Global Markets:

  • New Zealand Trade Balance (y/y): 800M, Expected: 920M, Previous: 650M
  • RBNZ’s Spencer: Loan limits curbing house-price inflation
  • Asian equity markets are mixed as of 05:00 GMT
  • The Shanghai Composite is up 0.20 % while the Hang Seng gained 0.40 %
  • Australia’s ASX lost 0.90 % on the day while the KOSPI dropped 0.25 %
  • Japanese markets are closed for a holiday

FX Flows/Orders:

  • AUD/USD – good selling from leveraged names in the past two trading sessions as they continue to unwind long positions. Dealers are noting offers at 0.9280 and 0.93, while solid bids are resting at 0.9220. Risk is to the downside, with a test of the 0.92 level more likely in the near-term.
  • EUR/GBP – demand from European corporate names kept the pair bid yesterday and there is talk of possible central bank demand (German CB, the Bundesbank) towards the month-end. It looks probable that the stops above 0.8250 will be cleared soon.
  • EUR/USD – finally moved yesterday! In the current low-volatility environment, even a 50 pips move seems big. Bank traders mentioned stops getting triggered on the way up to 1.3875 + buying from Russians amid reserve diversification. The pair ran into larger supply from real money funds ahead of 1.3880, which capped the topside. Another bunch of sizeable stop loss orders reported through 1.3890 and then 1.3910. A break above 1.3880 will likely cause a gap higher with little resistance until 1.3940/50.
  • GBP/USD – focus is on the GDP release this morning. The pair reached a fresh 5-year high yesterday, but retraced off the level amid profit-taking from speculators and general USD strength.
  • NZD/USD – dragged lower by the Australian Dollar. Next support at 0.85, break below will pave the way for 0.8440 test.
  • USD/JPY – was very quiet overnight as Tokyo traders were off for a holiday. Bids expected towards 102.20, while offers are lined up around 102.70/75.
  • USD/CAD – dealers say that the bids around the 1.10 level have reduced and they expect that the market will go for the stops at 1.0980-85 soon.

Upcoming Events:

  • 07:00 GMT – German GfK Consumer Climate (8.5)
  • 08:00 GMT – Spain Unemployment Rate (25.85 %)
  • 09:00 GMT – Italian Retail Sales (0.4 % MoM)
  • 09:30 GMT – UK GDP (0.9 % QoQ, 3.2 % YoY)
  • 13:00 GMT – German CPI (-0.1 % MoM, 1.4 % YoY)
  • 15:00 GMT – Euro Zone COnsumer Confidence (-9.0)
  • 15:00 GMT – US CB Consumer Confidence (83.0)
  • 20:30 GMT – Bank of Canada Governor Poloz speaks