Global Markets:

  • Asian markets are mixed as of 06:00 GMT, with the Nikkei down 0.10 %, Shanghai Composite up 0.40 % and Hang Seng losing 0.20 % on the day
  • Gold at $1286 (+0.10 %), Silver at $19.82 (+0.10 %), Crude Oil at $100.35 (+0.05 %)
  • US 10 year yields stand at 2.795

FX Flows/Orders:

  • USD/JPY caught in a tight range; bids from leveraged funds and Japanese importers remain at 103.50/60, stops building through 103.40
  • Topside, supply from exporters seen at 104.20 up to 104.80; take-profit offers from speculators increase towards 104.50
  • Dealers note leveraged & model funds and real money names were the main sellers of the Euro after the Draghi press conference
  • In EUR/USD, we briefly traded sub-1.37, but are consolidating now ahead of key US data releases; offers towards 1.3750 are solid; to the downside, intraday support at 1.3680 and 1.3642
  • Sizeable stops noted sub-0.8250 in EUR/GBP

Market Sentiment:

The European Central bank left rates unchanged across the board, as expected, despite the downside surprise in the last CPI release. The ECB keeps their easing bias and Draghi noted that the Council has discussed negative interest rates and large-scale bond purchases in order to tackle deflation concerns. Traders will pay even more attention to inflation data this month, as another weak print could see the ECB acting as early as next month.

It should be a quiet European trading session ahead, as there are not important data releases and interest is low pre-NFP. US data in form of Non-Farm Payrolls (200k forecast) and the Unemployment rate (6.6 % forecast), both released at 13:30 GMT, will be main highlights.

Upcoming Events:

  • 11:00 GMT – German Factory Orders (0.1 % MoM)
  • 13:30 GMT – US NFP – Nonfarm Payrolls (200k)
  • 13:30 GMT – US Unemployment Rate (6.6 %)
  • 13:30 GMT – Canadian Employment Change (20k)
  • 13:30 GMT – Canadian Unemployment Rate (7.0 %)
  • 15:00 GMT – Canadian Ivey PMI (59.0)