 1.22; bids seen at 1.2170-75
  • EUR/GBP – took out the stops above 0.8250 after a slightly lower than expected UK GDP release, but dropped to 0.82 after German CPI missed expectations. Momentum selling expected on a break of the big figure; minor bids at 0.8180, but not much support until 0.8150-55.
  • EUR/USD – the miss in German CPI data led to a 50 pips decline at the NY open and the pair has been consolidating in a 20 pips range since then. Dealers saw mixed flows after the data with hedge funds and US corporations sellers, while real money funds and EU corporations were noted buyers. Bids are reported at 1.3780, while there are sizeable stops beneath that level. To the topside, expected renewed selling interest from leveraged funds towards 1.3850 and 1.3880.
  • GBP/USD – the post-GDP drop attracted demand from leveraged funds and Middle East sovereign names and the pair quickly recovered. No UK risk events today, which might keep GBP/USD consolidating unless the FOMC statement delivers any surprises. 1.6770 key support.
  • NZD/USD – bounced off the 0.8515 level driven by demand from real money funds and the recovery in other commodity currencies. Initial resistance at the 200 HMA at 0.8573 and then at 0.86. Stops seen through 0.8610.
  • USD/CAD – larger unwinding of long positions yesterday and bids at 1.10 were weak. It took a decline to 1.0940 before the pair ran into any better bids. 1.0920 is now the key intraday level and a break below would suggest a move back to 1.0860 is in the cards.
  • USD/JPY – little reaction to the BoJ announcement, focus is now on the press conference that will be held between 06:00 and 08:00 GMT today.

Upcoming Events:

  • 06:00 GMT – German Retail Sales (-0.7 % MoM, 1.6 % YoY)
  • 06:45 GMT – French Consumer Spending (0.3 % MoM9
  • 07:00 GMT – Spanish GDP (0.4 % QoQ, 0.5 % YoY)
  • 07:00 GMT – Spanish Retail Sales (0.1 % YoY)
  • 07:55 GMT – German Unemployment Change (-10k)
  • 07:55 GMT – German Unemployment Rate (6.7 %)
  • 08:00 GMT – Norwegian Unemployment Rate (3.5 %)
  • 09:00 GMT – Euro Zone CPI (0.8 % YoY) / Core CPI (1.0 %)
  • 09:00 GMT – Italian CPI (0.2 % MoM, 0.6 % YoY)
  • 12:15 GMT – US ADP Nonfarm Employment Change (210k)
  • 12:30 GMT – Canadian GDP (0.2 % MoM, 2.5 % YoY)
  • 12:30 GMT – Canadian RMPI (1.2 % MoM, 7.0 % YoY)
  • 12:30 GMT – US GDP (1.2 % QoQ)
  • 13:45 GMT – Chicago PMI (56.7)
  • 18:00 GMT – FED Interest Rate Decision & FOMC Statement