The German Ifo Business Climate posted a value close to the anticipated one, a fact which did not generate strong moves. However, better than forecast U.S. Consumer Confidence brought the pair lower on the back of U.S. Dollar strength.
The move above 1.3830 experienced Monday was nullified by yesterday’s drop. Tensions regarding the in Ukrainian crisis also subsided and the bears seem to be back in control of the pair. But the confluence zone of support created by the 200-period Exponential Moving Average and the level of 1.3770 is still not broken and we consider this to be the first barrier in front of falling prices. Resistance is located at 1.3830 while the first important support (apart from the confluence zone already mentioned) is 1.3700.
The day’s most anticipated event is the release of the U.S. Durable Goods Orders, scheduled at 12:30 pm GMT. All goods which are expected to be used for at least three years are considered durable and the purchase of such goods usually requires a larger investment from the part of the buyer. A better than expected value for today’s indicator suggests optimism among consumers and also means that production will be increased in the near future, to satisfy demand. The expected value is 1.1%, a hefty increase from the previous -1.0%
The pair has been in an uptrend for almost the entire year and yesterday we experienced the fourth consecutive bullish day, although movement slowed down considerably.
Price recently moved above the level of 0.9130 which so far acted as good resistance but due to the fact that lately the pair has been constantly rising, without a clear retracement, we anticipate a move below the mentioned resistance. Recent candles on a Daily and four-hour charts are small and their wicks are longer than the real body; also, the Stochastic on a four hour chart is showing a clear overbought condition. If the anticipated retracement occurs, the first lower target is represented by the resistance located at 0.9080 but keep in mind that the pair is in an uptrend so moves higher are also a distinct possibility.
Glenn Stevens, the Governor of the Reserve Bank of Australia will speak today at 6:00 am GMT in Hong Kong at the 17th Annual Credit Suisse Asian Investment Conference. Although the speech is not focused directly towards Australian monetary policy, strong movement may be experienced, depending on the Governor’s attitude and on the matters discussed. The U.S. data released today will have a direct impact on price behavior as well.